We are seeing signs of intense stratospheric warming in the near future per the ECMWF model. Let's break down the images. The first one is the forecasted 10mb temperatures. We can see a sudden spike in atmospheric temperatures around the end of the ECMWF timeframe. The totally dashed line is the 30 year mean of 10mb temperatures. The second image is projected 30mb temperatures. In a similar fashion, we see a big increase in temperatures from where we are now.
This is only one model, but here's the thing- the stratosphere is somewhere around its tipping point. The Sudden Stratospheric Warming event we recently had has done a number on the stratosphere. As of right now, the stratosphere is cooling down, but if this big warming comes to light, we may be seeing the 'Big Warm'- when the stratosphere warms for good to accompany the season changing into winter.
Now, the Big Warm is something that is hard to predict, so don't hold me to this. However, at some point the stratosphere has to break into the winter season, and it's only a matter of time now.
What we have here is a graph projecting temperature waves into the stratosphere. Basically, when the lines are higher up, it indicates a higher amount of warm air being pushed into the stratosphere which would help warm it up. In order to get the stratosphere to warm to the warming that we need to help the pattern change, we ideally want both waves to get into the upper parts of the image. It is encouraging seeing the Wave 2 forecast move higher up on the map.
This is getting more interesting by the day, folks.
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