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Sunday, March 18, 2012

Special TRIAD Run Downgrades Tornado Threat

The TRIAD Tornado Model has downgraded the tornado threat today to a red maximum, which means the TRIAD is expecting a few isolated tornadoes, with the potential for a strong tornado.
I realize that this is not the most ideal set-up for tornadoes, but I am surprised the Storm Prediction Center did not issue a moderate risk to be on the safe side. I have been watching shearing, wind convergence, helicity, instability throughout this event and have firmly believed that this would warrant a moderate risk area by the SPC. There remains the potential for them to issue a short-term moderate risk area in the next update today, but I can't say that is too likely at this time.

Some info on this special TRIAD model run:
Model(s) used: SPC SREF Ensembles.
Time run: 9:30 am central.
Confidence: 90%
Potential of upgrading to higher tornado threat: 40%
Potential of downgrading to lower tornado threat: 20%


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