New Stratospheric Warming Propagates Down to Lower Stratosphere

Here we have the stratospheric temperatures at the 5mb level. We can see a sharp spike in the past as well as a more recent, but more subtle, warming event. Whenever we get these times of stratospheric warming, we want to see the warming propagate (shift) down to the lower levels of the stratosphere. And in this case, that just happened.

70mb temperatures

Stratospheric temperatures at 70mb have spiked with this latest warming in the stratosphere. This is indeed an encouraging sign that the atmosphere may be getting tired of the continuous cold in the Poles and warm in the US. If we can see another Significant Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event (of which there has been chatter about one just over the horizon) propagate to the 70mb level, there is an increased risk of the pattern changing.
The thing is, however, if we get a SSW to happen, it would still take a good 2-4 weeks for the effects to even begin. That would mean February would be a virtual scratch. But luckily the stratosphere isn't the only variable we see to incite pattern shifts.