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Saturday, June 11, 2011

Joint Typhoon Warning Centre upgrades the system to a Tropical Cyclone.


HEAVY RAINS,GALE WARNING FOR PAKISTAN SOUTHERN COAST IS CANCELLED
ROUGH STATE OF SEA CONTINUES IN THE AREA


METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster


The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre had earlier issued Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert ( Check out last post)

The centre again picked up the system today by mentioning it as Tropical Cyclone 1 or Cyclone Keila

However as per JTWC the winds are around 35kt at centre 65KM/HR.

LOCATIONS -
19.9N,71.7E BASED ON DATA REPORTED AT 1200HRS GMT

FORECAST-

*** THE CENTRE OF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE EAST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
*** SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAKELY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND LACK OF SYMMETRICAL SHAPE
*** UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS LACK OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT LIMITING CONVECTION NEAR INDIAN COASTS

*** THE CLOUDING REMAINS DETACHED TO WEST OF LOW

*** THE LOW PRESSURE SHALL TRAVEL NORTH-NORTH WEST STRIKING SOUTHERN COAST OF GUJARAT IN NEXT 24HRS

*** MAIN CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHALL TRAVEL THROUGH ADJOINING COASTS OF WEST GUJARAT TOMORROW EVENING TO NIGHT HOURS

*** GALE WINDS,HIGH SURF EXPECTED ALONG WESTERN COAST OF GUJARAT
*** HEAVY RAINS WITH STRONG WINDS SHALL HIT SOUTHERN,SOUTH-WESTERN AND WESTERN GUJARAT


*** ALL THIS TO HAPPEN ON SUNDAY,12TH JUNE 2011 NIGHT
AFTER 6PM *** FOR SOUTHERN GUJARAT

*** WEST CENTRAL GUJARAT DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS OF 13TH JUNE 2011**

*** LOW SHALL ENCOUNTER DRY AIR PRESENT IN NORTH ARABIAN SEA AND SO I DON'T FORSEE IT TURNING TO INTENSE CYCLONE AFTER CROSSING INDIA

*** OMAN IS SAFE AS OF NOW FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT WATCH CONTINUES

*** PAKISTAN SOUTHERN COASTS ALSO ARE BEING MONITORED***

********** PEOPLE ARE REQUESTED NOT TO VENTURE OUT IN BEACHES ALONG SOUTHERN GUJARAT,WESTERN GUJARAT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON TILL MONDAY AFTERNOON******

****** FISHERMAN ARE REQUESTED NOT TO VENTURE OUT IN THE SEAS
******* REFER METD WEATHER WARNING MAP

CHECK METD WEATHER ALERT MAP ALREADY POSTED AND FOLLOW @
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