Severe Storms in Southern US on Monday

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

"...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN

   TN...MS...FAR SE AR...NW AL AND A SMALL PART OF SW KY...

.THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO    MID-MS VALLEY...SRN PLAINS...TN VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND CNTRL TO SRN    APPALACHIAN MTNS...  "
Storm Prediction Center,
Norman,OK

The ongoing thunderstorms will advance eastwards trailing behind the cold front into the Southern plains .

The Positive tilted trough right now right now in Rockies will eject into the plains early morning on Monday and will bring a deal of severe weather.

The advancing cold front with the low level jets peaking 70kt! shall rapidly pull moisture from the gulf of mexico into the plains leading to dewpoint upto 70F for morning period in Arkansas,Louisiana.

Storms are expected to fire in the morning period as the cap breaks away quickly. Convection shall trigger in Eastern OK,Louisiana,AR morning period in the feeble destabilized atmosphere of MLCAPE upto 1000J/Kg for the morning hours.

As day time ( MORNING) heat contributes in instability with steep lapse rates later afternoon, storms will go severe in the squall line contributing for a threat of strong winds,hails prominently towards Eastern AR,LA.

Effect Wind shears shall be in place during the late morning to afternoon period across Mississippi and prominently in the Western TN valley where there is a robust verring wind profile in the lower atmosphere/Hel ( 0-1km), Discrete supercells likely w'd form with the main outflow boundary of the squall line capable of producing tornadoes.

Moisture in the TN state remains a question in the warm sector including parts of MS in early morning period to early afternoon but the evolution of the Mid level trough as neutral tilt and the arrangement of the LLJ, Rapid moisture incursion just at afternoon shall help convection particularly across Cent,West TN and Cent to NRN MS

The Lifted Index however w'd be strong in the coastal parts of LA,MS,AL as the CAPE reaches to above 2000J/Kg and higher 70F dewpoint. However lack of Shears will limit tornado probability there.

The main deal for now on Monday morning period looks to be SE ARKANSAS - SOMEWHERE AROUND GREENVILLE,MS

THE MAIN TARGET SHIFTS FOR AFTERNOON IN Mississippi

Tupelo,MS to Jackson TN

SPC UPGRADES A 5% TORNADO RISK HERE AND THE MODERATE RISK AREA ALSO LIES HERE

** Increased threat likely during evening hours for Northern Alabama areas and Central to Eastern TN when the LLJ 70kt peaks up!

** Threat for Isolated tornado also likely in the coastal MS,AL,

Rest-

Storms along the cold front to impact from Ohio to MS valley advancing East