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Sunday, April 1, 2012

Remaining chilly with some snow on higher ground

Remaining chilly with some snow on higher ground

As we head into the new working week, it will become unsettled across northern and eastern parts of the UK, although elsewhere should remain relatively dry and settled. During Monday morning, an area of rain will push in across parts of Scotland, bringing with it some snow to higher ground in these parts.

Elsewhere it should begin dry and cloudy across many parts, with some rain showers pushing into parts of England and Wales later. It will, however, feel mildish and remain relatively dry across southern parts of the UK throughout Monday.

As we progress throughout Monday and into Tuesday, another area of rain will initially push in across the far north of the UK, before spreading further south across the country as we head into Tuesday. This is likely to bring some further snowfall across higher ground in Scotland, with the possibility of some sleet/snow showers to some lower levels in these parts too. Any risk of significant snowfall from this cold front (as forecast by others) is also likely to be restricted to higher ground in these parts too. Other parts of the country are likely to experience more in the way of rain, with the possibility of some wintry showers to eastern parts of the UK.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)
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WRF Showing Rotating Updraft Potential

This image shows the maximum updraft helicity. In other words, it shows the spinning of thunderstorms as they form, which could create a tornadic situation.
There is an abnormally high rate of helicity in Kentucky and Southern Indiana, which greatly worries me that the tornado risk may be a bit underestimated with instability around 1000 j/kg.

-Andrew