TROPICAL CYCLONE 1B FORMS IN BAY OF BENGAL

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras

Extreme Weather Forecaster,

Concerning- Tropical cyclone in Bay of Bengal

The 2010 North Indian ocean cyclone season has opened with a bang. Since the last week some convection happening in the SE bay of Bengal which initially was favoured of development of Low level circulation near Andaman Nicobar Islands. The convection in strong Sea Surface Temp. with low to moderate vertical shear, strong upward vorticity, situated in a divergent wind flow resulting to easy outflow, also limited horizontal wind across the region, has resulted this system to intensify to the first cyclone of this year in Bay of Bengal

As per the datas from NCEP, the following track of cyclone is possible

DATE/TIME(UTC)	POSITION (LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E)	SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH)
17-05-2010/1200	11.0/88.0	55-65 GUSTING TO 75
17-05-2010/1800	11.5/87.5	55-65 GUSTING TO 75
18-05-2010/0000	12.0/87.0	65-75 GUSTING TO 85
18-05-2010/0600	12.5/86.5	65-75 GUSTING TO 85
18-05-2010/1200	13.0/86.0	75-85 GUSTING TO 95
19-05-2010/0000	14.0/85.0	75-85 GUSTING TO 95
19-05-2010/1200	15.0/84.0	85-95 GUSTING TO 105
20-05-2010/0000	16.0/83.0	95-105 GUSTING TO 115
20-05-.2009/1200	17.0/82.0	95-105 GUSTING TO 115

THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS APX. 100KM EAST OF CHENNAI 12PM ON 19TH MAY AND WILL LIKELY DAMAGE INSIDE IN TAMIL NADU AND ANDHRA PRADESH AND CAUSE HIGH SURFS AND ROUGH SEAS SO FISHERMAN ARE REQUESTED NOT TO VENTURE OUT IN SEA. THIS WILL THEN MOVE AND MAKE A LANDFALL PARTIAL ABOUT 80KM EAST OF KALIPATANAM. AT 1800HRS ON 20TH MAY AND THEN ON 21ST MAY AT 1800HRS,IT WILL MAKE A LANDFALL AT VISHAKHAPATANAM WITH A VERY STRONG 63KT+ GUSTS AND AS CATEGORY 1 CYCLONE, THE MAXIMUM

ON 22ND MAY IT WILL MOVE TO ORISSA AT RATANPUR,JAMBU IN ORISSA GUSTING TO 81MPH WINDS.

THE PRESENT ALERT IS FOR ROUGH SEAS IN ANDHRA PRADESH AND TAMIL NADU ON 19TH MAY. THE ALERT IS VISHAKHAPATANAM FOR A LANDFALL ON 21ST MAY 2010