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Tuesday, May 18, 2010

TC LAILA HEADING TO INDIA


METD WEATHER,
AKSHAY DEORAS
EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTER,

CONCERNING- NEW TRACK OF TC LAILA

IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUESTED

The tropical cyclone 1B now named as Laila has strengthened since last night due to organising around mid level and low level circulation and is strengthning to CAT 1 by 1700hrs,19th MAY 2010
Present track of Laila as been detected on 0500hrs,19th may was 13.2N,83.3E about 190 km east-northeast of Chennai, 480 km west-southwest of Visakhapatnam and 1200 km southwest of Kolkata.
NCEP models with JTWC are indicating cyclone will intensify now onwards till tomorrow before it makes a landfall as CAT 1 with winds over 110km/hr
LANDFALL OF TROPICAL CYCLONE LAILA AT MACHILIPATANAM IS EXPECTED TO BE ON 20TH MAY 2010,THURSDAY BETWEEN 04:30AM - 06:30AM.PEOPLE MUST TAKE SHELTER THIS NIGHT AND TAKE THE WARNINGS SERIOUSLY AS THIS CAN CLAIM A LIFT.HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA TILL THE CYCLONE EXITS TOTALLY.
VISHAKHAPATANAM IS OUT OF THE MAJOR ALERT AS CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN OVER LAND AND WILL LIKELY DAMAGE THERE. BUT HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ON 20-21 MAY.
THE LATEST TRACK SHOWS CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER ORISSA AND BE A LOW DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT PASSES SOUTH KOLKATA ON 23RD MAY,0000HRS

People must listen to the alerts
Another tropical cyclone will form near African Coast in Arabian sea
the area of convection
 previously located 
near 11.0n 55.5e, is
 now located 

near 10.8n 55.1e,
 approximately 
110 nm southeast 
of socotra island.
 Animated infrared
 satellite imagery

 depicts a developing 
low-level circulation
 center (LLCC) with 
deep convective 
banding over the 
southern semi-Circle
. An 181721z metop-a 
image also indicates
 a strengthening,
 well-defined LLCC
 with convective
 banding wrapping
 from the southwest
 into the northwest
 quadrant. 
The 181721z
 ascat ambiguity analysis

 showed a small, tight
 LLCC with 20-25 knot 
winds near the center
 and 30-35 knot winds
 displaced along the
 southwestern periphery 
of the LLCC. Upper-level
 analysis indicates 
a more favorable
 environment with
 weak vertical wind
 shear and diffluent flow 
over the LLCC. 
The system is expected to
 continue developing, 
aided by the enhanced 
southwesterly surface flow
 and improved northeasterly
 flow over yemen. Maximum
 sustained surface winds
 are estimated at 
25 to 30 knots.
 Minimum sea level 

pressure is estimated
 to be near 1001 mb.
 The potential for the
 development of a
 significant tropical 
cyclone within the next 
24 hours is upgraded to
 good

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