Severe Weather Forecaster
Concerning- PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION (PDS),MARK 5 ALERT IN CONCERN TO LANDFALL ON CYCLONE JAL
CYCLONE JAL IS VERY VERY DANGEROUS AND CAN BE MORE DANGEROUS THAN CYCLONE AILA which happened in 2009. LOT OF DAMAGE EXPECTED FROM JAL
Category 1 Cyclone "JAL" in the bay of bengal is now on a final course before a landfall on Sunday
Jal as on Saturday morning remains 650km East-South east of Chennai,750km South East of Nellore.
Jal is right now entering a 20kt Vertical Wind shear stationed around 85E. The latest satellite imagery is showing the central core has shrinked a bit with the unorganization of rain bands around the LLC. So I expect that Cyclone Jal will weaken slightly due to the shear especially it will lose the symmetrical shape. The wind intensity might decrease by few km/hr but as the shears go away and Jal again enters a relaxed V.shear environment with a blend of warmer SST, 20kt building lower convergence and excellent divergence aloft, Jal will intensify again from Saturday late evening to Sunday morning hours and CIMSS expects wind speed to reach 85kt! that is 158km/hr and CAN GIVE Jal a status of Cat 2 Cyclone sometime tonight!
As day dawns, Jal might continue to be a Cat 2 cyclone but a developing 30kt V.shear might reduce the intensity for a permanent basis.
JAL IS AN INTENSE CYCLONE AND WILL MAKE A LANDFALL ON SUNDAY (7TH NOV 2010) EVENING PERIOD (AFTER 6PM) IN AN AREA SHOWN ON THE ATTACHED IMAGE(95% RISK). CHENNAI LIES IN THE RISK AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO BE HIT BY THIS SUPER CYCLONE
STATE OF SEA IS VERY ROUGH RIGHT NOW AND AS JAL MAKES A LANDFALL, STORM SURGE UPTO 5-8FT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS AND TOWNS NEAR THE COAST. STRONG WINDS NEAR TO 150KM/HR (GUST ) ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE TO SMALL HUTS,FEW BUILDINGS AND ALSO LIFE
DUE TO THIS,
METD WEATHER ISSUES A MARK 5 ALERT AND PDS (PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION) INITIATING FROM 0600HRS IST,7TH NOV 2010 UPTO 1200 HRS IST 8TH NOV 2010 ESPECIALLY FOR CHENNAI
THIS SITUATION IS VERY VERY DANGEROUS AND CAN BE AS DANGEROUS AS CYCLONE AILA which happened in 2009