Strong Tornadoes likely in USA

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Severe Thunderstorms are expected to errupt in the warm sector with upper 70F Dewpoints in the Gulf States.

The Convection belt looks in an area extending from SE Texas,into Louisiana and prominently in Mississippi,Alabama

Thunderstorms are expected to build in the MLCAPE from 1000-upper 2000J/KG and strong lifting mechanism indicated by Lift Index upto -8 in Louisiana.

Enhanced Convection shall appear in Louisiana where CAPE values favor for Deep Layer Convection during the mid afternoon period with the breaking of CAP.

As the surface low progresses eastwards with the arrival of cold front in Mississippi and some 40kt LLJ in the presence of Nice Low level curvatures in Hodograph ( Rich Shears)

Tornado threat looks strong for Central to Eastern,NE Mississippi and Central Alabama.

Looking at the models, it seems that my tornado target lies Eastern Mississippi corridor AND EXTENDING IT INTO WESTERN ALABAMA DURING EVENING HOURS OR SO.

** STRONG TORNADOES AND LARGE HAILS ARE EXPECTED IN AL,MS

Tornadoes to AIM Southern States of USA. SPC UPGRADES TO MODERATE RISK

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

There is a Moderate Risk of Severe Storms across Louisiana,SW Mississippi.

Massive upper trough having discrete jet streaks amplifying into Texas-Oklahoma shall bring some severe weather down south.

Severe weather shall erupt into a wide area stretching from Eastern,SE Oklahoma into Central and East Central Texas in afternoon period. Intense convection is likely into SE and Central TX due to presence of CAPE reaching upto 2000J/Kg in the area of 60F dewpoint East of the Dryline.

Threat for Afternoon tornado is less but threat increases later period with the progression of dryline westward and presence of Low Level Jets. ( Evening to night hours)

The primary threat looks for Western Louisiana border around Marshall,TX

Evening storms shall be capable for producing isolated thunderstorms with hails which shall modify amidst 1000J/KG CAPE and Light to Moderate SHEARS for tornadoes.

Main threat lies across Louisiana and SW Mississippi into overnight.

Moderate Risk upgrade

Developing storms will progress into LA,Mississippi into evening to night hours with the progress of warm front, supercell formations shall enhance and produce some tornadoes. There is a CAP though in this region.

Heavy Rains also expected due to HP supercells.

Widespread wind damage also possible

My tornado target lies close to Marshall,TX for late afternoon period.

Nocturnal long time tornadoes possible in LA,Mississippi