HIGH RISK ACROSS GULF STATES! Very Very Strong Tornadoes likely

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster



Concerning- HIGH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A WIDE AREA IN GULF STATES



SPC AC 271255



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0755 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011



VALID 271300Z - 281200Z



...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR NE

MS...CENTRAL/NRN AL...NW GA...SE TN...



...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK...FROM

NRN/CENTRAL MS TO SRN AL...NW GA...MIDDLE/ERN TN...WRN SC...WRN

NC...WRN VA...AND ERN KY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST

TO THE OH VALLEY/APPALACHIANS AND NY...



--DANGEROUS TORNADO OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING INTO LATE

EVENING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION--

------ STORM PREDICTION CENTER,NORMAN



As mentioned in the previous post, a Potentially dangerous severe weather outbreak is expected today in the gulf states

METD WEATHER Synopsis-

An intense mid level negative tilted trough shall swing over the gulf states causing an active atmosphere for severe storms to develop. With the mid level jets over 100kt and the amplifying and north eastward progressing surface cyclone, the persisting th

understorms shall migrate eastwards with more linear fashion ( Squall line) later today with the cold front.

Moisture again shall not be a problem as given by the upper 70F dewpoint due to intense Low Level jets of 60kt+ winds which w'd rapidly pull moisture from gulf of mexico

As all ingredients come together with presence of MLCAPE 2000-5000J/Kg storms shall modify into severe thunderstorms in Eastern AR,Northern and Central MS,Northern Alabama,Central Alabama and Western,Central Tennessee

Storms capable of producing large hails,strong winds shall be primary threat

Presence of Strong Wind Shears for rotations, strong supercells capable of producing STRONG AND LONG TRACK TORNADOES shall strike from Wednesday morning into night hours in Northern Mississippi,Western TN,Northern Alabama and NW Georgia with the SFC low migrating Northwards into Kentucky.

Thus it shall be a major day and likely tornadoes in a wide area as a result I am not issuing any Tornado target for the day

I w'd not be surprised to see many tornado reports and long track tornadoes

Main Threat-

North Eastern MS, ( For some early period)

Western TN,

Central TN, **- STRONG TORNADOES LIKELY around Nashville

Central AL,**

Western AL,**

South Eastern Kentucky,

NW GA,

NE MS **

** - Greatest Probability of Strong Tornadoes

Western Tennessee and Northern and North Western Mississippi,North Western and Northern Alabama are requested to track the severe weather



Supercells have exploded and are in a region of Wind Shears over 500m2 s2!



This shall be some primary strong threat and even stronger than the HIGH RISK

PEOPLE IN THE AREAS ARE REQUESTED TO FOLLOW THE WEATHER UPDATES AS THIS IS AN EPIC SITUATION

HIGH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS! Dangerous tornadoes likely!

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster



Concerning- HIGH RISK of Severe Storms !

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO

TONIGHT FOR NE TX...FAR SE OK...EXTREME NW LA...AND THE SRN HALF OF

AR...

Synopsis-

The amplifying shortwave trough is expected to begin its Eastward movement from today with Jet streaks at its nose over 100kt jets at the 300mb and 60kt at 500mb is expected to bring very severe weather today/tonight in a wide area stretching from

NE Texas,Into Eastern South Eastern Oklahoma stretching into Arkansas,Northern LA,NW MS,WEST TN and the rest neighbouring states ( CENTRAL GULF STATES)

Potent strong Jet streaks and the associated developing surface cyclone in the warmsector having persistent moisture from yesterday's setup ( A major tornado outbreak in Arkansas with Emergency Declared and Long track tornadoes in Vilomina and Hot Spring) shall fire severe thunderstorms in the Steep Lapse rate,Strong Lifting and strong CAPE over 2000J/Kg around Dallas,TX after 1PM or so ( LT)



Storms developing in these areas shall modify into severe and supercells especially around North Central to North East Texas jumping in SE Oklahoma and SW- Central AR

The Ground HEL ( 0-1km) indicate favoring supercells with large and long track tornadoes in the NE Texas and SW Arkansas

HOWEVER, The Hodograph indicatelow level curvatures after evening which might indicate that Tornadoes would be likely after evening period.



There shall be some weakening in the shears for afternoon period however threat for strongovernight tornadoes shall build up as the shears start organizing!



However TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED in SE Oklahoma at afternoon period

Considering all the parameters, it looks like the greatest probability of tornado lies from Dallas to Little Rock,AR



My tornado targets -

1] East of Paris,TX2] Around TEXARKANA

3] Around Camden,AR



Tornadoes then shall migrate northwards



Keep following

spc.noaa.gov for more details





Wednesday-

The shortwave trough shall surge through southern plains, with the 60kt LLJ,STRONG CAPE and favorable conditions, I shall not be surprised if Moderate Risk turns to High Risk



VALID 271200Z - 281200Z



...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF

KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL

MISSISSIPPI...THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST

GEORGIA... ON WEDNESDAY(27th Apr 2011)