REFERENCE MAP TO DESCRIBE THREAT LEVEL AS MENTIONED BELOWMETD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
A round of severe weather can be expected in the Central India region from Thu-Fri ( 21 and 22nd Apr 2011)
For Thursday,21st Apr 2011
Severe storms are expected to fire at the nose of the southern extent of jet stream aloft as the surface low continues to intensify in the region with the MSLP as per Thai Meteorological Dept of 1002mb! As the surface low deepens, it shall pull moisture from the Southern Region and South Western Region along with the Low Level Jets of 24-32kt thus providing the moisture in the persistent unstable atmosphere
The GFS 12z runs indicates upto 1000J/Kg CAPE present over Central India while the same timed Skew T indicate upto 500J/Kg joules in AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT
With enough instability to support convection, and INSANE LIFTING ( LIFTED INDEX UPTO -5!!), Severe thunderstorms capable of producing Heavy Rains,Lightning,Strong Winds,Sudden drop of temperature shall be very likely
The main concern is for the following areas
Nagpur and the 100km circle radius as shown on Doppler Images
Areas around Gondia where strong CAPE is present
Isolated areas NE of Seoni in Madhya Pradesh
West of Amravati
** All areas in 200km radius of Nagpur as the center
Threat-
Threat is for Rains,Strong Winds,Hails and strong lightning during late evening into night
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For Friday- 22nd Apr 2011
As more moisture is dumped on Friday, with comparitively less instability
threat shall continue for Heavy Rains
These areas include -
Nagpur,Central and Southern Madhya Pradesh and other areas 200km radius of Nagpur ( Excluding the areas beyond 50km west of Nagpur)
** Flash Flooding also possible in areas like Southern MP,Vidarbha many areas in the 100km circle of Nagpur
Preparation -
Keep yourselves dry using raincoats and umbrellas all the time.
Stick to METD WEATHER forecasts @ facebook.com/deorasakshay
Don't stand under tree during lightning
METD WEATHER ALERT_
Areas in the 150km zone from Nagpur as center are specially alerted for chance of strong thunderstorm on Thursday followed by rains on Friday
MARK 5 ALERT in effect till 0600hrs,Sat
Additional rainfall also shall hit Chattisgarh,Western Orissa during this period
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