The GFS's latest run has put New Orleans in an unfavorable position as the model throws Nate towards the city. This is your morning TS Nate Update. Here is a GFS image of forecast surface wind speeds.
Nate is being smashed into the Gulf coast with winds possibly exceeding 40 knots. With a defined eye in this image and all the other images, it would be logical to indicate that Nate will likely become a hurricane in any situation. The only thing to watch is the track. Here's another image from the GFS with MSLP.
This image looks to be more suitable for hurricanes. The GFS shows a portion of Nate in light red, which is shown on the legend as over 64 knots of wind speed. MSLP indicates a low pressure of 992 millibars, which is a fairly good strength for a tropical storm or low end category 1 hurricane.
Here is the NHC's track, then spaghetti models.
The consensus does appear to be towards Mexico, which is where I will point to as well, but I am leaving the door open for a potential threat to Louisiana and/or the entire Gulf Coast.
Here is the NHC's track, then spaghetti models.
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