Record-Breaking Warmth Unlikely as Ridge Fills Gulf of Alaska

The latest GFS 500mb analogue forecast is indicating that another spell of record-breaking warmth is unlikely as a ridge of high pressure moves into the Gulf of Alaska (GOA).

This past winter, warm spells would occur with a low pressure system present in the Gulf of Alaska. That low in the GOA is a traditional signal of a warm spell forthcoming in the US.

With our most recent record-breaking warmth, there was indeed a strong low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska. However, with a ridge now poised to take over, it can be expected that temperatures much closer to average will be prevalent. I'm not saying they will be average, because I am getting some signals that they will be warmer than normal, but temperatures will be closer to average than record breaking.

-Andrew