Typhoon Conson strengthens to Cat.1 advances to Vietnam

above- The forecast models via CIMSS for typhoon Conson

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras

** TYPHOON CONSON STRENGTHENS TO CAT.1

** LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY EVENING TO NIGHT HOURS

** METD WEATHER,MARK 5 ALERT FOR VIETNAM COAST

** LANDFALL EXPECTED WITH CAT.1 BETWEEN THAI HOI AND NAMH DINH BY LATE EVENING TO NIGHT HOURS

The well marked low pressure which turned to a tropical storm on July 11th and made a deadly landfall at quezon provience in Philippines and killed 23 people and many missing has now organised to a Cat.1 cyclone.

With the wind speed to a 75kt,gusts to 90kt. this typhoon organised as it moved in warmer waters and away from the 20kt wind shear late night yesterday. Typhoon right now is 16.9N,110.9E and has moved 270deg at 90kt.

Typhoon is heading towards Vietnam near the Hanoi coast.... Its still much far away..

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The current position of Typhoon is a position where it can easily maintain the strength.Its in a pool of warm sea water with no significant wind shear at place and 10kt divergent winds aloft

a 30kt, wind shear lies ahead at 13.7N,111.5E where conson will reach in next 15hrs, But the wind shear line doesn't seem to affect the intensity as its much in a limited area unlike the 20kt previous circular wind shear which had kept conson to a Tropical storm cat.

Also, a big pool of warmer water will be present ahead which will intensify consoon more but will be a Cat.1 only

As per forecast,80kt winds are expected in conson in next 24hrs.

With no wind shear and convergence ahead, Conson will maintain the strength

Conson will make a landfall at Saturday evening to night hours

Landfall is expected to be between Thai hoi and Nam Dinh coast..

Expected category for the landfall will be CAT.1 as I believe the strength will continue due to no obstruction till the landfall