Will a new cyclone develop in Arabian sea in early Oct 2010

ABOVE- FIRST IMAGE IS OF THE 144HR PRECIPITATION SHOWING WEAK RAINBANDS

SECOND IMAGE IS SHOWING 1004MB SLP

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

A weakly organised convection area is likely moving Westwards at the Southern side of India. Cloud top temperatures of -40C have been reported in this area extending 10-15N,65-70E as on 0200UTC,27th Sept 2010.

GFS model runs of 12z,26th Sept 2010 are indicating that this featured unorganized convection will organize around 30th Sept-1st Oct.

Cyclogenesis will take place by early october as I find a LLC( Low level cyclonic circulation) developing with a low surface pressure building creating organization of the system around the low pressure. The 144hr GFS showing the air pressure at Sea level to be 1004mb and having a tendency to organize more.

However the 12z and 18z weather models are not very impressive from the point of view of formation of a Tropical Depression and then a Tropical cyclone. The 700mb V.vorticity and surface precipitation is showing an unorganized structure having a wedge West-east extent.

On this basis, I think that Tropical depression might develop from this low pressure (if the new runs show this low pressure's movement towards the North-West which is the usual Cyclone movement in arabian sea as it heads towards Oman sometimes like Very severe cyclone Phet

Stay tuned for updates as the new weather model runs will be exciting!