No Weather threat for World Cup Finals- Mumbai

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

A CLEAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN MUMBAI ON SATURDAY,2ND APRIL 2011

NO INTERRUPTION OF RAINFALL,THUNDERSTORM

MAX TEMP - 32C

MIN TEMP - 23C

HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 50%

WINDS AROUND 19KM/HR AT MAX

- INDIA WILL TAKE ON SRI LANKA AT THE WC 2011 FINALS IN MUMBAI ON SATURDAY

Weather clears up in Mohali. Sunshine to continue today

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

After the Punjab Thunderstorm yesterday which also hammered Patiala with Rains and Thunderstorm at around 1130PM IST and Mohali some time ago,

Weather has CLEARED UP in Mohali.

CLEAR WEATHER is expected today with Max temp around 30C.

Afternoon winds from WNW are expected and might trigger a dust storm but that will not affect the game and the weather particularly

Since there are no convective conditions available around Punjab, NO RAIN/THUNDERSTORM WILL DISRUPT THE PLAY TODAY AT MOHALI AS INDIA TAKES ON PAKISTAN AT THE WORLD CUP 2011 SEMI FINAL-2

Weather to permit Ind Vs Pakistan Semi Finals at Mohali on Wednesday

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Rain and Thunderstorm was reported in Mohali and Chandigarh area during night hours of Tuesday.

Synopsis-

Due to presence of a mid level cyclone (WD) around Western Punjab added by sufficient day time heating,presence of MLCAPE,Strong Lifting around ENE of Ludhiana,Punjab Convection triggered as there was a mid level moisture permiting for cloud formations.

The rising air ( Lifting air parcel) with tremendous energy Theta E ( Kelvin) over 323K, CAPE of 239J and unstable lower layers of atmosphere.

Areas around Ludhiana, triggered the convection which travelled south. Cells merged quickly forming a Thunderstorm in Chandigarh and Mohali which caused rains and thunderstorm

The Radar image from DWR Delhi shows Severe Thunderstorm headed towards Patiala having the cloud top over 14km.

Animation here

TOP IMAGE SHOWS THE CLOUD NEAR CHANDIGARH.

Forecast-

WITH ABSENCE OF ALL CONDITIONS REQUIRED FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN PUNJAB,

NO RAINFALL/THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO HIT MOHALI DURING THE MATCH ON WEDNESDAY

MAX TEMP - 29C

MIN TEMP - 15C

WEATHER WILL BE CLEAR TO LIGHT CLOUDY.

How to forecast weather from Radar Images.

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Radar Images-

Radar is an acronym for Radio Detection and Ranging.

Radar works on Doppler Shift principle or Doppler Effect and so the weather radars are named as Doppler Radar.

Doppler Shift -( In simplified words)

When Observer and Source are in relative motion,there is a change in the frequency

( and likewise wavelength ) of a wave when detected by an observer when the source

of wave is moving with respect to the observer.

That is on a road, if an approaching car is blowing horn, the sound waves reaching the observer have higher frequency and smaller wavelength and so we hear a loud sound and the sound dims as the car passes by ( SEE IMAGE. APPROACHING CAR'S SOUND WAVE HAS HIGHER FREQUENCY AND LOWER WAVELENGTH)

The effect caused by approaching source is the Blue shift while that caused by sources moving away from observers is Red Shift and is widely used in ASTRONOMY

How Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) works?

Doppler Weather Radar works using the Doppler Effect by beaming a microwave signal from the Radar dish towards the clouds from the microwave transmitter.

The reflected beam is received by the receiver. The change in the frequencies of transmitted and received signal is calculated

Frequency is directly proportional to the velocity

Thus an increase in the frequency indicates velocity of the target( say clouds is increasing) while a decrease in frequency indicate decreasing velocity.

Thus the radars can detect Storm Motion Vectors

Radar in Mumbai and Nagpur

The recently installed RADAR in Mumbai and Nagpur are S band Radar

They have a wavelength of 8-15cm and frequency of 2-4GHz

Since the wavelength of this band is less, this wave is not easily attenuated and hence the RADAR have a range upto 500km!

The Indian Meteorological Dept has avail following datas from the radar product online

Foll are the included products

1] Maximum Reflectivity ( Z)

2] Plan Position Indicator

3] Volume Velocity Processing

4] Plan Position Indicator

5] Surface Rainfall Intensity

6] Precipitation Accumulation

1] Maximum Reflectivity-

This product determines the strength or intensity of the reflected beam ( Echo)

The stronger the reflectivity, the more intense cloud is.

By Analyzing the color codes of the Reflectivity image, we can determine the intensity of thunderstorm, expected precipitation from it, position of Hails etc.

Following color codes are used-

magenta: 65 dBZ (extremely heavy precipitation, possible hail)

red: 52 dBZ

yellow: 36 dBZ

green: 20 dBZ (light precipitation)

Above img-

The above image is a screen shot of Radar reflectivity around Atlanta,Georgia of 27th March 2011

The Intense white core represents stronger reflectivity of 74 dBz and the thunderstorm dropped hail of diameter 1.85" in the region

Once can determine the precipitation from the posted color code

For Weather Forecasters in India

Weather forecasters including me in India use the Doppler Image from IMD radars.

The above is the Radar image from Agartala,India

The main map shows concentric circle which is the field of radar. The blue, orange shades are the radar reflectivities from the region

Shown at the top of image is the Elevation plot or the structure of Thunderstorm from the ground.

Once can see the Radar view of Storm from 0-14km due to the radar. On the extreme right is the Reflectivity scale and left of it is the zoomed max reflectivity regions

2] Plan Position Indicator PPI

The plan position indicator (Z) has a range of 500km and determines a complete view of the area.

Zoomed reflectivity as seen in Max reflectivity plot is absent here.

2] Plan Position Indicator is a large scale map showing a field view of radius 500km

At Nagpur as a center

North extent- Sagar,MP

SE of Kota,Rajasthan

Eastern Extent- East of Bilaspur

Southern Extent- Somewhere around Hanamkonda,AP

Western Extent - West of Jalgaon

3] Volume Velocity processing

A very important component of the Radar product.

This plot shows the wind direction and magnitude upto 8kms from the surface in vertical direction i.e Vertically above or Vertical Wind profiles

It has a maximum capacity to detect winds upto 30km!

4] Surface Rainfall Intensity-

This plot determine the Rainfall rate.

Note- The Max Z reflectivity shows how much precipitation can occur from the system while the Surface Intensity Rainfall shows how much rain is falling ( Also available for other forms of precipitation)

5] Precipitation Accumulation

It shows the accumulated precipitation in different region

Additional Helps-

To see Tornadic supercells and hook echos from Yazoo City,MS US in April 2010 when a tornado outbreak had happened.

See here

2] IMD Radar Frequently Asked Questions

here

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/radared/radarfaq/

For general Radar facts.

Strong Tornadoes likely in USA

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Severe Thunderstorms are expected to errupt in the warm sector with upper 70F Dewpoints in the Gulf States.

The Convection belt looks in an area extending from SE Texas,into Louisiana and prominently in Mississippi,Alabama

Thunderstorms are expected to build in the MLCAPE from 1000-upper 2000J/KG and strong lifting mechanism indicated by Lift Index upto -8 in Louisiana.

Enhanced Convection shall appear in Louisiana where CAPE values favor for Deep Layer Convection during the mid afternoon period with the breaking of CAP.

As the surface low progresses eastwards with the arrival of cold front in Mississippi and some 40kt LLJ in the presence of Nice Low level curvatures in Hodograph ( Rich Shears)

Tornado threat looks strong for Central to Eastern,NE Mississippi and Central Alabama.

Looking at the models, it seems that my tornado target lies Eastern Mississippi corridor AND EXTENDING IT INTO WESTERN ALABAMA DURING EVENING HOURS OR SO.

** STRONG TORNADOES AND LARGE HAILS ARE EXPECTED IN AL,MS

A New Dimension to Weather Forecasts for Central India

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

ONLINE RADAR PRODUCTS FROM DOPPLER RADAR NAGPUR

After a month from the Inauguration of DWR in Nagpur in Feb, The Indian Meteorological Dept finally issued the Doppler Radar products ONLINE from today

A display from 9 Radar Stations across the nation stretching from

Mumbai,Delhi,Agartala,Kolkata,Vishakhapatanam,Machlipatanam,Chennai,Hyderabad,Nagpur

The Radar products are available here

From today, Products for Mumbai and Nagpur were made online

For Nagpur,

During non activity period ( For Calm weather), The Radar products shall be updated on a 3hrly basis and during Thunderstorms and rains on half hourly basis.

Foll are the included products

1] Maximum Reflectivity ( Z)

2] Plan Position Indicator

3] Volume Velocity Processing

4] Plan Position Indicator

5] Surface Rainfall Intensity

6] Precipitation Accumulation

1] The Maximum Reflectivity product determines the strength of reflection from the clouds

This is an indicator for strength of Thunderstorms .

This also shall provide datas from a vertical profile from the RADAR surface upto 15km.

How it helps?

The Maximum reflectivity is a classical product to determine the areas in thunderstorms which have potentials for producing Severe weather

It also determines the location where hails are forming and also about the precipitation outlooks

• magenta: 65 dBZ (extremely heavy precipitation, possible hail)
• red: 52 dBZ
• yellow: 36 dBZ
• green: 20 dBZ (light precipitation)

2] Plan Position Indicator is a large scale map showing a field view of radius 500km

At Nagpur as a center

North extent- Sagar,MP

SE of Kota,Rajasthan

Eastern Extent- East of Bilaspur

Southern Extent- Somewhere around Hanamkonda,AP

Western Extent - West of Jalgaon

3] Volume Velocity processing

A very important component of the Radar product.

This plot shows the wind direction and magnitude upto 8kms from the surface

It has a maximum capacity to detect winds upto 30km!

This helps to determine real time winds which helps to forecast cloud movements,winds etc.

The Surface Rainfall Intensity and Precipitation accumulation refers to amount of rainfall forecasted and recorded.

Thus, this NEW RADAR shall help a lot for forecasting ( Accurate) upto 500km from Nagpur.

Its a new dimension to Weather forecasts

Massive Thunderstorm hits Nagpur with heavy rains

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

As forecasted in the previous few posts, 

The incursion of moisture along with presence of strong lift and CAPE triggered convection multiple times

At morning around 0410 hrs light rains were reported ( Which were very very less) 

Then the weather continued to be cloudy with a thunderstorm at NW of Nagpur. It turned clear around 11PM. This basically provided the heat for the thunderstorms to fire

Intense Convection fired around 1200hrs in Nagpur while a system became matured at triggered rainfall with an outflow boundary extending till Nagpur in the evening. 

The outflow boundary caused cold winds from the NE to N side around 7-13km/hr. 

After the sunset,the thunderstorm headed to Nagpur and around 1930hrs, Heavy rains with a severe thunderstorm was reported. 

The thunderstorm was very severe that around 7-8 ELECTRIC BOLTS COVERING THE ENTIRE SKY WERE SPOTTED BY MYSELF WITH STRONG WINDS OF 22KM/HR

TEMPERATURE IN NAGPUR INSTANTLY DROPPED BY 9C IN AN HOUR

 IN BETWEEN 1910-2010 HRS FROM 32C TO 23C 

Rains were very heavy. DATA RECORDED BY METD WEATHER PROBE INDICATE AROUND 3mm RAINS TILL 2200HRS 

Personal Note- 

"This was on of the memorable setups I had seen in my life. There were four distinct setups throughout the day. 

Extreme Lightning Bolts covering the entire sky were seen which are similar to those graphically displayed on the METD WEATHER profile picture"

WITH NEARLY A  MONTH FROM THE INAUGURATION, RADAR PRODUCTS ARE STILL UNAVAILABLE ON INTERNET AT THE IMD WEBSITES. 

SUCH NON-SEASONAL SETUPS REQUIRE PRECISE MEASUREMENTS OF THE DOPPLER RADAR

- A.Deoras

-- 
Akshay Deoras

Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.

Web-

www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com

www.metdweather.blogspot.com

Via-Email Blog

Light Rains reported in Nagpur. chance of Thunderstorm persists

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

As mentioned in the previous post, the incursion of moisture already lead to precipitation ( Light to Very light rainfall ) in Nagpur today morning at around 0410hrs.

The SKEWT plot for the morning indicating the Precipitable Water around 0.84inch meaning low moisture content

K index or KI index which determines the Convective Potential is around Moderate level

and the TOTAL TOTALS plot indicates likely thunderstorm

The Equivalent Potential Temp ( Theta E) is around 316J which is sufficient to fuel thunderstorms.

Considering all the parameters-

THERE IS UPGRADATION

Upgrade to 15% chance

There is a 15% chance of Rain and Thunderstorm ( On max 30%) i.e 50% out of 100% around Nagpur throughout the day

10% chance of T.Storm in Nagpur

The Lifted Condensation Level ( Is around 10,000 ft which is the base of clouds)
Moisture also is favorable with lifting mechanism.

Rainfall shall be isolated followed by a Thunderstorm.

Thunderstorm expected in Nagpur on Thursday

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Concerning-Probability of Thunderstorm in city

With the presence of west winds at the mid level of atmosphere ( Around 18000ft from sea level ) aka 500mb region, some moisture incursion shall happen from the Arabian Sea on Thursday.

With the arrival of moisture at around 500-600mb, there will be cloud cover since afternoon as there is enough moisture aloft.

Cloud cover shall be light from afternoon hours of Wednesday

Due to a lifting mechanism ( Lift Index upto -4) the parcel of air shall be lifted adiabatically reaching a saturation level at the LCL.

LCL on Thursday is expected to be around 730mb ( Around 9000ft from ground)

This shall be the base of the cloud.

The instability shall be marginal and capable of triggering thunderstorm with day time heating.

This shall be Thursday night scenario with a thunderstorm and scanty rain

Q & A: Gulf Stream / Thermohaline Circulation, Polar Shift, Solar Activity - Warnings 2011-2012

Announcing 2011 Summer Forecast for India

The 2011 Summer Forecast for India with the latest ENSO conditions and analysis of it shall be put on the blog on Sunday,20th March 2011

-Akshay Deoras

40C in Nagpur!

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

With just 24 hrs from the onset of Westerlies at lower to mid levels across most of the India, Temperature in Nagpur soared up to 40C as predicted by METD WEATHER.

The Maximum temperature was recorded at around 0410PM with the Relative humidity of 19% ONLY.

The eastward propogation of the west winds in Central India led to Uniform distribution temperatures in Cent India and Western India leading to a relax in Max temp in Mumbai from apx 41C to 36C today.

Ahmedabad continued to remain hot and witnessed maximum temperature of 41C

Temperature of 34C was reported in New Delhi.

The winds shall continue bringing dry air from the west and lead to the rise of temperatures across the nation!

MONITOR THE HEAT WAVE BY CLICKING HERE AND SEEING TEMP OF 25 PLACES IN INDIA

Where will Nuclear radiations from Fukushima plant go?

Courtesy-BBC

SINCE THE RADIATION IS AT THE LOW LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE, WE CONSIDER ALL PARAMETERS OF LOW LEVEL WINDS OF ATMOSPHERE BELOW

PARTICLES SHALL NOT CIRCULATE GLOBALLY LIKE THAT OF VOLCANIC ASH DUE TO ATTAINING THE HEIGHT OF JET STREAM

The ongoing release of radiation from the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant has affected a wide area including almost entire Japan with a 20km radius evacuation zone around the Fukushima plant

and 30km radius no flying zone and advisory of remaining indoor!

The radiation level inside the Fukushima plant reached 0.4 Sievert on Tuesday.

Symptom benchmarks

( Courtesy- Wikipedia)

Symptoms of acute radiation (within one day):

• 0 – 0.25 Sv (0 - 250 mSv): None
• 0.25 – 1 Sv (250 - 1000 mSv): Some people feel nausea and loss of appetite; bone marrow, lymph nodes, spleen damaged.
• 1 – 3 Sv (1000 - 3000 mSv): Mild to severe nausea, loss of appetite, infection; more severe bone marrow, lymph node, spleen damage; recovery probable, not assured.
• 3 – 6 Sv (3000 - 6000 mSv): Severe nausea, loss of appetite; hemorrhaging, infection, diarrhea, skin peels, sterility; death if untreated.
• 6 – 10 Sv (6000 - 10000 mSv): Above symptoms plus central nervous system impairment; death expected.
• Above 10 Sv (10000 mSv): Incapacitation and death.

Thus a level of 0.40 is very minor as compared to other high values.

Winds around the Fukushima plant-

With the development of a strong tropical low NE of mainland of Japan, surface and adjacent surface winds have picked up right now in the nation especially the eastern coasts.

Japan is right now recording winds upto 30km/hr from NORTH direction with the temperature ( At time of Post) around 3C

Whereas in Fukushima,the winds are upto 17km/hr from NW with negative temp of -4C.

With the NE propogation of the low, surface winds in the Fukushima peaked at 1100hrs ( LT) of 37km/hr FROM WEST reaching to max gust of 57km/hr. The air pressure was around 995mb which indicate the vicinity of the low pressure.

As depicted by the weather map by Japan Meteorological Agency, the low is a 970mb system!

Due to this low pressure,THE SURFACE WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM NORTH,NORTH-WEST AT FUKUSHIMA AREA.

ALL TIME MENTIONED BELOW ARE UTC

** READERS FROM JAPAN SHALL ADD 9 HOURS TO THE FORECAST TIMES

WINDS SHALL BE AROUND 25KT ON ( THURSDAY)

WITH THE OVERALL SETUP PERMISSIBLE FOR NORTH,NORTH-WESTERLY WINDS TILL EARLY FRIDAY,

WINDS SHALL REGULATE FROM NORTH AS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA ( 1027MB) REACHES SW OF JAPAN

THE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH JAPAN ON FRIDAY EVENING PERIOD MAKING THE WINDS FROM NORTH AND TURNING FROM EAST TO FOR SHORT PERIOD ON FRIDAY.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS EAST, WINDS SHALL AGAIN BE FROM NORTH,NORTH-WEST

CONCLUSION-

IF THE RADIATION CONTINUES TO SPREAD AROUND FUKUSHIMA FOR THE COMING DAYS WHERE ALREADY RADIATIONS HAVE BEEN RELEASED IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE,THE SURFACE AND LOW WINDS SHALL BE PUSHING THE MATTER INTO THE PACIFIC THUS SHALL NOT AFFECT THE MAIN LAND OF JAPAN

** - A SLIGHT SHIFT OF THE WINDS ON FRIDAY IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSIT.

IT SHALL PARTLY SEND SOME MATTER TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EASTERN COAST OF JAPAN****

**** - UNCERTAINTY EXISTS

** PARTS OF ASIA SHALL NOT BE AFFECTED DUE TO THE RADIATION.

** NO THREAT TO USA.

Q & A: Gulf Stream & Jet Stream, Pole Shift / Magnetic Reversal, Supermoon, Sunspot Activity

Duplicate from exactaweather.com (Published: 13th March 2011)

Q & A: Gulf Stream & Jet Stream, Pole Shift / Magnetic Reversal, Supermoon, Sunspot Activity

I have had a stream of similar questions in regards to

1). The gulf stream and jet stream being connected

2). Polar shift / Magnetic reversal

3). Supermoon

4). Rise in sunspot activity

The gulf stream and jet stream being connected

In Layman's terms, the position and strength of the jet streams help meteorologists to predict future weather. There is no real scientific evidence of a direct relationship between the gulf stream and jet stream. It is however plausible that the two could be indirectly connected in relation to the current polar shift, as they have both been behaving in a similar fashion in recent years.

Climate factors such as La Niña can also hugely influence the jet stream. In terms of the UK and Europe, the general trend is more precipitation due to a stronger jet stream in the North Atlantic. Recent NOAA predictions give a 50% chance that the La Niña will be all but gone by June 2011. I personally feel that this prediction is wrong and once again way underestimated, hence my future flood warnings. The gulf stream / thermohaline circulation have still offered no improvements, of which we will now begin to see the lag effect start to take place.

Polar shift / Magnetic reversal

Once again, there is no real scientific data to support a direct relationship between severe weather events and major natural disasters, in regards to a polar shift / magnetic reversal. However, in terms of how I personally interpret the scientific data available, it would be adequate to suggest that an accelerating polar shift is well underway. I personally feel that this will pose a huge threat in terms of further severe global weather events and huge natural disasters within the next 22 months, in relation to increased seismic and volcanic activity that others will hugely underestimate.

I have no doubt whatsoever that the polar shift and solar activity is related to the increase in seismic and volcanic activity, which is furthermore resulting in large earthquakes and devastating tsunamis, as we have just recently witnessed in Japan. Not only have we seen four of the largest earthquakes since 1900 in the last seven years, they also all ranked inside the ten largest. Two of which Chile (8.8) and Japan (8.9) occurred in the last 12 months.

Supermoon

As I have previously stated, I personally feel that the increase in Earth's seismic and volcanic activity must be directly linked with solar activity and polar shift. We are about to enter a phase over the coming weeks, that will see the moon at the closest distance from Earth, also known as supermoon. Once again, there is no real scientific data to support a direct relationship between severe weather events and major natural disasters in regards to a supermoon.

However, in terms of how I personally interpret this, it would be impossible to rule out a string of further natural disasters, volcanic eruptions, and major earthquakes over the coming weeks. Especially in regards to what we are currently seeing in Japan at present. In terms of global weather, it may also have the potential to cause abnormal storms around the world.

Rise in sunspot activity

The sun has recently seen a significant rise in sunspot activity. However, this does not justify titled articles I have seen such as "the sun has awoken". Observations over the coming months will be very interesting, especially as NASA scientist David Morrison has even stated that they are expecting a weak solar maximum in the video here. As I have stated before this will have future repercussions on further periods of low solar activity, and changes nothing in regards to my current forecasts and how I calculate solar activity into them.

It will also be interesting to see the future modeling of sunspot numbers, and whether this will make any difference to the solar flux / geomagnetic index.


And finally, I have a very interesting article titled "sir paul nurse abandons scientific priniciples on becoming president of royal society", by Mike Hersee the co-founder of Heal London. It also goes on to mention myself and Exacta Weather, and Piers Corbyn from Weather Action.

"It’s now been proven that on 25th October the Met office in the UK, led by AGW champion Robert Napier, confirmed a weather prediction for winter 2010/2011 that was hopelessly inaccurate in the extreme, and no significant correction was subsequently forthcoming. Long-range weather forecasters WeatherAction.com rely predominantly on solar and lunar factors as drivers of climatic conditions and On 1st December Piers Corbyn posted a video on youtube claiming that the period December to February would be “exceptionally cold and snowy, like hell frozen over at times, with much of England, Germany, Benelux and Northern France suffering one of the coldest winters for over 100 years, with two of the months December, January or February likely to be in the three coldest for 100 years”. Furthermore he said, “During this time, standard meteorology will consistently underestimate the lengths of these cold periods and will also grossly underestimate the severity of blizzards and snow deluges at times”. But even earlier than Weather Action, James Madden of Exacta Weather, AKA ukweathergeek, using similar models as Weather Action, posted a youtube video on 18th September – over a month earlier than the Met office who was confirming ‘no clear signals’ about the weather for the UK winter – explaining in detail why he expected the 2010/2011 winter to be more severe than 2009/2010, and why 2011/2012 was expected to be worse still".

It makes for a very interesting read and the actual programme itself is also very interesting. Special thanks to Mike Hersee.

Please consider a donation to the Japan Tsunami Appeal HERE


James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

Published: 13th March 2011 (17:12) GMT

Content copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

Severe heat to approach India in the coming period!

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

With a part feel of summer in early March due to a redirection of the mid- low level winds from West, temperatures relaxed ( max) into the 30s range across most of India and (min) in the lower 20s.

The winds regulated from North-South due to formation of low pressure in the bay of bengal travelling west towards Sri Lanka.

The low pressure was expected to travel in a relatively less time but due to the slow movement in the water, the low is now expected to hit the Sri lanka eastern coast on Friday-Saturday

Due to the collaboration of High-Low pressure systems, the winds at 850mb are nearly Northerly. This continues the cooling at evening period-night-early morning across Indian plains especially in the Central India part where max effect is being seen

Min temp was around 18C in Nagpur ( Early morning on 14th March) while was around 16C in Pune and around 15C in Bhopal

Maximum is still above 35C but not near to 40C yet.

Forecast-

With the more westerly travel of the low crossing Sri Lanka, effect of the low shall disappear

Winds at low and mid level across Central and Southern India shall become easterly and then Westerly by next week ( Monday).

This shall permit a sudden rise of Max temp across Central India,Western India,Southern India and bring temperatures in Northern India ( Max) upto 35C ( In northern plains)

With a Western Disturbance approaching and likely striking North India by Saturday ( 20th Mar) some rainfall,cloudy sky will pull down maximum temperature in hilly areas ( Srinagar also where its 20C now)

Also areas of Punjab,Haryana etc. shall see some cooling from this weekend ( For limited period apx 24-48hrs only)

After that Mercury shall rise!

Nagpur temperature forecast- MAX AND MIN

DATE MAX MIN

14/03 38C 20C

15/03 38C 21C

16/03 39C 22C

17/03 39C 24C

18/03 *40C 25C

19/03 40C 25C

North-Northwesterly Winds in India to cool Central India!

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The multi directional flow of the low to mid level winds in India shall be regulated as a Monodirectional or Uni-directional flow in the coming period due to the development of a broad cyclonic low pressure in the Southern Bay of Bengal.

GFS models indicate that the low pressure shall intensity to a marked low pressure or a broad low pressure having intense convection and minor banding features which shall trigger heavy rains in Sri Lanka by coming Sunday(13th March)

As the winds always blow from High Pressure TOWARDS low pressure area, North to North Westerly shall set up due to permanent high in North India and this low.

The winds shall become more symmetrically oriented as the low aims Sri-Lanka

What effect expected in India?

In the last week, for Central India,Western India the winds were from the West which led to severe rise in temperatures at Max and Min at many places with Nagpur at 37C.

Now as the wind direction change, winds will be from North. AT evening and night period when the air cools off due to absence of heating from sun, such winds are capable of reducing the temperatures and giving a breezy pleasant outlook.

Similar feature is expected to happen WHICH CAUSED MIN AT PUNE AND NASHIK 11C AND JALGAON AT 12C

(Temp courtesy-Rajesh Kapadia)

Min temp in Cent India shall be in 20-25C range with Max temp to be steady or 1C rise.

This temp drop(Min) shall continue till Mon (14th Feb) and shall minimize when low disappears.

Space Shuttle Discovery is "GO" for landing

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

NASA AND METD WEATHER has given a GO for landing of Space Shuttle Discovery

The De-orbit BURN has been given a GREEN SIGNAL as the Winds are within the limits for landing

Windy at Kennedy Space Center,FL

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

STS 133 ground weather forecast

0955AM EST Weather report from Kennedy Space Center,FL

Temp - 25C

Humidity is 65%

Wind - 28km/hr from SSE

Gust- 46km/hr (over 24kt)

Visibility- 16.1km

The Winds are reaching the permissible limit which stands for Max of 25kt as Tailwind and Headwind

Decision from METD WEATHER for Go/NO for launch remains ON HOLD.

Tornadoes to AIM Southern States of USA. SPC UPGRADES TO MODERATE RISK

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

There is a Moderate Risk of Severe Storms across Louisiana,SW Mississippi.

Massive upper trough having discrete jet streaks amplifying into Texas-Oklahoma shall bring some severe weather down south.

Severe weather shall erupt into a wide area stretching from Eastern,SE Oklahoma into Central and East Central Texas in afternoon period. Intense convection is likely into SE and Central TX due to presence of CAPE reaching upto 2000J/Kg in the area of 60F dewpoint East of the Dryline.

Threat for Afternoon tornado is less but threat increases later period with the progression of dryline westward and presence of Low Level Jets. ( Evening to night hours)

The primary threat looks for Western Louisiana border around Marshall,TX

Evening storms shall be capable for producing isolated thunderstorms with hails which shall modify amidst 1000J/KG CAPE and Light to Moderate SHEARS for tornadoes.

Main threat lies across Louisiana and SW Mississippi into overnight.

Moderate Risk upgrade

Developing storms will progress into LA,Mississippi into evening to night hours with the progress of warm front, supercell formations shall enhance and produce some tornadoes. There is a CAP though in this region.

Heavy Rains also expected due to HP supercells.

Widespread wind damage also possible

My tornado target lies close to Marshall,TX for late afternoon period.

Nocturnal long time tornadoes possible in LA,Mississippi

Permissible weather at Kennedy Space Center for Landing of Space Shuttle Discovery

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

As mentioned in the previous post, weather at kennedy space center was expected to be around 80-85% permissible with primary concern of cloud ceiling height

Guidance from latest model runs of GFS and NAM agree that the Lifted Condensation Level ( LCL) which determines the height of base of clouds shall remain within the limit

Cloud Cover shall be around 40% during/before launch with light clouds expected.

Since the rule permits light cloud cover less than 50%, the parameter is been given a GREEN SIGNAL

Winds shall be light in intensity and permissible in all ranges and forms.

No Precipitation/lightning is expected on deorbit 202 at 1157 hrsEST,1657 hrsUTC,2227hrs IST

METD WEATHER GIVES a Green Signal or "GO" for Landing of Space Shuttle Discovery on Wednesday,9th March 2011 at Shuttle Landing Facility,KSC

STS 133 landing forecast for Kennedy Space Center,FL

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

STS 133 Ground Weather Forecast-

Forecast for Wednesday,9th March 2011- TARGETED LANDING DAY FOR SPACE SHUTTLE DISCOVERY

Space Shuttle Discovery is expected to land at the Kennedy Space Center's Shuttle Landing Facility on 9th March, Wed at 1158EST (16:58 UTC) 2228hrs IST on the orbit 202.

Below are the conditions acceptable for landing of a shuttle as prescribed by the Space Flight Meteorology group

Space Shuttle Landing Weather Criteria
Simplified Daylight End-of-Mission (EOM) Landing at the Kennedy Space Center

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Weather Parameter and Their Limits

Cloud ceiling height	>= 8,000 ft
Visibility	>= 5 statute miles
Crosswind	<= 15 knots
Headwind	<= 25 knots
Tailwind	<= 15 knots (peak) <= 10 knots (2 minute average)
Precipitation and thunderstorms	Not allowed within 30 nautical miles of the landing runway.
Turbulence	<= Moderate

Additional Requirements

1.  No detached non-transparent thunderstorm anvil clouds (less than 3 hours old) 

within 20 nautical miles of the       landing runway.  2.  Peak winds may not exceed the

 average wind speed by more than 10 knots.  

Forecast by METD WEATHER of 9th Mar 2011 for Kennedy Space Center,FL

On Wednesday, 9th March 2011 weather is expected to be CALM around the Kennedy Space Center,FL with a high pressure area in SW of Florida

Technical aspects-

Cloud Ceiling Height-

Cloud Ceiling height has been a primary concern for the landing day Wednesday.

The previous few model RUNS of GFS and NAM were showing low height of Lifted Condensation Level ( LCL) indicating that cloud bases ( ceiling) to be less than 8,000ft which is the prescribed limit by Space Flight Meteorology Group

However, recent model analysis have shown that cloud ceiling shall be unlimited to high level with 30% cloud cover on Wednesday. Cloud Cover of 50% is not permissible with nature of clouds to be Convective.

Thus cloud cover on Wednesday shall be less with very high cloud ceiling

This parameter is "ON HOLD" AS PER METD WEATHER SINCE MORE CONVINCING PRODUCTS ARE REQUIRED TO ACCEPT THE FACT.

2] Winds-

Permissible tail wind has to be less than 15kt.

Tail wind during landing time is expected to be around 7kt

This parameter is "GO" as the cross wind is also light with head wind.

3] Precipitation and Thunderstorms not allowed within 30nm of runway

No Thunderstorm/Precipitation is expected on 9th March morning period around KSC so this parameter is "GO"

4] Weak turbulence.Parameter is "GO"

Thus the weather forecast stands for "GO" with primary concern of Cloud Ceiling thus making 80% Acceptable conditions.

Weather forecast is GO for Edward AFB and White sands for Wed

Weather Forecast is NO GO for KSC on Thu ( 10th March 2011) due to possible thunderstorms and lightning.

Next report-

0500hrs GMT,8th March 2011

Heavy Snowfall expected in North India 2-5th March 2011

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

A Western Disturbance shall be effective over North India from tomorrow giving Heavy Rain and Snow in North India,Himachal Pradesh till 6th Mar 2011.

Likely Avalanche warning and closure of transport
--
Akshay Deoras

Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.

Web-

www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com

www.metdweather.blogspot.com