Northern Stream to Take Over; Watching for Plowable Snow

We are seeing indications that the northern part of the storm track (energy hitting the Northwest, sliding south and sometimes coming up north again as a Panhandle Hooker type storm. Those are the types of storms that give MAJOR snows to people.

The HPC Discussion

PREFER TO TEMPER WITH 30% ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE AMIDUNCERTAINTY AND LOWERED EXPECTATIONS. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIMITSYSTEM EJECTION OUT INTO/OUT FROM THE S-CENTRAL US NEXT WEEKEND TOA PERIOD WHEN NRN STREAM MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT SHOULDBECOME MORE DOMINANT.

We are seeing an interesting scenario unfold, where the HPC believes the cutoff low system will stop and make way for the northern stream trough development. Upper Level Lows can be very powerful, so this could get very interesting.

We are also watching a feature that has appeared on the GFS:

hour 228

At hour 228, we see a low pressure system sitting around the Texas/Oklahoma border area. We are seeing a ridge offshore the West Coast help nudge the system slowly eastward, but also a ridge offshore the east coast that may push the system north.

hour 240

At hour 240, we are seeing the system strengthen, and what appears to be some colder air move in behind the system. Both ridges offshore both coasts are still in place. At this point, we are watching the East Coast ridge to see if it will force the system north.

hour 252

At hour 252, we see the system still stronger, but now moving farther east and likely putting down some plowable snow. Considering that the freezing line is around Chicago, we could see plowable snow in Iowa, Nebraska and parts of Missouri.

hour 264

At this point the system gets even stronger and starts moving north towards Canada. Plowable snow potentials are still widespread from Illinois to West Tennessee. Accumulations could be large, but since this is long range, we don't even know if it will happen.

Considering that the northern stream will start to open up, we may see some energy transfer from the northern stream into the system if it is to develop, as this system originates from the Southwest.