Severe Weather Forecaster
The tropical wave from South-China sea carrying the Tropical Depression will be arriving in the Bay of Bengal today with expected air pressure around 1000-1002mb! The low is centered at Krabi province of Thailand at 8N 98.9E
As seen from morning satellite imagery, intense convection is firing at North,North East side of the low pressure and partial at the west side. In the periphery of 20-30kt wind shear convection is relatively poor at southern side. Amidst a very favorable low level convergence and nice upper level divergence, stron
g convection will continue to fire/organize around the low pressure as the tropical depression will intensify to a deep depression in next 24-48hrs.
(RIGHT- THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAP SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. )
Given the 28-29C Sea Surface Temp and excellent moisture and expected little interference from the wind shears, I expect that this tropical depression will develop into a deep depression and might convert to a Tropical Storm as the wind shear tendancy in its path is decreasing type!
Right now, the storm is moving west at around 8kt that is 14.81 km/hr and maximum winds of 50km/hr. It is indeed a slow storm and will make a landfall on 7th Oct 2010 at coastal Andhra Pradesh. For more details- See the map on front page of METD WEATHER
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER UPDATE
IN AN UPDATE MADE TODAY, JTWC HAS GIVEN A FAIR CHANCE OF THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENING INTO A CYCLONE. METD WEATHER ESTIMATES A TROPICAL STORM OUT OF IT.