Part 2, Dates of 2010 Indian Monsoon season

METD WEATHER,
Akshay Deoras,
Extreme Weather Forecaster,

The 2010 Indian Monsoon season seems to be AFFECTED by the Tropical Cyclone Laila as per METD WEATHER. Laila's unusual path inwards AP and again surging in Bay of Bengal has done two things. By this path, Laila didn't consume all the moisture in BOB but has partially consumed the moisture and by the progress Eastwards, Moisture at low levels to mid levels will drag East of BOB due to low pressure movement. As the low pressure is exiting in the BOB, the surface pressure over Mainland of INDIA ARE BECOMING DOMINANT AND WILL PULL THE MOISTURE FROM SOUTH-WESTERN TIP OF INDIA.
MEANWHILE, THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA 1008mb IS SETTING UP TO THE VERY SOUTH OF KERALA WHICH IS GOING TO SUPPLY GOOD MOISTURE TOWARDS LOW PRESSURE AREA.
THE JETS AT UPPER LEVELS HAVE A VERY GOOD EASTERLY FLOW TRANSPORTING MOIST AIR INWARDS.

THE GFS,00Z MODELS FOR 850MB WINDS, ARE IMPRESSIVE AND SHOWING THAT THE MOISTURE IS BUILDING IN ARABIAN SEA AND ALSO OVER KERALA. THE MOISTURE PLOT FOR ARABIAN SEA IN NEXT WEEKS IS GETTING BETTER AND BETTER AND THE LLJ ARE SHIFTING TO SOUTH INDIA.
BASED ON THE PRESSURE AND MOISTURE MODELS, IT IS CLEAR THAT LAILA HAS AFFECTED THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN BOTH ARABIAN SEA AND BOB WHICH IS GOING TO DELAY THE START OF 2010 MONSOON SEASON. MOSTLY AFTER THE CYCLONE EXITS OR BECOMES WEAK, IT TAKES ABOUT 2 WEEKS OR MORE FOR MONSOON TO GET ACTIVATED THE CONVECTION .

II... 2010 CYCLONE SEASON AND ITS EFFECTS ON MONSOON
AS HAD MENTIONED EARLIER, THIS YEAR CYCLONES ARE GOING TO BE INSANE AS ITS A FALL YEAR FOR THE EL-NINO EVENT 2009-10. WARM WATERS SHIFT NOW WILL STOP TOWARDS COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA LEADING TO MUCH HIGH SST IN THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN WHICH CAN STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONES AND MAKE THEM INSANE. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION IS ANOMALY RAINFALL TRACK WHICH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM EAST GIVES US ROUGH IDEA FOR INTENSITY OF CYCLONES. HIGH MJO INDEX CAN RESULT STRONG CONVECTION TURNING TO CYCLONES IF REST CONDITIONS MEET. SO FAR MJO HAS BEEN GOOD AND POSITIVE BUT IN MAY HAS
TURNED NEGATIVE. THIS CAN MEAN THAT THERE WILL BE NO CYCLONES TILL MID OR LATE JUNE IF MJO PROVES RIGHT. ITS FAVOURABLE FOR MONSOON BUILDING AND ADVANCING. ALSO, A NEGATIVE INDEX IS GOING WITH THE IDO
ITS SIMILAR TO EL~NINO AND LA~ NINA BUT OCCURING WITHIN INDIAN OCEAN. THIS PLOT IS NEGATIVE, IT MEANS THAT COOL WATER IS PRESENT IN WEST INDIAN OCEAN AS COMPARED TO EAST INDIAN OCEAN NEAR INDONESIA. A NEGATIVE PHASE STILL IN MAY CAN ADD TO LESS RAINS AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS YEARS

BASED ON ALL PLOTS,
METD WEATHER THINKS THAT IF TROPICAL CYCLONES DON'T HOLD THAT GOOD IN MAY END TILL JUNE MID, A FAVOURABLE MONSOON WILL BUILD UP AND ADVANCE. HOWEVER IF ANY CYCLONE RE-STRIKES IN JUNE LATE, A STRONG DEFICIANCY WILL BE SEEN IN JULY.

METD WEATHER TARGETS-----

WITH 98% SUCCESS IN 2009 MONSOON FORECAST, METD WEATHER THINKS FOLL..

** MONSOON IN 2010 WILL BE 68-78% GOOD OUT OF 100%.
** MONSOON ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ACTIVE IN JULY END AND AUGUST IN MOST PARTS OF COUNTRY INCLUDING NAGPUR,MAHARASHTRA.

IF CYCLONES HOLD GOOD IN LATER JUNE, A STRONG DEFICIANT MONSOON IN JULY MONTH WILL BE SEEN IN INDIA

DATES***************

BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM NCEP MODELS, MJO INDEX,IDO INDEX,SST TEMP AND ALL LEVEL PLOTS

MONSOON TO HIT KERELA-

BETWEEN 5TH JUNE TO 10TH JUNE. MORE LIKELY BY 7TH JUNE 2010
REMAINING DATES CAN BE CALCULATED FROM GENERAL TREND OF ADVANCEMENT

MONSOON TO HIT NAGPUR,MAHARASHTRA
24-30TH JUNE 2010 AND MORE ACCURATE DAY CAN BE 26TH JUNE

THE INWARD PROPOGATION ON MONSOON WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CYCLONES AND DEPRESSIONS IN BOB AND ARABIAN.

DATES FOR MAHARASHTRA ARE LIKELY TO BE CHANGED AND I WILL UPDATE THEM DAILY STARTING FROM 10TH JUNE 2010 LIKE LAST YEAR,2009


FOR MORE ASSISTANCE CONTACT

AKSHAY DEORAS
EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTER AND METD WEATHER OWNER
66,S.E.Rly Colony,Pratap Nagar,
Nagpur-22
Maharashtra,India

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