TS Chanthu less likely to become a Cat.1.LANDFALL ON THURSDAY

ABOVE- THE YELLOW CIRCLE AROUND CHANTHU IS THE UPPER AIR DIVERGENCE PLOT AND THE BLUE CIRCLE IS THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.. THE PATH AS PER GFS IS SHOWN ABOVE

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Extreme Weather Forecaster

** TROPICAL STORM CHANTHU WILL ORGANIZE A LITTLE BUT WILL NOT BECOME A CAT. 1 IN NEXT 12HRS

** CHANTHU HAS NO THREAT TO HONG KONG CITY

** CHANTHU WILL MAKE A LANDFALL ON THURSDAY EVENING TO NIGHT HOURS(LT) AT ZHANJIANG,CHINA WHICH IS IN BETWEEN YULIN AND HAIKOU

** EXPECTED LANDFALL SPEED WILL BE 55KT,101KM/HR

** TIMINGS OF LANDFALL WILL BE POSTED ON THURSDAY POSTS

In the previous post, I had mentioned that Chanthu was more likely to become a Cat. 1 Typhoon on Thu morning but from the present atmospheric conditions, I can say that its less likely to become a Cat. 1

A surprising low shear had developed near the Center of Tropical storm of 10kt which caused it to get slightly unorganized and as its now very close to landfall perhaps it can't regain the lost distance and time

Forecasts as per 15Z UTC,21st July FOR MODELS

Chanthu lies at 19.2N,112.4E with winds recorded of 55kt. No wind shear has developed around it to weaken it. (AS PER 12Z)

5kt Low level convergence exists near the center of tropical storm

5Kt upper air divergence persists near the center of the storm

So CHANTHU will organize a little to reach winds upto 60kt

As per ADT models,17Z Chanthu had 985.3mb central pressure

AS per AMSU at 10z , Chanthu had pressure of 983mb and wind of 64kt

12HR FORECAST

CHANTHU WILL ORGANIZE IN SMALL SCALE AND CAN REACH WINDS UPTO 60KT

CHANTHU IS HEADING TO LANDFALL