StormWatch- The Next 16 Days

January 10-15

A disturbance coming off of the Alaskan Low regime in Alaska looks to come southward and rapidly deepen when it hits the Great Lakes. Seeing as how it is coming from Alaska would indicate that the Alaskan Low may be weakening. Another thing to watch for this storm is how cold it may be. Because it is coming from Alaska, it can be expected that cold temperatures will be present as the system moves southward. What you see on the left are the 6z GFS Ensembles at hour 180- January 12. We extended the dates to provide the days for when the storm affects the North Plains and eventually the Eastern Great Lakes. Something interesting is how all of the ensembles are showing this, which greatly raises my confidence level. So here's my prediction for this storm.
Up to 10 inches in the Upper Great Lakes. Rain for the Mid-Atlantic and far eastern Ohio Valley. Blizzard conditions possible in Wisconsin and parts of Minnesota. Depending on the rate at which the storm rapidly strengthens, accumulations may exceed 12 inches.

January 16-20

Some GFS Ensembles are showing a storm system forming across the US. There is some indication that the Eastern Half of the US. I would not be surprised with this storm formation, as the persistent ridges interrupting the Polar Vortex would be pushing small parts of the Alaskan Low out into the Pacific or Canada to affect the US. Those ensembles are on the left at hour 324- January 18. In case you don't know, the storms are in the blue. If there are deeper shades of blue, or even pink, that indicates a stronger low pressure system. My confidence level is too low to forecast for this storm.