Tropical Cyclone JAL to intensify more!

IMAGES-

1] THE METD WEATHER ALERT MAP OF INDIA

2] IMAGE (IR-NHC) OF CYCLONE JAL IN THE BAY OF BENGAL

METD WEATHER

AKSHAY DEORAS

Severe Weather Forecaster

Concerning- Brief intensification expected of existing tropical cyclone "Jal"

Tropical Cyclone Jal in the bay of bengal currently (00z,UTC,5th Nov 2010) is at 9.3N and 88.6E with current wind speed ( max sustained) of 45kt about 750km East of Trincomalee( Sri Lanka),950km of East-South east of Chennai and 1100km Southeast of Vishakhapatanam as on 1100hrs IST

As of now, situated in a very very favorable conditions which includes a 29C Sea Surface Temp, supportive low level convergence, nice upper level divergence over 20kt ahead and nearly relaxed Vertical wind shear, Cyclone Jal is expected to intensify more in next 24hrs due to the blend of Warmer SST 30C in its path and developing low level convergence.

The recent satellite imagery is showing that intense convection has already organized into a well defined Low level circulation with the outer rain bands forming around the central intensity.

A set 20kt Vertical Wind shear around NW of the center has affected convection and symmetry of the setup with the rest core remaining symmetric and warm cored.

Forecast-

Tropical Cyclone Jal will intensify to atleast a Cat.1 cyclone in next 48hrs before making a landfall on 7th Nov 2010,Sunday BETWEEN CHENNAI,TAMIL NADU AND KANDUKUR,ANDHRA PRADESH( FOR PRECISION REFER METD WEATHER TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MAP POSTED AT TOP OF THE BLOG)

But natural,

Heavy rains,winds,Storm surge and GALE will happen during the landfall

Refer the METD WEATHER alert map for details

Chennai,Tamil Nadu is expected to be in threat due to this system