UK & Europe Severe Weather Warning - Heavy snow & below average temperatures

Duplicate from exactaweather.com (Published: 13th December 2010)

I have had a stream of questions, in regards to solar activity and my forecast on the widespread heavy snowfall. In Layman's terms, the position and strength of the jet streams help meteorologists to predict future weather. Climate factors such as La Nina can also hugely influence the jet streams. In terms of the UK and Europe, the general trend is more precipitation due to a stronger jet stream in the North Atlantic. As I have previously stated, this extra precipitation during below average temperatures from low solar activity and the gulf stream shift, will result in widespread heavy snowfall. Especially with a La Nina of this magnitude, that has the potential to cause a sharp decline in global temperatures and may well last through until 2012.

I am also well aware that sunspot activity has increased this year, and I will consider this in my future forecasts. I will however also be considering the energy within these sunspots and a number of other important factors, that do not appear very convincing at present. It is also vital that we understand the lag effect within our climate system on earth, from the low solar activity in 2008 and 2009.

So far we have had at least seven deaths in the UK, and at least sixty across Europe, all due to the recent cold weather we have experienced in what was technically autumn. Hence my past and present warnings! We have also seen the earliest widespread UK snowfall in decades, and the coldest night on record in parts of the UK during November.

So there is good news and bad news in all of this. The good news is that a white Christmas is a high possibility across many parts of the UK. The bad news is that my forecast remains exactly the same as below, in terms of well below average temperatures and widespread heavy snowfall. Awareness amongst the vulnerable is still therefore key, especially as we are about to enter round two of the severe winter I forecast earlier this year.

May I take this opportunity to wish everyone a Merry Christmas!

However please take extra care with this next bout of severe weather, as my gut feeling is telling me that we could be in this for a long haul with very few mild spells, due to the natural factors I have considered in my forecast.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

Exactaweather.com - Winter 2010/11 Update

My apologies regarding the small delay everyone, but I have been rather busy of late. I am now working with exactaweather.com as one of there UK long range forecasters. Don't worry everyone I am not getting paid a penny, so I will not be changing any of my opinions.

Exacta Weather is a non profit weather organisation consisting of meteorologists from around the world, who share data and research on a voluntary basis like myself. The forecasters and planned forecasters simply have a passion for weather with a background history in the subject, and proven track records in accurate weather forecasting.

I feel this is a huge step in the right direction for me at the present time, especially as I have been largely ignored, even though I have been reporting this winter since very early this year in my blog and research papers.  I will still publish to my blog for nostalgic purposes, my main efforts and detailed forecasts will however now be with exacta weather.

As for this winter guys, the gulf stream has not improved and we are still in a minimum solar cycle. Both of these factors will have dire effects on the UK in terms of temperature reductions (solar cycle - global effects). The La Nina continues to ever strengthen and is capable of further temperature reductions (globally). This will also bring more precipitation to the UK in the form of widespread and heavy snowfalls. It is going to be as bad as I have originally forecast with very few and if any mild spells, now let's look at the accuracy of this forecast come March/April 2011.

Feel free to view my exactaweather.com UK long range forecast, or contact me through them.

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

http://www.exactaweather.com/The_Team_-_Contact_Us.html

http://www.exactaweather.com/

J.Madden (UK Weather Geek)

UK Winter Forecast 2010/2011 Update

I have had a stream of questions in relation to the amount of snowfall that we are likely to receive in the UK this coming winter.  As previously stated freezing temperatures will be the main concern, however heavy snowfall is also plausible as another major issue that we are facing due to the extra cloud cover and cooling that is generally produced during low solar activity. We must also consider the establishing La Nina as this is generally influential to the UK in terms of the change in global weather patterns, locations that tend to be wet will become wetter. We currently experience an ample amount of wet weather in the UK, so it would be adequate to expect even more precipitation.  More precipitation during freezing temperatures with the increased cloud cover from low sunspot activity = HEAVY SNOWFALL!