Another Shortwave trough to bring series of Rain/Snow in North India

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Another Shortwave trough originating from Mediterranean sea is likely to hammer North India with a blend of rains/snow.

The GFS models are indicating the presence of a negative vorticity system reaching the 552dm height at 500mb level will precipitate heavy rains in Central Pakistan today and tomorrow.

As conditions come together for strengthening of trough over Pakistan ( typical setup),

the advancing shortwave shall modify to a strong extratropical storm system by tomorrow(12th Feb) and will cause rains and snowfall in North India from tomorrow(12th feb)

Jammu and Kashmir-

The state shall receive rains and snowfall from 12th Feb - 17th Feb 2011

For Srinagar

As the temperature profile around 850mb shall be above freezing point

Widespread rains are expected from tomorrow till 15th Feb 2011

( Meteogram posted above)

SNOWFALL IN SRINAGAR ON 14TH FEB

For Higher reaches like Gulmarg,Sonamarg ... Pehalgam etc

SNOWFALL for sure from tonight WITH HEAVY AMOUNTS

ON SATURDAY,SUNDAY,MONDAY,TUESDAY

*** MARK 5 ALERT,PDS,AVALANCHE WARNING FROM METD WEATHER

KARGIL,DRASS AND LADAKH

MODERATE SNOWFALL IS LIKELY FROM 12TH FEB-17TH FEB...( INTENSITY REDUCING FROM 15TH ONWARDS)

Thus for J&K, I expect daily overcast to mostly cloudy conditions.

Heavy snow in all higher reaches.

Heaviest snow on 13th Feb in higher reaches*

Himachal Pradesh

Higher reaches shall receive snowfall from tomorrow till 17th Feb 2011

Snowfall shall be VERY HEAVY FOR NORTHERN HP ON SUNDAY(13TH FEB) AND FOR CENTRAL HP ON 16TH FEB

MARK 5 ALERT FROM METD WEATHER

Manali shall receive snowfall on Sunday night which shall be moderate.

due to deficient moisture at lower levels, I don't expect snowfall in Central HP and Southern HP.

Rather Freezing rain or SLEET is possible

Rains in Northern Plain

Subsequent rainfall will hit North India plains especially Punjab,Haryana,Delhi,Uttaranchal with thunderstorm also.

Rainfall shall be there from Monday with periods of no rainfall in between also.

Tue-Wed( 15-16th Feb) rainfall amount will be slightly greater

I don't see chance of hails this time as the freezing level stays aloft and any formed hailstone shall reach the ground as raindrop due to warmer temp.profile

For New Delhi,Chandigarh rainfall is eminnent on 15th and 16th Feb and not on the rest days where rainfall is expected in Amritsar

Multiple Weather Events likely in India

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Concerning- Multiple Weather events in India over the next few days which includes

1) Snowfall in North India on 29th Jan 2011 ( some period on 30th Jan 2011)

2) Chance of formation of a Tropical Low pressure in Bay of Bengal( Already present but intensification by 30th)

3) Possible another snowfall event by 3-4th Feb 2011 in North India

1} Snowfall in North India on 29th Jan 2011 and some periods on 30th Jan 2011

A loosely bound western disturbance( Extra-Tropical Cyclone) is situated West-North West of Pakistan as depicted the by decrease in the 500mb height indicating presence of storm at mid levels. GFS 12z runs are in agreement for further intensification of the low pressure and to become a classic shortwave trough over Pakistan-India border sometime tomorrow morning to afternoon.

This Shortwave trough is likely to precipitate snow/rain in N India.

Snowfall is expected in Kashmir valley,Kargil area,Ladakh from now onwards( applicable for Central j&K) whereas for Kashmir valley,Himachal Pradesh,Uttaranchal snowfall shall begin tomorrow afternoon to evening hours and shall be very heavy in Kashmir Valley,Northern Himachal Pradesh and some higher reaches in Uttaranchal.

Lower regions will get rainfall. However light rainfall may happen in Northern Punjab,Haryana,Chandigarh but chance with a mild thunderstorm ( Probability of hails also ) at the post evening to night hours and continue on Sunday morning also.

2} Tropical Low pressure in Bay of Bengal

The recent water vapor satellite is indicating a weakly organised convection area to the south of subtropical ridge having cloud tops over -50C. The computer models are indicating that the system shall become more symmetrical ( intensify) in an area of minimum vertical shear( 10kt around) and expected 24hrs nature of decreasing.

Already in the pool of warm SST with favorable upper divergence to permit convection,

if a low level convergence builds up in next 24hrs, then system shall have a well defined structure and possibility of a Depression in next 24hrs.

It depends on Low level convergence, thats why JTWC has not made any update on it

3} Possibility of another snowfall in North India by 3-4th Feb 2011

Well, right now there seems to be a possibility of another western disturbance landing on North India by 3-4th FEb

More details on it later as situation unfurls