Severe Weather possible in Northern USA

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Extreme Weather Forecaster

A potentially severe weather will pop on Wednesday at the nose of the trough digging in from the west.. With the 300mb winds over 100kt in vicinity and 70kt in the 500mb levels, the South-Westerly flow will help severe weather to build in... With the 40-50kt LLJ, a lot of moisture will be pulled in in parts of Northern IOWA, Western Wisconsin and South-Eastern Minnesota leading to ample moisture at SFC and dewpoint upto 80F. Provided with a Weak CAP and strong CAPE 3000-5000J/Kg, the trough will get into a negative tilt and will fire severe thunderstorms in IOWA,WISCONSIN,and some parts of Minnesota.. With an excellent wind shear field in lower levels, rotations with mesocyclones in supercells is possible in the risk area. The PW precipitable value is indicating values upto 2" indicating Classic HP,high precipitation supercells possible....

An approaching cold and warm front from the west will be present over the risk area by 18z,wednesday and the tripoint lies just at the Minnesota and Wisconsin border by late evening to night hours. Severe storms will explode in afternoon to late evening hours as strong CAP will be inplace which will get less due to day time heating

I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF SPC UPGRADES THE SITUATION FROM SLIGHT TO MODERATE...

DAMAGING HAILS WITH AT LEAST HALF DOZEN TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN THE RISK AREA

My target area is Minneapolis 

--
Akshay Deoras,
akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
metdweather.blogspot.com
P- 94223-13055