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Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Tornado Watch: 5:00 PM CST - 5:00 AM CST 2/28 to 2/29

This was issued by The Weather Centre and not affiliated with the government.
The Weather Centre
Tornado Watch
4:10 PM CST - February 28, 2012

The Weather Centre has issued a tornado watch for east Oklahoma, west Arkansas and extreme southwest Missouri.

I have decided to go ahead and issue a tornado watch due to forecast high EHI levels and concerning hodographs shown on forecast soundings from the latest 18z NAM.
It looks like storms will start out in central Oklahoma and move eastward and intensify. As the storms move into the area now under a watch, I anticipate atmospheric spinning to take effect as the high EHI levels are present in the area. Instability is not particularly high, and for that reason I have not issued a Dangerous Tornado Watch. This would be a different story if we were in spring.
I did extend the tornado watch into extreme southwest Missouri, as any storms that fire ahead of the cold front may also hit Missouri. With the high EHI values, I feel that this move was necessary.

With this watch I am expecting...
•An isolated tornado (weak-moderate)
•Large Hail
•Damaging Winds Likely

Shearing will make for also another aid for possible rotation in the atmosphere, but the lack of any major instability I feel that this won't be a terribly huge player in how the tornado situation plays out.


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