METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
Concerning- High Risk of Severe Storms across Vidarbha on Saturday ( 16th Apr 2011)
Persisting High-Low pressure collaboration of air pressure in Arabian Sea and Mainland of Central India is already pushing April to ITS LIMITS !
With a Hailstorm on 9th Apr 2011, Strong Thunderstorm today in Nagpur ( METD WEATHER captures around 7 lightning bolts with tremendous lightning flash so powerful to make the night appear as day! )
( Video available by Monday)
Forecast-
Severe weather event is expected to unfurl with some of the best conditions together at place I have ever seen in my life for India!
The moist parcel of air shall be lifted robustly with steep lapse rate by afternoon when convection temperature reaches in Vidarbha area. The Lifted Index ( LI) are over -3 indicating presence of a Robust Lift having over 338K Potential Energy release ( Theta E)
Due to synoptic lifting of parcel of air and presence of moist air for saturation, Convection shall be assisted by presence of a Strong Day time lifting adding to the CAPE of over 432J on surface and equivalent in Unstable layers.
The 12z,GFS guidance confirms that lower layers of atmosphere shall be unstable with the Cloud Condensation Level ( CCL) at around 720mb ( 9000FT) where as the forecasted Equilibrium Level is around 35,000 ft ( Cloud Tops) in Uncapped environment.
K= 37
TT= 48
PW ( cm) = 3.13
This means that the towering CB shall have rapid intensification shortly after convection fires in the afternoon period
** THE STORMS SHALL QUICKLY MODIFY INTO DANGEROUS CB CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAILS, RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
** SPECIAL THREAT FOR CLOUD TO CLOUD OR CLOUD- GROUND LIGHTNING
WITH RAPID LIGHTNING INTERVAL **
** To which area there is threat?
The primary concern seems to be areas in 100 km circle from Nagpur where there are best convective potentials.
** Areas around Chandrapur
Threat is limited to areas around Amravati, Chinwada and all
** How to prepare for it?
The best way to face Saturday setup is by keeping a raincoat/umbrella throughout the day. Though it w'd be CLEAR and warm in morning- afternoon, after convection happens weather w'd change drastically.
Also, as soon as an alert is issued on facebook.com/deorasakshay or you see a lightning bolt, switch off and unplug electric devices
No comments:
Post a Comment