The ECMWF Ensembles are picking up on the long-awaited pattern change by displaying the typical PNA index in its positive phase, as shown below as well in 500mb heights.
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| Typical Positive PNA 500mb heights in January. |
A positive PNA features a trough in the East and a ridge in the West. Putting that in simple terms, a positive PNA means many low pressure system occurrences in the East and many high pressure system occurrences in the West. As the stratosphere warms, it is only fitting that the PNA, AO and NAO (all 'essential' for cold air and snow for the East) will be turning into much more favorable phases. January could be, and likely will be if everything goes right, THE month for this winter. February could be snowy as well, but January will really start cranking the snow machine.
Side note: For those seeing my exaggerated feelings on this winter or this storm, I am a snow lover, and, no matter how hard I try to avoid sending those feelings on here, they do get on here. Winter is typically a turbulent time for my emotions and patience with storms and winter overall, so y apologies in advance if I start to go overboard.
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