Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
Forecast for the Possible Cyclone Formation -
As mentioned in the previous few weather updates, forecast models continue to indicate the formation of a Strong Low Pressure in the Arabian Sea in the first week of June.
GFS,UKMET models agree formation of a Brief Low pressure ( Might be a Cyclone) in Arabian Sea
The persisting area of convection between 75E-80E,5N-15N and having cloud top temperature of -60C,50-100 mb/hr 850mb Vorticity over a 28-30C SST( Sea Surface Temp) and gripped by a 30kt+ Low level convergence ( LLC) is likely to advance further as the low is expected to intensify in a 30kt divergent outflow aloft. There has been a remarkable improvement in the region of convection is past 24hrs as depicted by the increased favorable thermodynamic states of cyclogenesis as well as the the lower convergence and upper divergence. The Total Precipitable Water ( PW) in the area of convection has also increased upto 60mm as the atmosphere circulates due to the presence of a low pressure area aloft in North Western Arabian Sea.
Wind shears don't look a problem for cyclogenesis.
The LLC shall organize by 3rd June 2011 and shall initially track parallel to Western Coast AND PROVIDING -
* ROUGH STATE OF SEA FROM 2ND JUNE TO 7TH JUNE 2011
* HIGH SURFS,GALE WINDS AND HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST DURING THE MOVEMENT
* CHECK THE METD WEATHER ALERT MAP FOR MORE DETAILS
STATEWISE WARNINGS-
KERALA-
VERY VERY HEAVY RAINS SHALL CONTINUE WITH INCREASED THREAT FOR FLOODING TILL 7TH JUNE 2011
*** PEOPLE MUST TAKE CAUTION FOR VISITING BEACHES**
KARNATAKA -
** VERY VERY HEAVY RAINS SHALL HIT THE WESTERN COAST WITH GALE WINDS AND HIGHLY ROUGH STATE OF SEA
*** WATCH OUT FOR STRONG WINDS AND FLOODING POTENTIALS***
** HGH SURF**
WARNING IN EFFECT TILL 8TH JUNE 2011
3] WESTERN TAMIL NADU
HEAVY RAINS TILL 3RD JUNE
** NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE**
4] LAKSHADWEEP
THIS ISLAND SHALL GET VERY VERY HEAVY RAINS,GALE WINDS
** STRONG SURFS**
***PEOPLE ARE REQUESTED TO TAKE PRECAUTION AT THE EARLIEST***
WARNING TILL 8TH JUNE 2011
** MODERATE RAINFALL THEN TO CONTINUE FOR MORE 3-4 DAYS THAT IS TILL 12-13TH JUNE 2011
5] GOA-
HEAVY RAINS ON 4TH JUNE AND 5TH JUNE
THE WINDS ALOFT SHALL DRIVE THE CYCLONE WESTWARDS TOWARDS OMEN COAST
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