Some major indifferences amongst many forecasters about what this winter has in store for us at present.
The 2010/11 UK winter mean temperature (December, January, February) was -1.3c below average, with widespread heavy snowfall throughout November and December across many parts of the UK, as I originally forecast. Although my winter forecast also held true in terms of a below average winter as a whole for temperature, February actually saw a return to much milder conditions, that recorded a mean Central England Temperature (CET) anomaly of +2.6c. I did state in my January update that the stage the La Niña had reached, may influence some much needed and welcomed weather, which I originally underestimated in some of my much earlier forecasts. Even though I did forecast the return of La Niña conditions for 2011/12 earlier on in the year, a key aspect that I emphasised strongly on, was that the La Niña would not be as strong this time around.
I have fairly high confidence at this stage, that we will experience a much more prolonged period of increased jet-stream blocking in comparison to last year. This will bring frequent and widespread heavy snowfalls during November to January across many parts of the UK and Ireland, with below-average temperatures for the meteorological winter of 2011/12 as a whole. Of course there will be some moderation at times with geographical variations, but the overall theme for this winter will be very cold and snowy across many parts of the UK and Ireland. This is a logical conclusion based on the parameters I consider within my forecasts, any snowfall or temperature records broken within this defined time frame (November to February) or for the winter as a whole will be posted accordingly.
Earlier forecasts that offer specific locations are based on a different set of parameters and historical data, and are intended as a general insight. As to how a weather pattern can actually unfold a few days before is somewhat different, and I certainly can't claim to have the technology or finances to monitor these short range situations, as well as other leading and well funded organisations. I can however make the best of the resources I have available to me, with the integration of the major natural factors that I have studied in depth and consider within my forecasting analysis, to offer a fairly reasonable and reliable account of the weather patterns that are likely to unfold for a defined time period (several months in advance) and just as I have done over the past few years. Further updates will therefore follow and become more location and date specific as we head into and progress through winter. Here is what I initially issued on Youtube on the 4th Feb 2011
Here is what I initially issued on 2nd September 2010 (last year)
“I am currently predicting that the UK and Northern Europe will experience at the very least a winter similar to the last, or as I expect much worse with heavy snowfall. “This is my basis on the severity of the cold for this coming winter due to the lag effect that comes with some of these processes, which will in return drastically affect the summer and winter of the UK in 2011/12.”
Result (Winter 2010/11) = Coldest December in 100 years, widespread heavy snowfall in November and December, UK winter mean temperature was -1.3c below-average.
Result (Summer 2011) = Coldest UK summer in over two decades, largely above average rainfall in many places, torrential downpours and severe flooding events.
Result (Winter 2011/12) = PENDING...
October Snowfall
I stated on the 2nd September 2011 update
“As we head towards winter, I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK. In terms of the meteorological winter, I expect December, January, and February to experience below average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfalls occurring within the time frame of November to January across many parts of the UK.”
October 2011 has seen some moderate to heavy snowfall in CERTAIN parts of the UK. The first snow of the season came in early October in upland Scotland, and although snow is certainly not unusual in these parts of the UK during October, this is why I included this within my autumn forecast/winter update. Further heavier falls of snow and drifts was also recorded later on within the month in Scotland, with the earliest snowfall in almost 50 years in Co Derry, Northern Ireland.
CAIRNGORM MOUNTAIN STAFF - OCTOBER 2011
CO DERRY, NORTHERN IRELAND - OCTOBER 2011
Meteorological winter 2011/12
December 2011
Below average temperatures and heavy snowfall is likely across many parts of the UK.
January 2012
Below average temperatures and heavy snowfall is likely across many parts of the UK
February 2012
Below average temperatures and moderate to heavy snowfall is likely across parts of the UK
James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)
ExactaWeather.com
Published: 30th October 2011 (23:27) GMTContent copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.
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