UK Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012
The importance of the Gulf Stream and thermohaline circulation (THC) are vital in regards to the upcoming 2011-2012 winter. I firstly issued my original warning on Exacta Weather over four months back in regards to the upcoming winter. I also clearly stated at the time “that the UK will begin to see the dire lag effects of the Gulf Stream, especially if nothing improves soon”. I first issued my concerns in regards to the gulf loop current and the functioning of the thermohaline circulation over 12 months back, along with the consequences of what might happen in regards to the Gulf Stream since 2008.
In terms of sea surface temperature in regards to the gulf stream, the diagram (FIG.1) below should be more comparable to the left hand side, than the right hand side at present. Unfortunately the NOAA only allow you to run reports for a short time period now, hence this being the example I have used.
FIG.1 NOAA, (2011)
In terms of the surface horizontal current in regards to the gulf stream, the diagram (FIG.2) below should also be more comparable to the left hand side in 2009, than the right hand side at present.
FIG.2 NOAA, (2009 and 2011)
The gulf loop current is a key part of the thermohaline circulation that regulates world temperature. This has drastically altered the Gulf Stream and this is not the sort of system that can re-establish as rapidly as it declined. So, unless I am mistaken and the textbooks are wrong, the UK will without a doubt see progressively worsening winters due to its latitude, as will other European countries that benefit from this valuable heat source.
There are some recent suggestions that a neglected current known as the Agulhas Current may compensate for this valuable loss of heat, in the form of leakage. Unfortunately, there is very little or no evidence to confirm this, with no immediate signs of compensation in terms of the Gulf Stream. It is difficult to assume that this is the answer to our problems, especially with something that has been rarely studied and is very difficult to measure.
There are also suggestions that the Gulf Stream acts as a major steering mechanism for the jet stream. Although I do believe that it has some influence, a primary driver of the jet stream within my calculations is also solar activity.
We must also consider other major natural factors such as La Niña, and how this can influence the jet stream in terms of the UK and Europe. Recent NOAA predictions give a 50% chance that La Niña will have completely disappeared by June 2011. However, I am not convinced that it will completely disappear. Recent indicators may suggest neutral conditions for the season ahead, but it is also important to take forecast accuracy into consideration for this time of year and the current phase of PDO. The possibility of La Niña redeveloping will become clearer over the next few months.
Periods of low solar activity at present and what we have experienced in recent years, influence the Earth’s atmosphere by allowing it to cool, with a somewhat more profound effect over Northern Europe and the UK. Low solar activity also enhances cloud formation and therefore influences lower temperatures, with future repercussions of low solar activity in future cycles. This also has a major influence on the geomagnetic index, solar flux, and the behaviour of the jet stream.
In terms of sunspot activity, the diagram (FIG.3) below should be more comparable to the left hand side during a solar maximum in 2001, than the right hand side at present.
FIG.3 SOHO/NASA (2001 and 2011)
Although sunspot activity has increased and there are some visible sunspots, they really are minuscule in comparison to what they should be like during a solar maximum.
It is also important to consider the Icelandic volcanic eruptions Eyjafjallajökull and Grimsvotn, in terms of sunlight reflection over the Northern Hemisphere from an already quiet sun.
Based on the natural factors that I have covered and in terms of how I calculate solar activity into my forecasts, it would be adequate to suggest prolonged periods of well below average temperatures and widespread heavy snowfall throughout this winter. This will result in the fourth bad winter in succession for the UK, and will prove to be the worst of them all. I now fully expect records to be broken, with the Highlands of Scotland being once again particularly hard hit. It is therefore vital to start preparing now in terms of high energy bills, and raised awareness amongst the elderly and most vulnerable people.
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