Not Convinced An El Nino Will Form This Winter

What you see here is the temperature anomalies of the ENSO monitoring areas, where we look for El Ninos or La Ninas. El Ninos involve warmer temperatures, while La Ninas involve cooler temperatures. As you can see we are in a La Nina, with cool temperature anomalies present in the east and central portions of the ENSO monitoring area. We do, however, see some warmer anomalies in the western areas of the ENSO monitoring area. If this was to be more widespread and up at the surface (the top of the screen), it would be an El Nino, which favors snow and cold for the Northeast. However, right now we have the cool sea temperature anomalies spreading westward. After this development, if an El Nino is going to happen, we would see it happen around Late January, with the effects starting in February. Something that cannot be disputed is the SOI, which we covered in a morning post here.

We will have to see, but for right now I cannot see a full blown El Nino taking shape as per ENSO Temperatures, but we will have to keep up to date with the SOI as that is a whole different story.