12z GFS shows 10 inches of snow for New York October 29

Today's 12z GFS is indicating snow of 10 inches to fall on New York state on the October 29 period. It looks like this is panning out as a result of several days of model runs showing this solution. If you will remember, back on October 16, we showed the GFS projecting over 2 feet of snow for the region in the Northeast (click here for the post). While I had stated I had low confidence in that happening, I was at that time concerned that the GFS was latching on to a trend, and it appears that is what the GFS has done. I project between 2-12 inches for New York on this Oct. 29-30 period where snowfall is projected at this time to occur. The reason for the big spread in amounts is to account for the fact that the time period of the potential event is still 6 days out, leaving too much room for error to chance a closer range in snowfall amounts.

Tropical Depression 18 Aims for Mexico

Tropical Depression 18 (TD 18) is aiming for Mexico at this hour. Even though it is only a depression, the NHC forecasts this system to grow to Tropical Storm status quickly and go for Mexico.
This does go against the 18z model suite, though, and we are closely watching both the NHC and ensemble tracks as they come out at 7 pm tonight.

18z ensembles