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Saturday, March 31, 2012

Severe Weather Targets the Mississippi Valley Today

There is a risk of severe weather this afternoon for states around the Mississippi Valley. This comes as a frontal boundary sags southward and a dry line is located out west.

This is a sounding valid for 18z tonight, known as 7 pm Central time. When you get the dashed line to the right of the soldi blue line, that is when you develop instability. As you can see, there is a large gap between the solid line and dashed line, indicating a lot of instability. CAPE shown on the sounding indicates over 3000 j/kg of instability present at that time.
Another thing seen on the sounding is something called 'ConvT', which appears to indicate the temperature when air will rise to produce thunderstorms. To figure out the surface temperature, I use 28 degrees Celsius, as the solid temperature line is in that 25-30 Celsius area closest to the bottom of the image. Converting 28 Celsius to Fahrenheit results in a temperature of 82.4 degrees F, a good 2 degrees above the ConvT of 80.4 F.
A couple final indices: The Hail index shows hail of 1.5 inches is possible. The hail index is the first parameter in the 4th column labeled 'Hail'. The Supercell Potential parameter, 3rd result in the 2nd column, indicates a 60% chance of a supercell if convection were to develop (which it will).

I don't blame you at all if you don't understand this- I just started getting the gist of it recently after a lot of researching and learning, so my apologies if I am confusing you.
In short, thunderstorms, with a fair chance of becoming supercells, are possible today.

-Andrew

Friday, March 30, 2012

2012-2013 Preliminary Winter Forecast

Hello everyone and here is the long-awaited 2012-2013 Preliminary Winter Forecast.
I have to say, I don't have too much information to share as a lot of pieces are too far out, so this is more of an examination of the ENSO conditions.

This past winter we were in a fake La Nina. It had a La Nina, but with El Nino weather conditions resulting. This summer, we are expected to have a neutral ENSO condition, and by this winter we may even have a slight El Nino. Here's a forecast for DJF (December, January, February) 2012-2013 off the Scripps ENSO Model.

The Scripps Model is forecasting a east-Based El Nino. There is indeed a difference between west based and east based. However, we won't dig into that because it is too far out to tell at this point.
Here's the average precipitation and temperature (respectively) results from weak El Ninos.


A weak El Nino typically brings slightly below average temperatures to the country, while bringing more precipitation to the East Coast and below normal rainfall for the Southeast.

Because it is so far out and I don't have too much to work with, here is what I will say:
•Weak El Nino likely
•Probably more precipitation for the East Coast

-Andrew

Severe Weather Risk for Today, March 30

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined two severe weather risk areas today- one in the Ohio Valley and the other in the South Plains.

The Ohio Valley severe weather risk will be the result of a convective system currently moving east across Illinois. As the system gets into the Ohio Valley, instability of up to 2000 j/kg will be available, making for a situation that could sustain some mainly hail-producing severe storms.

The South Plains severe weather risk is positioned in a way that tells me it may be a linear formation. A system will eject eastward and bump against a dry line in central Texas. This will initiate some strong severe storms that will have a mainly hail-producing risk.

Keep up to date with the latest weather developments on The Weather Centre's Facebook Page.

-Andrew

Thursday, March 29, 2012

Turning cooler this weekend

Turning cooler

As we head into this weekend, it will feel much colder than of late across most parts of the UK. Friday will see more in the way of cloudiness across the UK, especially in some coastal parts of Scotland and northern England. It will also feel much fresher than of late in these parts, with the occasional very light rain shower possible too. Elsewhere, will remain dry throughout Friday, and although it will be noticeably cloudier than of late, the afternoon could see some good sunny spells breaking through in places.

Saturday will also see much more in the way of cloudiness across most parts of the UK. It will also remain relatively dry across most parts of the country once again, and although there could be the occasional light rain shower in some places; these really won't amount to much at all. Saturday evening will then become increasingly chilly across many parts, with a widespread frost likely to develop under clearer conditions.

Sunday will therefore begin chilly across many parts for the time of the year. It will also remain dry across most parts of the country once again during Sunday, but with more in the way of sunshine on offer, especially across more southern parts of the UK. However, there is also the potential for some wetter and windier weather across parts of the far north, as we progress throughout Sunday and into Monday.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

Content copyright © 2010-2012. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

Storm Prediction Center Outlines Long Range Severe Weather Risk

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a risk of severe weather for 4 days out in the Southern Plains. I say 4 days out, because 'Day 1' is today, 'Day 2' is tomorrow, etc.

The perpetrator for this severe weather will involve a dry line. This dry line will be stationed in central Texas. As the warm air is drawn north by the storm system located in Wisconsin, the dry line will quickly accumulate a dew point gradient. When the cold front out to the west intercepts this gradient, showers and thunderstorms should be quick to form in Arkansas, Louisiana, and probably some more discrete, severe storm cells out ahead of the system.
As the storm system moves east, wind shearing will increase to a good 60 knots, easily sustainable for tornadoes. This shearing will be accompanied by at least 1000 j/kg of instability. The combination will probably make for some discrete super cells in due time.
There does look to be a fairly weak cap over the area, about 100 -j/kg. This should be easily broken by the storm system.
As the system makes its way eastward, it will try to attain a negative tilt. However, based on the latest GFS, that is possible, not confident. The GFS has the storm take on a neutral/slight negative tilt when it is in the area being monitored for severe weather.

-Andrew

2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Hello everyone, I'm here to present to you the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast.

Let's get right to it and look at something called the TNA. The Tropical North Atlantic index, or TNA, is based on looking at sea surface temperatures (SST). In areas of above normal SST's, the TNA will be positive. In areas of below normal SST's, the TNA will correspond negatively.

Past TNA
Here's the total past TNA recorded values. As you can see, the majority of 1981-1997 was in a general cooler phase, while 1998-current has been a mainly warmer phase. This does raise questions on if global warming has played a role in this, but that is not nearly what this forecast is on.
Notice how strongly positive the TNA was from 2009 to about 2011. Here's a brief analysis concerning those hurricane seasons.

•2009- Below Average, El Nino.
•2010- Above Average, Neutral/La Nina
•2011- Above Average, La Nina

The reason this is significant is because El Ninos tend to reduce hurricane activity in the region, while La Ninas can strengthen Atlantic tropical activity. The TNA and La Nina combined in 2010 to produce the 3rd most active hurricane season on record.

This attention to the ENSO (La Nina/El Nino) conditions brings us to the question of which condition will we have this hurricane season.
At the moment, we are in a neutral ENSO state, pretty much meaning the 'silver lining' between an El Nino or La Nina. This, to me, means that the effects of the ENSO will not be a real factor, because another way neutral ENSO can be interpreted as is a very weak La Nina/El Nino, although this view point can lead to more issues than solutions with understanding.

Here's the latest SST anomalies for the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. While the Caribbean is not too impressive, check out how warm the Gulf of Mexico is! Many areas are over 2 degrees above normal. While that may not seem like a lot, it may have some potentially catastrophic effects on any tropical activity that forms in the Gulf. If a cyclone does form, it will have all of that warm water to use to strengthen.

All of that said, here's my forecast.

I am expecting an above normal hurricane season with a strong positive TNA combined with very weak, if nonexistent ENSO effects. A very warm Gulf also adds to the forecast. I put the chance for a landfalling US hurricane at 65%, because we are overdue (which honestly adds nothing to where hurricanes go), but mainly due to the very warm Gulf of Mexico.

-Andrew

Winter's Final Gasp of Snow to Fall in the Northeast

0z GFS Snowfall Forecast
Winter's potentially final snowfall will fall in the Northeast tomorrow, with a general 1-4 inches of snow expected across the region.
This snow will fall as a storm system makes its way eastward across the US and manages to pass across some moisture that meets up with some cold air to make snowfall for the Northeast. Again, nothing major, just a few inches to satisfy those in the Northeast that got very little snow over the course of this past 'winter'.

-Andrew

Remember-

Remember that the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast will be issued today at 12:00 PM CDT,
and the 2012-2013 Preliminary Winter Forecast will be issued tomorrow at 12:00 PM CDT.

I sincerely apologize for the delay instead of not posting it yesterday, when it was scheduled. It was not my intention to have it be delayed.

-Andrew

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Glance at the Lezak Recurring Cycle

A system I like to use is the Lezak Recurring Cycle, or LRC. Basically, it indicates a cycle starts in early winter that will cycle over and over again between a 45-60 day period. It can range from a very wet pattern to multiple drought-like weather scenes in the cycle. The cycle is different every year, and the time it takes to make a full cycle varies, but typically falls between 45-60 days.

The LRC was present in the winter when the warm temperatures kept cycling over and over again through the winter months. Now, with records broken in the last couple weeks, it has definitely been proven to be part of the LRC.



Now, if we follow the LRC through the rest of spring, here is what I believe we will come up with:
•A continuation of very warm, if not record breaking, temperatures.
•Many more opportunities for severe weather, mainly focused in the Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley.
•Speed Bumps of cooler air, soon filtered back into warmer spells.

Now, the reason I am concerned for more severe weather opportunities is because the deep, negative tilted storm systems that recently tore up the Plains are embedded in the LRC, meaning that, in due time, they will come back again- possibly with some more vengeance as spring gets fully underway.

Another interesting piece- Gary Lezak, who created the LRC, recently wrote a comparison to January 17 and March 2 in terms of the tornado events.
Using those two dates on a 45-50 day cycle, it would be reasonable to think that the next potentially major outbreak would fall on a Mid April timeframe.

Here's a link to the Accuweather Forums' own LRC thread, containing a lot of the information I use to learn about the LRC.

-Andrew

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

**UPDATED** Spring-Summer Tornado Forecast 2012

Hello everyone, I'm here to present to you the Updated Spring-Summer Tornado forecast.
Already this year, there have been deaths and horrible occurrences of very strong tornadoes. In a very similar situation where fall can determine winter, I believe late winter can determine spring. If this is true, we are in for a very rough ride.

The chart above shows average tornado reports through the first half of the year. Also superimposed are the long range trend for tornadoes as well as 2012's tornado reports. As you can see, the tornado season of 2012 is already way above the average trend, and it's not even April!

I believe that warm weather will continue to flourish this spring and summer and make for above average temperatures. This tells me that a ridge will be in place over the East US. If that happens, storm systems may sweep south through the Southwest and eject into Texas and make for some severe weather. I also see the potential for storm systems to eject into the North Plains and hit the Plains and Midwest with some severe weather when warm air is not overwhelming the country.

Here's my outlook for the rest of the tornado season. I feel that an already warmer-than normal Gulf of Mexico along with a more active jet stream helped in part with the cool Upper Level Lows that will charge through the Southwest and into the Plains will greatly contribute to a sizable tornado threat, mainly centered in the Southern Plains and into parts of the Ohio Valley and southern Midwest.

-Andrew

Severe Weather Possible in Midwest Today

Overview of Severe Weather Threat

Hail Outlook

Tornado Outlook

Damaging Wind Outlook
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined parts of the Midwest for a slight risk of severe weather today.
The main threat today appears to be damaging wind and hail, but the tornado risk is somewhat elevated and may need to be watched.

This comes as a storm system moves eastward from the Plains and brings with it some warm and humid air. The extent and power of this air appears to be centered in Illinois, Missouri and Iowa.

Here's an image projecting the calibrated potential for a severe thunderstorm, valid around 6-7 pm CDT this evening. If we use this to determine the area of greatest risk, it is quite easy to see that the Illinois/Iowa border is at the greatest risk for severe weather today.

'Like' our Facebook Page for updates not seen here on the blog at http://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherCentre

-Andrew

Monday, March 26, 2012

2012 Summer Forecast

Hello everyone, this is the 2012 Summer Forecast from The Weather Centre.
The big topic this winter has been the La Nina that never was. It was present and shown in the oceans, but the effects on land were similar to that of an El Nino for some places. This phenomenon is commonly referred to as a La Nino.
Anyhow, you will be glad to know that the La Nina appears to finally be giving way, and the summer months of this year look to be in a neutral ENSO state. So, what does this mean?

Well, to be quite frank, in my opinion it means very little. While there is indeed a spectrum of the ENSO indices that includes a neutral region, keep in mind that a La Nina and El Nino are extremes on that spectrum and neutral territory can be classified as a very weak La Nina or El Nino. Because of how weak it is, other indices like the NAO, MJO etc. can override that neutral ENSO phase.

Here's a forecast for the summer months (June, July, August (JJA)) from the ECCA long range ensembles.

Precipitation Forecast

Temperature Forecast
Areas of darker shades indicate 'skill areas', where the ensembles are more confident in that forecast for that area.
The ECCA is projecting a mainly warm summer, with only parts of the West Coast and south Florida getting in on some cooler weather. I feel that this forecast will probably verify. A La Nina typically brings about cool temperatures. With that La Nina fading away, temperatures would be expected to remain normal. However, counting in the extreme warmth we have been seeing across the country in recent weeks, I could see this being a sign that summer will also be warmer than normal.
More abundant precipitation is confined to the Plains and Midwest than the rest of the country. I feel like this depends on the jet stream. If the country is to be warm, the jet stream would probably be zonal at some point, going along the US/Canada border. This would bring the storm systems across the border as well. However, at the same time, storm systems would hit the Southwest, eject into the South Plains, and produce high-precipitation events across the Plains and Midwest. This is a scenario that is certainly on the table.
Now, the forecasts I have made aren't exactly having the highest confidence and are biased off of the ECCA model. That said, here is my forecast for Summer 2012.

Precipitation Forecast

Temperature Forecast (Skill area in darker shades).
-Andrew

ENSO ( El Nino Southern Oscillation) update







METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

After the recent continuous updates on The Superstorm or Dust Storm in Asia, its time to update the people with something new. The aspect of ENSO or El Nino Southern Oscillation is an old phenomena but less known to the people. In this article, I shall not go much into depth on technical aspects of what ENSO means and other aspects like El Nino or La Nina. There are some articles already which can be accessed by the readers by searching on this page.


The above is a Unisys prepared image comprising of Sea Surface Temperature across oceans of the world. Majority of the people will face problems in reading this so I shall describe it.

You can identify the physical map's continents and countries. Also the oceanic region can be identified easily. Here you see combination of colors in the ocean ( light blue,dark blue,light green,dark green,yellow,purple). What are these???

Its simple, just see the image left portion. There is a scale. The scale represents Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) anomalies in degree celsius. Anomaly refers to the abnormal ( greater or less) than the normal SST present at this time.

The bluer shade beginning from dark blue indicates cooler than normal SST in decreasing process. The light blue,green colors indicate nearly normal or slightly normal anomalies ( 0.5C to 2C). Higher colors like Yellow or Red indicate above normal (around +5C) sea surface temperature.

What to look in such maps-
The main region to look for is the Pacific Ocean prominently the areas in Central Pacific Ocean around the equator. The below region shows the division of Equatorial Central Pacific in regions known as Nino with their corresponding numbers. These regions ultimately determine whether a La Nina or El Nino is going on..



And its simple now!

One can clearly see lots of blues in the eq central pacific ocean which indicates the ongoing La Nina. The recent update from Climate Prediction Center shows ( Latest Week)


Region    Temp anomaly

Niño 4       -0.4ºC 
Niño 3.4    -0.5ºC
Niño 3       -0.1ºC
Niño 1+2    0.5ºC


We just see the past datas or the SST during last week when 2012 Summer Forecast for India was released..

NINO 4:        -0.8C
NINO3.4:      -0.6C
NINO 3:        -0.2C
NINO 1+2:     0.4C


Having compared the week variation, one clearly implies that temperatures are rising in Pacific ( EXCEPT Nino 4 region) 





26th Feb and 25th March 2012 SST comparison-






On comparing the SST for Equatorial Pacific, its being observed that the overall volume of cooler SST has increased since Feb 2012! The volume of warmer SST around South America also has decreased!


The above image shall clarify! There has been cooling in the region of RED OVAL as compared to Feb 2012 SST.
Note- The above image is of Mar 2012

Areas in pink show less warm SST.

Forecast-
Looking at the overall 1-month analysis, it appears that ENSO is turning to Neutral Stage but in a slow manner. The overall transition is expected into late April ( CPC) but METD WEATHER suggests things to delay. It may appear that the ENSO neutral shall appear by May mid or end depending on the decay rate!

The Wind anomalies at lower and upper level of atmosphere still indicate the persisting La Nina!

STAY TUNED for UPDATES

Severe Weather Discussion for Tomorrow, March 27

Probability of Severe Weather

Probability of any severe weather events
A slight risk has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for tomorrow, March 27.

This risk of severe weather is probably going to verify, with a sturdy 1000 j/kg of instability combined with 50 knots of veering winds to make for some large hail in the stronger storm cells. I'm not looking at a huge severe weather event- probably along the lines of several isolated storm cells over a broad area with a few in the realm of severe weather.

As a warm front quickly followed by a cold front progresses east, this should be the instigator for any storm cells that may form. Imposing the frontal systems against instability and shearing makes me think that this event will be supported by the veering winds/shearing, which may not come through for all of the storm cells in question.

-Andrew

Severe Weather Discussion for Today, March 26

Overall Threat

Hail Risk

Tornado Threat

Damaging Wind Threat
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a risk for severe weather today, March 26, in the Northern Plains.

A negatively tilted storm system looks to eject into the North Plains today. As it does so, some thunderstorms are likely to develop in the midst of modest instability values around 1000 j/kg.  It looks like there will be ample hail opportunities with around 40 knots of veering wind from the surface to the mid levels of the atmosphere. This does indicate the likelihood of the stronger storms in this event to be hail producers.

Infrared imagery indicates a plume of clouds moving into the Northern Plains, where the storm system is expected to be. As this earlier cloud cover comes into the area, and with its proximity from the Gulf of Mexico, I find this severe threat to be rather low and it may be slightly over-calculated from my vantage point.

-Andrew


Sunday, March 25, 2012

April 2012 - UK Weather Forecast

April 2012 – UK Weather Forecast

As we head into the start of April, the weather is initially set to remain relatively dry across most parts of the UK. It will also remain very dry across southern and eastern parts of England throughout the whole month, where rainfall is needed the most in these already drought-stricken areas.

I stated on the 27th February in my 2012 spring forecast:

“March and into mid April are looking to offer some relatively dry weather at times in terms of rainfall amounts at present. This is likely to create the usual drought fears as we head into the summer as some reservoirs are already operating at low levels, after the below average rainfall from this winter.”

It will also remain relatively mild across most parts during the start of April. Now although it will feel pleasantly mild in the daytime across many parts during this period, it will also be particularly chilly and foggy in parts of northern, eastern, and southern England at times during the evenings/mornings too.

As we progress towards the middle and second half of April, it is likely to become relatively unsettled at times across parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland, and northern England. Some of this more unsettled and cooler weather is also likely to be occasionally wintry in parts of Scotland and northern England. It will also be particularly windy at times within this period too.

I also stated on the 27th February in my 2012 spring forecast:

“The March to April period is also initially looking like a mixed bag of cold and milder weather at times. It will also be particularly windy at times with some wintry showers in places within this period too.”

However, as we head into the latter part of April, there is the potential for a short period of very warm and sunny weather across most parts of the UK. This is likely to produce the warmest days of April for 2012 (temperatures could push well into 20s Celsius across parts of the UK).

I also stated on the 27th February in my 2012 spring forecast:

“The latter part of April and into May could offer some potentially warmer and sunnier periods of weather at times.”

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)
Content copyright © 2010-2012. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

Remaining fine, dry & settled

Remaining fine, dry & settled

As we head into the new working week, things are set to remain fine, dry and settled across most parts of the country. This settled weather will also bring with it some colder evenings and foggier weather across parts of the country too. After a cold start with some early mist and fog patches in places on Monday morning, it will become largely fine and dry across most parts, with some prolonged periods of warm sunshine on offer for many.

Tuesday will also be very similar in nature to Monday, although possibly a little cooler. After another cold start with further mist and fog patches in places on Tuesday morning, it will also become largely fine and settled across most parts thereafter, with some decent periods of sunshine on offer once again across the UK.

Wednesday will remain relatively dry and settled across most parts, after some further early mist and fog patches in places. There will also be some decent periods of sunshine on offer throughout Wednesday too. However, as we progress throughout Wednesday and into Thursday, we may initially see more of an increase in cloudiness across parts of Scotland and northern England. This will hamper any prolonged periods of sunshine in these parts, although elsewhere should remain relatively pleasant for this time of the year, before turning much colder than of late across most parts as we head into next weekend.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

Published: Sunday 25th March 2012Content copyright © 2010-2012. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

Storm Prediction Center issues Slight Risk for March 27

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk of severe weather for parts of the Lower Great Lakes and Midwest regions for March 27.

The Storm Prediction Center highlights a combined 1000-1500 j/kg of instability with veering flow aloft to create a risk for some strong and potentially rotating thunderstorms. More recent returns of the 12z GFS suggest flow veering at 50 knots, increasing the potential for some severe thunderstorms.

Here's the latest 2:00 PM central run of the TRIAD Tornado Model, updated to fix errors.
-Andrew

CFS v2 Projects Below Normal Temperatures

Week 3 (top) and week 4 (bottom) forecasts are in from the CFS v2, and after nailing the record breaking warmth, the CFS is indicating that temperatures may actually become below normal towards mid to late April.

This comes as a ridge of high pressure may come into the Gulf of Alaska, as told in this morning's post.

-Andrew

Record-Breaking Warmth Unlikely as Ridge Fills Gulf of Alaska

The latest GFS 500mb analogue forecast is indicating that another spell of record-breaking warmth is unlikely as a ridge of high pressure moves into the Gulf of Alaska (GOA).

This past winter, warm spells would occur with a low pressure system present in the Gulf of Alaska. That low in the GOA is a traditional signal of a warm spell forthcoming in the US.

With our most recent record-breaking warmth, there was indeed a strong low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska. However, with a ridge now poised to take over, it can be expected that temperatures much closer to average will be prevalent. I'm not saying they will be average, because I am getting some signals that they will be warmer than normal, but temperatures will be closer to average than record breaking.

-Andrew

Saturday, March 24, 2012

Notice

The computer is back up and running at full power. However, because it has been through much more than a computer should go through in the last 48 hours, there will be no updates for the remainder of the day. Do, however, expect thorough weather discussions to come back tomorrow.
All long range forecast release times remain on track.

-Andrew

Friday, March 23, 2012

Notice #2

Update on software issue: I am still working as hard as I can, but things are looking a little too grim for my liking. A repair of the disk does not appear to be successful. More updates as the situation progresses.

Andrew

Notice

This is about as horrible of timing as things can get.
The normal computer I use may have suddenly died out. I am working hard to try and correct the problem, but this does have potential to delay the long range forecast releases. At this time, however, there is no delay.

I will provide updates every so often, but this is the best I have for now.
My sincerest apologies,
-Andrew

Thursday, March 22, 2012

DUST IMPACTING INDIA BADLY,SCENARIO NOT TO CHANGE FOR 24HRS

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

*** MINOR IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL CONDITIONS IN INDIA***
*** DUST STILL SETTLED OVER GUJARAT,RAJASTHAN,CENTRAL INDIA,NORTH INDIA
*** MIDDLE EAST CONDITIONS IMPROVING***
*** CONDITIONS NEARLY NORMAL IN SINDH AND OTHER PARTS OF PAKISTAN***


The Superstorm which originated on 17th March and sent plumes of dust towards Indian Sub continent is still maintaining its strength but has weakened a bit thus improving overall visibility over India.
Morning datas indicate that the visibility is still less in much of India. Most of the areas still have "Widespread Dust" present. 




The above surface weather analysis shows the presence of three low pressures over India. The added dust over Saudi Arabia is still arriving in the form of dust plumes. The below color enhanced imagery clearly indicates a stronger plume over the lower Arabian Sea...


The above Color Enhanced imagery indicates a persisting dust plume at central arabian sea. The dust plume is entering India from the Western India mainly across Maharashtra-Goa border. At the same time, a persisting low pressure over South-Western Saudi Arabia is pulling the sand from Oman,South-Eastern Saudi Arabia which is generating the visible dust plume. So the area comprising of Western India,Central India and some parts of North India shall have a continued widespread dust in the atmosphere. 


The upper air jet stream is expected to amplify and arrive over Oman region by 25th March. This upper level jet shall boost or enhance the upper air wind speed and can help in a bit clearing of the dust. More on that shall be notified later


Forecasts-


Nearly normal conditions with highly reduced suspended dust particles will return from 24th March across the middle east. At the same time parts of Saudi Arabia and Oman will get some widespread dust but improving visibility conditions from today onwards. Across Sindh, conditions shall return to normal from 24th onwards with improved visibility and very less suspended particles

Across India, slight improvement in the conditions are expected but the scenario won't change much till 24th March. The forecasted dust shall continue to maintain the levels and hence we expect the scenario to be similar.


STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES

Long Range Forecast Release Dates

Hey everyone, it's been a while since I touched on the long range forecasts in honor of 500,000 views and 100 models and ensembles on our Weather Models page, and I feel like this has to be addressed.

It's about time you all got a few gifts for checking out and commenting on here, which I greatly appreciate. So here's what will be coming up next week:
(All times are CDT and subject to minor changes.)

-Monday, March 26: 2012 Summer Forecast (3:30 pm)
-Tuesday, March 27: Updated Spring-Summer Tornado Forecast (12:00 pm)
-Wednesday, March 28: Atlantic Hurricane Forecast (12:00 pm)
-Friday, March 30: 2012-2013 Preliminary Forecast (12:00 pm)

-Andrew

Dry & settled weekend ahead

Dry & settled weekend

As we progress through this evening and into tomorrow, some mist and fog patches will form in parts of southern and eastern England. Some of these patches may also become slow to clear during tomorrow morning in these parts, before turning dry and bright in most parts thereafter. It will, however, remain cloudy across parts of Scotland during Friday, with some interspersions of pleasant sunshine at times in parts of northern England.

After some early mist and fog patches in places on Saturday morning, it will become largely fine and dry across most parts. Most of the UK will see some prolonged sunny spells, although this could be a little hazy at times in parts of Scotland and northern England.

After some further mist and fog patches in places on Sunday morning too, it will also become largely fine and dry across most parts once again. Most of the UK will experience some decent sunny spells, although this could prove to be a little hazy once again in certain parts throughout the day. It will also feel relatively warm as we progress throughout Sunday afternoon, with temperatures ranging from 16C – 19C across most of the country.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)


Published: Thursday 22nd March 2012 GMTContent copyright © 2010-2012. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

DUST ENTERS NAGPUR,MAINTAINS INTENSITY IN INDIA

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

***WIDESPREAD DUST ARRIVES IN NAGPUR*****
***VISIBILITY DIPS TO 1.5KM FROM 6KM IN JUST FEW HOURS***
***INTENSITY MAINTAINED IN MOST OF THE PART OF INDIA***


*** CONDITIONS IMPROVING FURTHER IN THE MIDDLE EAST***


***** RAW ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE DUST HAS SPREAD IN THE ENTIRE INDIA INCLUDING SOUTHERN INDIA******


MAJOR SCENARIO UNFURLING NOW*******




Above- Mr.Sampath Iyengar from Mumbai sends the above photos taken on 21st March 2012 from Lokhandwala area Mumbai. 








Above- I took some photos of the Dust covered streets of Nagpur,India today at around 1030PM IST. The visibility is continuously at 1.5km since early morning with " Haze" conditions..




THE HISTORIC SUPERSTORM SENT DUST WHICH HAS GRIPPED WESTERN,NORTHERN,CENTRAL INDIA ENTERED IN NAGPUR TODAY MORNING. 
THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY THE VISUAL OBSERVATIONS AND THE VISIBILITY PARAMETERS PRESENT AT THE AIRPORT WHICH SHOWED A SHARP DIP AS FOLLOWS-  


ABOVE-  THE WUNDERGROUND DATA OF NAGPUR AIRPORT SHOWS A DIP IN THE VISIBILITY FROM 0310AM TODAY WITH HAZE CONDITIONS. THE PRESENT VISIBILITY IS AROUND 1.5KM HERE

HOWEVER, THE CONDITIONS HERE ARE NOT AS SEVERE AS THEY WERE IN MUMABI OR OTHER AREAS TILL NOW BUT WITH THE INCREASING PERIOD, I DO EXPECT THE VISIBILITY TO DIP FURTHER IN THE AFTERNOON PERIOD

PEOPLE DRIVING VEHICLES MUST WATCH OUT FOR LOW VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL INDIA***********







DUST SPREADS IN INDIA!

AS SEEN FROM THE ABOVE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE ENTIRE INDIA ALMOST IS COVERED UNDER THE DUST. THE MORE IMPACTS ARE IN CENTRAL INDIA AND RAJASTHAN. 


NOTE- ANALYSIS OF THE ACTIVITIES FROM MIDDLE EAST SHALL COME SOON AS ITS DARK THERE AROUND MAKING IT IMPOSSIBLE FOR VISIBLE IMAGERY TO APPEAR