Severe Weather to unfurl across NE TX,NRN LA,AR,NORTHERN AND WESTN MS,TN

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Extreme Weather Forecaster,

Concerning- Moderate risk of severe storms in USA

The latest model guidance is indicating the massive upper level cut off trough amplifying as the low approaches eastwards. The upper level trough with massive jets at the 850mb level will heavily bring moisture over areas of AR-LA-WEST MS especially creating a very moist area.Meanwhile, CAP seems to be 7.8 in AR, strong updrafts to clear the CAP. A strong vertical shear is expected to develop within the forecast high CAPE leading to a high Values of EHI rising above 3.0. At the same time, the upper winds continue to push northwards, similar setup is expected to build over MS valley and NE region. What looks to be a dryline setup across NE.
For,
NORTHEAST TX,NORTHERN LA,MUCH OF AR,NORTHERN AND WESTERN MS,AND WESTERN TN
A moderate risk indicates severe thunderstorms and hails which will be initiating afternoon to evening