First SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN INDIA BY 30TH DEC 2010

METD WEATHER

AKSHAY DEORAS

SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

The Snowfall of the year is in range now for J&K,Himachal Pradesh and higher reaches as a Western Disturbance will bring plenty of rain and snowfall in this region on 29th,30th Dec 2010 (WED-THU).

All ingredients will be coming together between Europe and Asia from Saturday as a large scale mid level trough forms with negative vorticity from the low pressure pulse from Mediterranean sea - typical Western Disturbance.

FORECAST

From Saturday, band of low pressure will initiate over North of Iran at the upper level first. ( SEE LAST IMAGE OR FIRST FROM BOTTOM SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE INITIATING NORTH EAST OF J&K AS SEEN FROM CONCENTRIC CIRCLES IN THE UNSHADED VAST AREA)

As conditions come together for intensification of the low at mid and aloft, A trough will form as air cols down more and more due to lifting process and resulting into a dense parcel of air noted at the 300mb,850mb,500mb plots(SEE FIRST IMAGE FROM TOP) as regions with lower potential heights ( In Northern Hemisphere) For this system, the 500 mb height shall be around 564mb out of 570mb in the same longitude zone.

Amplification of trough will continue resulting in the formation of a well marked Western Disturbance landing at the North India region by 29th Dec 2010 (WED). (SEE SECOND IMAGE FROM TOP. SHAPE SIMILAR TO A TROUGH AT 500MB)

Rainfall in plain regions and SNOWFALL IN HILLY REGIONS LIKE ( SEE THIRD IMAGE FROM TOP)

KASHMIR VALLEY,SRINAGAR CITY,KARGIL DIST,LADAKH AND ENTIRE NORTHERN JAMMU AND KASHMIR WILL RECEIVE GOOD SNOWFALL AND HEAVY AS PER THE PRESENT FORECAST.

THIS WILL BE THE TYPICAL SNOWFALL THAT THESE AREAS GET DURING WINTER

IN HIMACHAL PRADESH ALSO,SNOWFALL WILL HAPPEN ON Wednesday LATER PERIOD ,THURSDAY ( DURATION APPLIES TO J&K ALSO)

SUBSEQUENT RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORM IN PLAINS

NORTHERN PLAINS LIKE PUNJAB,HARYANA,DELHI AND OTHER PLACES WILL GET RAINFALL MOSTLY FROM 29TH DEC LATE PERIOD AND ON 30 TH DEC 2010. TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME AS THEY AIR AS THE AIR AT 850MB DOESN'T SHOW ANY MOISTURE HOLDING CAPACITY ( MEANING DRYNESS IN AIR.