MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0045
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...NRN LA...SRN/ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 222026Z - 222230Z
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE BY EARLY EVENING NEAR THE
ARKLATEX THEN RACE NEWD TOWARD WRN TN/NWRN MS AFTER DARK. DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED. A TORNADO WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 00Z.
LEADING EDGE OF WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH IS ADVANCING ACROSS ERN
OK/NERN TX AND WILL SOON OVERSPREAD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IN ADVANCE
OF THIS FEATURE...WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SPREAD INTO SRN/ERN
AR...AS NOTED BY SFC DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE UPPER 50S INTO
THE 60S...WHILE A STUBBORN WEDGE OF COOLER AIR HAS YET TO BE
DISPLACED OVER MUCH OF CNTRL/NWRN AR. CURRENT THINKING IS GREATEST
AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR TO THE S-E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEDGE FRONT AND THIS WILL BE THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
LATEST VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASING BAND OF LOW LEVEL CU ALONG
THE DRY LINE NEAR I-35 OVER NCNTRL TX. THIS IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND IS CERTAINLY INDICATIVE OF STRONGER
FORCING THAT WILL SOON OVERSPREAD THE ARKLATEX. WITH TIME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE ALONG THIS LINE...OR PERHAPS EVEN DEVELOP
WELL AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT WITHIN DEEPER CONFLUENT ZONE NEAR THE
LA BORDER AS EXHIBITED BY SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN FROM NEAR TYR
TO JUST WEST OF SHV. NEEDLESS TO SAY VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
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