BOB 03/2010/09 Dated: 15.10.2010
Time of issue: 0830 hours IST
Sub: Depression over westcentral, adjoining northwest &
The depression over westcentral, adjoining northwest & eastcentral Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 15th October 2010 near latitude 18.50N and longitude 87.50E, about 450 km east-northeast of Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh), 300 km east-southeast of
Gopalpur (Orissa) and 350 km south of Digha (West Bengal).
The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system would intensify further into a deep depression and move northwestward and crossOrissa coast between Gopalpur and Paradip by 15th October 2010 evening/night.
Under the influence of this system, widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places would occur over coastal Orissa and isolated heavy to very heavy falls over interior Orissa, coastal areas of
Squally winds with speed reaching 45-55 kmph would occur along and off north Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and
Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off these coasts during this period. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea off these coasts.
The system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts are being informed accordingly.
Next bulletin will be issued at 1130 hrs IST of 15th October 2010.
In the above bulletin IMD still says that the distance was so large when satellite imagery of few hours before the issue of bulletin indicated a clear landfall!
Imd also mentions landfall by 15th Oct evening/night.
I BET AT THIS TIME I.E 15TH OCT NIGHT THE LOW WILL SETTLE OVER EASTERN MAHARASHTRA AND START CONSEQUENCES IN NAGPUR
IMD ALSO MENTIONED TO MAKE AN UPDATE ON 1130HRS WHICH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED
METD WEATHER HAD STARTED PREDICTING AND FORECASTING THE DEPRESSION BOB 03 FROM OCT 9,2010 WHEN LOW WAS YET TO BE FORMED. ALSO THE BEST POSSIBLE WEATHER RISK MAP WAS PUT WHICH TEND TO BE VERY ACCURATE THAN IMD (GOPALPUR AND PARADWIP AREAS)
THE BROADCASTING MEDIA WERE ALSO QUIET DURING THE ENTIRE HAPPENING AND NO ONE MADE A SPECIAL BROADCAST ON IT OTHER THAN NDTV
ON OCT 11,2010 METD WEATHER'S SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER AKSHAY DEORAS HAD INFORMED NDTV JOURNALIST GARGI RAWAT ABOUT THIS DEPRESSION. SHE TURNED POSITIVE AND ASSURED FOR A WARNING PROGRAMME.
NDTV HAS BEEN FLASHING CONTINUOUS NEWS AND NEWS REPORT SINCE YESTERDAY ON THIS LOW WHICH HAS BEEN VERY USEFUL
I THANK GARGI RAWAT AND HER TEAM FOR CO-OPERATING AND HELPING US.
REST NEWS CHANNELS WERE MUM
IF SUCH POOR IS THE SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST AND ALERT SYSTEM IN INDIA, CAN INDIA FACE A CAT 5 CYCLONE SUCCESSFULLY WITHOUT CAUSING A DAMAGE TO LIFE?
IT SURELY STANDS "NO"