METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER
The "So called Low Pressure 95B" is now INVEST 95B. Invest is a term used by NHC,JTWC for a system which is being monitored for Troipcal Cyclone Developments!
As was mentioned in my last post, The 95B had full signs of strengthening again in Bay given the warmer SST,movement away from wind shear and moist air mass!
In the newly arriving datas from CIMSS and GFS Cyclone prediction models and the satellite images, the system has organized both in symmetry and pressure wise and looks like a Classic Tropical Depression to me with surface winds enough to be marked in a Tropical Depression. However no confirmation yet.
JTWC has also upgraded their alert status and has mentioned a FAIR chance of Tropical Cyclone from this system and are monitoring it for a Cyclone
Forecast
As on today morning, INVEST is located very close to Digha ( EAST OF DIGHA in West Bengal and south of Kakdwip in West Bengal)
The air pressure at minimum is near to 1000mb as of 0530hrs,IST
Maximum surface winds as per JTWC are 20-25kt near to 46Km/hr
Heading-NE
The 0400hrs satellite imagery in infrared channel is depicting strong Central Dense Overcast(CDO) over the LLC or low level cyclonic circulation
The infrared image also showing some weak rainbands towards the SW of Low
The Water vapor channel image is showing that LLC has moved under the High Pressure ridge
The computer models are indicating that the Wind shears (Horizontal) will be very less on 8th Oct 2010 around this low pressure. Also a Low Convergence will build in the vicinity of this low as it surges NW.
THE BEST FEATURE IS THE COASTAL SST WHICH IS GREATER THAN 31C!
This is a very good feature for a system like this having a good divergent flow aloft to release latent hear.
UPPER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVOURABLE WITH STRONG CONVECTION HAPPENING AND CLOUD TOPS ALREADY -70C
(RIGHT- CIMSS PLOT SHOWING THE SST NEAR TO 31C OFFSHORE WEST BENGAL. THE I IN RED IS THE INVEST AREA AND THE CIRCULAR LINES ARE THE WIND SHEAR
NOTICE THE WIND SHEAR IS RELAXED NEAR "I")
METD WEATHER FORECAST-
I W'D NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE COMES A CONFIRMATION ABOUT THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
IT WILL INTENSIFY BEFORE STRIKING BANGLADESH AND SEVEN SISTER STATES OF INDIA AND WEST BENGAL ALSO
( I THINK IN THE NEWLY ARRIVING DATAS WE WILL SEE THE LOW STRENGTHENING)
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHANCE- I THINK ITS LITTLE LATE FOR THIS LOW TO BECOME A TC. MUCH OF ITS PORTION IS ALREADY OVER LAND AND WILL BE CUT OFF SOON FROM WATER TEMP
CONSIDERING ALL
I UPGRADE THE ALERT TO MARK 5 ALERT AND A PDS FOR
WEST BENGAL EASTERN PORTION,BANGLADESH,7 SISTER NE STATES OF INDIA
ALERT WILL EXPIRE 12HRS,9TH OCT 2010
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