Long Range Forecast: Temperature

In week 1 (top), the CFS v2 is indicating extremely warm temperatures to be present across all of North America- an uncommon feat. The only exception is Alaska, which is forecasted to be much below normal. The unusually warm spring theory looks to be off to a great start per these CFS v2 forecasts.
Week 2 (bottom) still has a huge area of much above normal temperatures, but as the forecast period increases, so does the uncertainty, thus the lessened intensity of the temperature forecasts. However, Alaska still remains much below normal.

In week 3 (top), a large swath of above normal temperatures still exists over the North America, but here's the thing- notice how Alaska is no longer cold. This could very well mean that the infamous Alaskan Vortex could be replaced by a ridge, thus lower temperatures in the US. But this is not reflected in the US, meaning that some other indices may be influencing the pattern to disprove the possible below normal temps and keep them above normal.
The same situation exists in week 4.

Long Range Forecast: Precipitation

Here is the week 1 (top) and week 2 (bottom) forecasts from the CFS v2 of precipitation for North America. Unsurprisingly, the Northwest will remain wet as systems continue to crash ashore. Perhaps the most significant parts of this forecast is the dry East and wet South Plains. The dry East US indicates that warm air should continue to be in place with one or a series of ridges of high pressure. The wetness in the Plains indicates where severe weather would strike with any system in the next few weeks.

 For week 3 (top) and week 4 (bottom), the colors are less intense as a result of lower confidence as the forecast period increases. However, we can still see dry patches in parts of the East US, again saying that ridges should be fairly common in that area. However, the forecasts are indicating the area of precipitation to move east, meaning that the possible ridges would be losing ground against storm systems.

Long Range Forecast: Jet Stream

Here's the week 1 (top) and week 2 (bottom) forecasts from the CFS v2 model for the jet stream. positive anomalies indicate a amplified jet stream, while blues represent a more subtle jet stream. For week 1, the US will be under a pretty de-amplified jet stream as it will be pushed further north into the Canada/US border, which is just out of the picture. The same story goes for week 2.

For week 3 (top) and week 4 (bottom), the colors are less intense as the forecast period and uncertainty grows. However, it is still reasonable to see that the jet stream will remain displaced north per the arrow directions. 

Long-Range Forecast (Out to 3 Months)

6-14 DAYS OUTLOOK 

6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook

6-10 Day Temperature Outlook

The next 6-10 days will feature cooler conditions across the Southeast US, where chances of below normal temperatures rise above 60%, investing quite a bit of confidence in this forecast. This cool down will also affect the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley regions. Areas in the South hit hard by the drought will get some relief from this cool down. However, the West Coast will see much above normal temperatures, with areas like Seattle andLos Angeles in this warmer area.

When looking at precipitation anomalies, we see still below normal temperatures likely across the south-central US northward through the Plains. A small area including much of Colorado will be under the chance for above normal precipitation. A similar above normal precipitation region will extend from the Northeast into the Great Lakes regions.

8-14 DAYS OUTLOOK

8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook

8-14 Day Temperature Outlook

The next 8-14 day period will feature the cool down in the East US retreating to include Florida in the worst area of cooler temperatures, while the Great Lakes and Plains will ease out of this harsh cold spell, mainly affecting the South. Cooler temperatures will still exist from the Northeast into the Ohio Valley and along the Eastern Seaboard, but with not as intense effects. The warm air mass stationed out west will slowly glide eastward, helping to diminish the colder temperatures.

The Precipitation Outlook includes a huge portion of the country under a below normal precipitation spell for this 8-14 day period. While the Northeast and Northwest will be under some potentially above normal precipitation, it will be a heavy majority of the country that may see more sun than rain.

1 MONTH OUTLOOK

1 Month Precipitation Outlook

1 Month Temperature Outlook

Temperatures will not be as extreme as we saw in the 6-10 day outlooks and the 8-14 day outlooks, but this one month outlook will still include a warmer than normal air mass prevailing over the Plains and Midwest into the Southwest. Florida will have its own little area of below normal precipitation, while the East Coast will end up in a moderated month of temperatures.

The Southern half of the country will be the main areas under a precipitation deficit according to this one month outlook. It is not too surprising, as we enter a La Nina and the trademark precipitation deficit returns for the South. Notice the area in the Ohio Valley with an 'EC' in it. While the 'EC' doesn't matter (it means equal chances for above/below normal precip), notice how the area of EC is set up- it is set up in a way that promotes more precipitation in the Ohio Valley than other areas- another sign of a La Nina.

3 MONTH OUTLOOK

For the 3 month period, let's take a look at precipitation first. Once again, as in the one month outlook, we see the 'EC' present again in the Ohio Valley, but this time with more of a penetrating effect of more precipitation than other areas placed more southerly than usual. It could mean some drought relief for this winter, but let's not get into something like that just yet. We remain a far ways off. Anyways, The South will begin to slip back into a rut of very below normal precipitation anomalies throughout this 3 month period, while the Northern Plains into the Northwest will be in a above average precipitation area.

Temperature wise, the above average temperature will be present in the South Central Plains, extending northwestward into far eastern portions of the Southwest. This isn't horribly surprising- we saw it coming several months ago, but not with confidence. Notice the cooler temperatures at the tip of Florida. It isn't too significant but may end up being something to watch. Also, a small portion of the North Plains is forecast to be under a cooler than normal 3 month average.

Long Range Forecast: Cool Air moves East, Ridge builds in the West

This is the Long Range Forecast until September 26, 2011.
This period will feature the cool Canadian High pressure moving east and a building ridge of high pressure in the West in the Nevada region. That ridge will expand eastward and eventually begin affecting the Midwest and possibly even the East Coast. Here's the current 8 day temperature anomaly shown in Figure 1, the visual aid of the cool air moving east in Figure 2, and the building ridge in the West in Figure 3.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3 (Upper Right Image- red line moving far upward shows  the building high pressure.)