HIGH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS! Dangerous tornadoes likely!

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster



Concerning- HIGH RISK of Severe Storms !

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO

TONIGHT FOR NE TX...FAR SE OK...EXTREME NW LA...AND THE SRN HALF OF

AR...

Synopsis-

The amplifying shortwave trough is expected to begin its Eastward movement from today with Jet streaks at its nose over 100kt jets at the 300mb and 60kt at 500mb is expected to bring very severe weather today/tonight in a wide area stretching from

NE Texas,Into Eastern South Eastern Oklahoma stretching into Arkansas,Northern LA,NW MS,WEST TN and the rest neighbouring states ( CENTRAL GULF STATES)

Potent strong Jet streaks and the associated developing surface cyclone in the warmsector having persistent moisture from yesterday's setup ( A major tornado outbreak in Arkansas with Emergency Declared and Long track tornadoes in Vilomina and Hot Spring) shall fire severe thunderstorms in the Steep Lapse rate,Strong Lifting and strong CAPE over 2000J/Kg around Dallas,TX after 1PM or so ( LT)



Storms developing in these areas shall modify into severe and supercells especially around North Central to North East Texas jumping in SE Oklahoma and SW- Central AR

The Ground HEL ( 0-1km) indicate favoring supercells with large and long track tornadoes in the NE Texas and SW Arkansas

HOWEVER, The Hodograph indicatelow level curvatures after evening which might indicate that Tornadoes would be likely after evening period.



There shall be some weakening in the shears for afternoon period however threat for strongovernight tornadoes shall build up as the shears start organizing!



However TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED in SE Oklahoma at afternoon period

Considering all the parameters, it looks like the greatest probability of tornado lies from Dallas to Little Rock,AR



My tornado targets -

1] East of Paris,TX2] Around TEXARKANA

3] Around Camden,AR



Tornadoes then shall migrate northwards



Keep following

spc.noaa.gov for more details





Wednesday-

The shortwave trough shall surge through southern plains, with the 60kt LLJ,STRONG CAPE and favorable conditions, I shall not be surprised if Moderate Risk turns to High Risk



VALID 271200Z - 281200Z



...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF

KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL

MISSISSIPPI...THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST

GEORGIA... ON WEDNESDAY(27th Apr 2011)