Since this is a specialized run, the regular 4:00 PM central TRIAD model run will go on as planned.
Reason: The SPC SREF index I used to determine the TRIAD output shows wind barbs, and it looks like these winds will be converging into a line that is likely the dry line that will start out these storms. The question is if these storms will start out as individual, discrete storm cells or a linear storm system (squall line). These converging winds will continue to be the base for the tornado threat as per the SPC SREF. This 9z SPC SREF run has dramatically increased the tornado threat for this event.
The reason confidence is so low is because this is a single model and not the regular blend I would prefer to use.