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Friday, March 9, 2012

Strong Storms Possible in Arkansas Late Sunday

Member 'A' of the WRF members at the University of Illinois' WRF suite is projecting Arkansas, Missouri and Illinois to get into some pretty strong thunderstorms in the late hours of Sunday.

Shown here is the maximum projected radar reflectivity, forecasting dbz (radar values) of over 45, which is usually more than sufficient for thunderstorms. The strongest storms occur in 60-70 dbz radar values, which are not nearly as common as 45 dbz.

What does concern me is the bowing motion of this line. Down at the tip of the line is a bowing segment which to me looks like it could formulate into a high-wind event scenario. The same member 'A' is depicting surface winds of up to 25 knots, which equates to a good 29 MPH.

In Southeast Missouri is also somewhat interesting, with more separated cell segments. In spring, this would be much more worrisome, as these separate cells may even come to fruition to discrete super cells. Luckily, we have not gotten into the full bloom of spring just yet.


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