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Saturday, November 19, 2011

Anticipated Mid-December Pattern Change May Come Sooner Than Thought

The ECMWF is showing a massive trough of low pressure entering the Upper Midwest area, indicated by a minimum of heights. The GFS is also showing a similar idea, but not as substantial as this. It is very possible that, should this verify, areas may receive blizzard-like conditions in the hardest hit areas. However, since this is 10 days out, let's not get ahead of ourselves.

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-EPO will be turning positive. While that is not good for the area in question (Upper midwest), the EPO will be turning more neutral at the time period in question (Nov. 29).

-PNA will, after a VERY VERY prolonged and VERY VERY strong negative spell, be turning possibly positive. Should this happen, it would be very good news for the winter weather lovers in the East. Signs of this occurring are present in the above ECMWF image, as a ridge sets up in the West with a trough in the East- a major signal of a +PNA.

-NAO will be variating between positive and negative in this time frame. At this point, forecasts indicate that the NAO may be heading into weak negative territory, which wouldn't be of much help to the US for this system.

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