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Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Invest 96 in far southern regions of Gulf of Mexico could become a hurricane

The Gulf of Mexico may have yet another hurricane on its hands at some point later in these few weeks. The latest GFS below brings a hurricane strength system to light in the Gulf of Mexico general region, where the system currently has a 30% chance of forming.
This image is valid for 7 am on September 11. Below is the current view of the invest, and below that is the very messy models currently out for this storm.
At this point, it's best not to mind the models too much as you can see they are nowhere near a solution.
The ECMWF below, however, does show this storm eventually tracking into Florida. Keep in mind the ECMWF did well with Irene and possibly Katia's tracks, so this one may be another award for the ECMWF.

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