Winter finally in RANGE for Central India!!!

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Concerning- Possible ONSET of Winter 2010 in Central India esp Nagpur

Most of this month ( NOV) had minimum temperature above 20C except the very first day when minimum temperature was 16C in Nagpur.

The reason for such a warm winter was the moisture that was deposited by a Bay low which had swept across central India few days back. Usually, low pressure area sweeps away towards the west carrying away moisture after 3-4 days. This low swept away very quickly but a HP( High Pressure region) has been in the state of formation and development since last 2 weeks resulting in less displacement of moisture!

As much of the air in Central India was containing moisture and the low winds were not directed NORTH-SOUTH( Winds are from North to South after North-East Monsoon season gets over permitting winter), cloudy days were there in the city.

Cooling has already begun in the North India with almost daily snowfall activity at Srinagar-Leh highway leading to closure of NH 1D from Nov 26,Friday till 6 months!!! Minimum temperatures at North India non hilly region is around 13-10C...

As moisture containing air was present in Central India with non directed winds, cool air was unable to penetrate in Central India which was the cause of WARM NOVEMBER

CURRENT FORECAST-

The forecast models are finally indicating the withdrawal of the deposited moisture over Central India from Wednesday-Thursday onwards. The 850mb winds also will be having a Northerly,Northwesterly flow and shall permit temperatures to drop in Central India including Madhya Pradesh,Chattisgarh western,Central and Northern Maharashtra,Nagpur also

For Western coasts and Pune city, moisture is still holding good and cooling shall begin by 10dec or so. Occasional cool days are very likely in Pune when temperature can drop to 15C when previous night min was around 19C due to strong cool mountain influenced winds.

Nagpur Temperature forecast

I must admit that people in Nagpur NOW must wash their winter clothes and keep in open to dry them!

EXPECTED MIN TEMPERATURE IN NAGPUR

Tuesday- 18C

1/12- 17C

2/12- 17C

3/12- 16C

4/12- 16C

5/12- 15C

** FORECAST SUBJECTED TO MOISTURE WITHDRAWAL

BELOW IS THE UPDATED 2010 WINTER FORECAST FOR INDIA PREPARED BY METD WEATHER

FIRST IMAGE-

MAP PREPARED BY METD WEATHER DEPICTING EXPECTED AIR TEMP ANOMALY IN INDIA SHOWING VERY COOL CONDITIONS IN MAHARASHTRA ESP AND WARMER CONDITIONS IN JAMMU AND KASHMIR

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

METD Weather's 2010

Winter Outlook of India is out!

METD WEATHER forecasts for a cooler than normal winter in most of the areas in India.

Reasons-

1] Due to La Nina ( Phenomena when the Sea surface temp in Central Pacific cool down) the jet streams are expected to intensify more across the world

2] Blocking High Pressure over Tibet

3] More southward flow of Jet streams than normal.

1] LA NINA

The Second phase of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is La Nina. La Niña refers

to a period when the Sea Surface Temp in Equatorial pacific cool down by 3-5C as the east ward moving oceanic waves from South America bring more colder water towards equatorial pacific.

La Nina is followed by El Nino which concluded in Mid 2010. La Nina is now in a near full swing.

La Nina has opposite consequence as that of El Nino

La Nina also strengthens the Jet streams.

2] Blocking high pressure over Tibet

As cooler temperature builds in Tibet, a high pressure area builds over Northern India and also in Tibet, Right now the air pressure is as high as 1040mb. The Jet streams flowing from west to east are blocked by this air pressure so the jet stream splits into two branches or mostly jet stream digs South instead of North

As the high pressure blocks the jet stream, jet stream digs southwards in India covering areas of Punjab,Haryana,Delhi,Madhya Pradesh,Maharashtra and much of the North-Central India.

The Jet rarely flows over Jammu and Kashmir ( except for Western Disturbance).

So more cool air digs southwards than normal during La Nina.

The intensity of the high pressure over Tibet and North India is related to the La Nina phenomena.

(IMAGE AT LEFT- TEMP IMPACTS FROM LA NINA SHOWING COOL CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF INDIA EXCEPT J&K.COLD EPISODES MEANS THIS PERIOD)

3] As mentioned above,

This year more cool air is going to flow over Central and North Central India. This meansCENTRAL INDIA,NORTH-CENTRAL INDIA(EXCEPT JAMMU AND KASHMIR) AND SOUTHERN INDIA WILL HAVE COOLER THAN NORMAL WINTER

REGIONAL FORECAST

1] JAMMU AND KASHMIR-

THE STATE IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A WARMER WINTER THIS YEAR. NOTE WARMER MEANS COMPARITIVELY WARMER AND DOESN'T MEAN TEMPERATURES 10C ABOVE NORMAL! IT WILL BE AROUND (0.5+C) THAN AVERAGE

WHENEVER THERE WILL BE WESTERN DISTURBANCE, THEY WILL BE SEVERE AND I EXPECT 2-3 SEVERE SNOWFALL EVENTS IN 2010-11 EARLY PERIOD IN J&K AND HIMACHAL PRADESH

2] PUNJAB,CHANDIGARH,HARAYANA,DELHI

THESE AREAS WILL WITNESS (0.3-0.5 C) LESS THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE.

THIS FIGURE IS SMALL ITS A SIGNIFICANT FROM METEOROLOGY ASPECT.

THIS MEANS EVERYDAY THE TEMPERATURE MIGHT BE AROUND 1C LESS THAN WHAT WAS RECORDED PREVIOUS YEAR THE SAME DAY.

3] MADHYA PRADESH,MAHARASHTRA,UTTAR PRADESH,BIHAR,JHARKHAND

THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO WITNESS VERY COOLER WINTER. TEMP WILL BE LESS THAN (1C) THAN AVERAGE****

THIS MEANS RECORDED TEMPERATURE ON THIS DAY WILL BE LESS THAN

1C THAN RECORDED PREVIOUS YEAR THE SAME DAY

** THIS WILL HAPPEN DURING MOST OF THE TIME IN WINTER. SOME PERIODS MIGHT WITNESS DIFFERENT VARIATIONS ACCORDING TO WEATHER CONDITIONS.

4] SOUTHERN INDIA

SOUTHERN INDIA WILL WITNESS A COOLER AND WETTER WINTER PERIOD BELONGING TO COLD EPISODES OF LA NINA

RIGHT-

THE PREDICTED MAP BY NOAA SHOWING WET CONDITIONS IN COLD EPISODES OF LA NINA ( NOV-FEB)

Severe weather with tornadoes possible in Mississippi valley region!

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

A likely major weather outbreak is underway for Mississippi region for Monday.

A large scale upper trough having 100kt upper jets continuing to brace North-Eastwards will bring severe weather in Louisiana,Mississippi and Southern central Arkansas.

With the advancing warm front threat for strong winds is the highest in Mississippi valley and increasing 60F dewpoint and Excellent shear profiles WITH LIMITED CAPE for the development, some supercells enough to produce strong tornadoes will be likely with the warm front and triple point Tornado threat is around 10% in region from NE LA to Central and NRN MS

My tornado target remains at West Central MS

NOCTURNAL TORNADOES ARE LIKELY. PEOPLE MUST PREPARE ACCORDINGLY

Exactaweather.com - Winter 2010/11 Update

My apologies regarding the small delay everyone, but I have been rather busy of late. I am now working with exactaweather.com as one of there UK long range forecasters. Don't worry everyone I am not getting paid a penny, so I will not be changing any of my opinions.

Exacta Weather is a non profit weather organisation consisting of meteorologists from around the world, who share data and research on a voluntary basis like myself. The forecasters and planned forecasters simply have a passion for weather with a background history in the subject, and proven track records in accurate weather forecasting.

I feel this is a huge step in the right direction for me at the present time, especially as I have been largely ignored, even though I have been reporting this winter since very early this year in my blog and research papers.  I will still publish to my blog for nostalgic purposes, my main efforts and detailed forecasts will however now be with exacta weather.

As for this winter guys, the gulf stream has not improved and we are still in a minimum solar cycle. Both of these factors will have dire effects on the UK in terms of temperature reductions (solar cycle - global effects). The La Nina continues to ever strengthen and is capable of further temperature reductions (globally). This will also bring more precipitation to the UK in the form of widespread and heavy snowfalls. It is going to be as bad as I have originally forecast with very few and if any mild spells, now let's look at the accuracy of this forecast come March/April 2011.

Feel free to view my exactaweather.com UK long range forecast, or contact me through them.

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

http://www.exactaweather.com/The_Team_-_Contact_Us.html

http://www.exactaweather.com/

J.Madden (UK Weather Geek)

Arabian Low to bring heavy rains in Southern and Eastern Gujarat

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

A low pressure in Arabian Sea which has been triggered due to remnants of cyclone Jal AND PROMINENTLY 90B INVEST few weeks back is on the final stage now. As of Evening of Saturday(20 Nov 2010), the low has 1006mb air pressure. The water vapor imagery of today evening of the low area is showing ample moisture at the core with cloud top temperature around -50C.
The low level convergence has weakened now and is around 5kt which is poor with upper conditions continuing favorable with 20kt Upper air divergence. The 850mb vorticity too shows good cyclonic spin at lower atmosphere with embedded 500mb negative vorticity are developing weak low level circulation (LLC)

The GFS cyclone models indicating some strengthening of the low may happen on Sunday as the low is forecasted to deepen to 1000mb.

METD WEATHER FORECAST
Looking at the present conditions, the low is definitely expected to strengthen little on Sunday as the blend of warm SST ( around 30C) continues to supply latent heat the to the system with favorable upper air divergence. The setup seems to be a Cold asymmetrical core meaning to a greater chance of rains domination than Cyclonic strength gain! I expected some wide area of convection to hit Gujarat from Sunday till Tuesday early period.
Majority action shall be on Monday

Rains are widely expected in entire Southern and eastern Gujarat { EXCLUDING BHUJ AREA} . SOUTH WESTERN TIP OF GUJARAT LIKE GIR AREA,PORBANDAR WILL WITNESS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOLLOWED BY Vadodara,Ahemedabad,Surat,Rajkot etc are the cities where rains will ALSO lash. Also rains will be there in Western Madhya Pradesh.

The forecasted low is not suspected to become a TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR CYCLONE.

NOTICE-

NO WEATHER FORECASTS WILL BE AVAILABLE ON THE BLOG,FACEBOOK AS METD WEATHER WILL REMAIN CLOSE FROM SUNDAY,21ST NOV 2010 TO FRIDAY,26TH NOV 2010

weather in nagpur during INDIA VS NEW ZEALAND TEST MATCH from saturday

METD WEATHER,
AKSHAY DEORAS
SUN N SAND, NAGPUR


CONCERNING- WEATHER DURING INDIA VS NEW ZEALAND TEST MATCH AT NAGPUR
20-24th NOV 2010

After 20mm rains on thursday followed by evening thunderstorm, rains have again started in the city with light intensity. Rains with a thunderstorm are also expected on friday in nagpur as the moisture deposited by a LLC presently in vicinity of nagpur.
The cricket match will begin on this saturday and the weather forecasts are permitting for a good play on all 5 days. Clear weather with light cloud cover on saturday is expected at NAGPUR with highs around 31c and low near to 20c. Rainfall is not expected in city during the game.

Heavy rains hits Nagpur again. Temperature drops by 9C due to rains

SECOND IMAGE OF 1330HRS IST, 18TH NOV 2010 OF NAGPUR SHOWING INTENSE RAIN CLOUDS WITH SOME RAINS ALREADY AT THE CENTER OF THE IMAGE( ORANGE COLOR SHADE)

IMAGE AT RIGHT- DATA FROM METEOROLOGICAL CENTER SHOWING INTENSE WINDS

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

As was forecasted in the previous post and also on Facebook fan page of METD WEATHER,Heavy rains hit Nagpur city on Thursday,18th Nov 2010

Rains began around 1359hrs IST and continued well till 1440hrs IST.( RAINS ARE CONTINUING NOW ALSO AT THE TIME OF POST IN LESS INTENSITY). In this span of around 40mins, 20mm rainfall was recorded by the probes set up at METD WEATHER HQ. It means around 0.5mm rain per minute...

TEMPERATURE OF NAGPUR AT 1310HRS(BEFORE RAINS) WAS 31C AND AFTER RAINS, AS RECORDED AT 1430HRS IT WAS 22C

SHARP FALL OF 9C!!!! IN 1HR AND 20MIN { SEE THE TOP IMAGE)

GFS forecast were close to 25mm.

For WEATHER FORECAST OF REMAINING DAY check the link of Facebook posted above

INDIAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT'S FORECAST-

THE INDIAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPT,NAGPUR BRANCH HAD PUT THE WEATHER FORECAST FOR NAGPUR ON 17TH NOV 2010 AND THEY HAVE CLEARLY MENTIONED -

"CLEAR WEATHER ON 18TH AND 19TH NOV 2010"

IT RAINED ON 18TH NOV!!!

IMD MUST BE BANNED FOR MAKING SUCH WRONG FORECAST

( CHECK THE THIRD IMAGE FROM THE TOP)

Statistics

18th NOV 2010

REPORT OF 1410HRS IST OF NAGPUR

WINDS - 20.4KM/HR

GUST- 38.9KM/HR FROM NNW

RAINFALL- 20* MM

TENDENCY- HEAVY

A Low pressure at 850mb will bring some rains in Vidarbha and surroundings

FIRST IMAGE- SATELLITE IMAGERY OF 1430HRS SHOWING CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN BELT OF INDIA

SECOND IMAGE- THE GFS 850MB MAP OF 18TH NOV SHOWING THE LLC. NOTE THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL BE LOW PRESSURE

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The GFS RUNS of 00z,17th Nov are indicating a broad low pressure area or area of cyclonic circulation (LLC) will develop and move bringing rains in Central parts

LLC has already formed and has brought rains with thunderstorm today in New Delhi as was suggested by GFS. The LLC is expected to move to Central India on 18th remain over on 19th,20th.

Rains are expected in central India and Nagpur on Thursday,18th Nov and 19th Nov,Friday WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS

Delhi rains-

Datas from Meteorological center at Delhi airport is showing Thunderstorm and light rains from 3PM-4.30PM. Current temperature in Delhi is about 19-20C which dipped from 25C to 20C..

Almost everyday, fog (shallow) is there in Delhi from late night till around mid morning.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO 15C AT DELHI ON 19TH NOV AND EXPECTED TO DROP TO 13C BY SUNDAY!!

UK Winter Weather Forecast 2010/2011 - November Update

Thank you for all your comments everyone and your requests for an update.  As it stands not much has changed in regards to my winter forecast, I believe the coming weeks and months will truly begin to illustrate what I have been saying.

1. Gulf Stream

It is still evident to see from real time satellite data a large reduction of warm water reaching the UK & Northern Europe in comparison to previous years (see fig.1).  It is still also evident to see a clear breakage in the gulf loop current (see fig.2), the main engine that drives the gulf stream.  As I have stated previously this is what prevents the UK from cold winters due to the latitude it lies on and the central heating effect that the gulf stream offers.  This will without doubt effect this coming winter and future winters of the UK.

Fig 1 (NOAA, 2010)

Fig 2 (NOAA, 2010)

2. La Nina

The current La Nina continues to strengthen and is looking more than capable of causing a sharp decline in global temperatures.  It is also influential to the UK in terms of changes in global weather patterns as I have previously stated.  The UK can therefore expect more precipitation than usual over the coming months, which I suggest we may already be seeing at present and as suggested in my previous blog post dated 21st September 2010.  Now couple this with freezing temperatures and the increased cloud cover from low solar activity and it becomes highly plausible that heavy snowfall will also influence this winter.

3. Solar Activity

The FACT still remains that we are still in a minimum when we should actually be in a maximum.  Yes sunspot activity has increased this year, but it is important to remember that the sun was blank for over 70% of last year and this will effect this coming winter.  This will also have future effects on further prolonged periods of low solar activity.  Now couple this low solar activity with the regional effects of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland and the extra space debris accumulated from the shrinking of the earth's upper atmosphere.  These factors will result in an increased blocking out of sunlight from our already weak sun, which will carry a combined effect in terms of temperature reductions.

I am therefore still currently forecasting that the UK and Northern Europe will experience at the very least a winter similar to the last, or as I expect much worse with heavy snowfall due to the following FACTS!  The winter of 2011/2012 is still the height of my concerns and could prove even worse than the one we are about to experience right now, due to the lag effect that comes with a number of these processes.

Unfortunately I do feel like I am repeating myself, but as stated nothing much has changed in regards to my winter forecast.  It would be fair to state that the situation has actually worsened in terms of the strengthening La Nina and the unimproved behaviour of the gulf stream.  I therefore suggest it is time to wrap up and make those last minute preparations before this winter well and truly grips us!


In terms of publicity and raising vital awareness I am happy to say that things have actually picked up, the youtube video has had over 16,000 views to date and my blog has received over 50,000 visitors in recent months.  I also received a news story publication in the highly respectable World Snowboard Guide http://www.worldsnowboardguide.com/news/story/20100930winterprediction.cfm

I must say a huge thank you to editor Steve Dowle from WSG Media for making this possible.  The latest edition of the World Snowboard Guide is also available to purchase online from their website above or at any respectable high street book retailer.

Heavy rains expected in Andhra Pradesh,Northern Tamil Nadu

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Very heavy rainfall is expected to strike coastal Andhra Pradesh,few northern parts of Tamil Nadu as the low pressure at present in the bay of bengal will come over land on Tuesday,16th Nov 2010 and continued effect on Wednesday,17th Nov 2010

The areas of heavy rainfall are likely in an area from SE of Machilipatanam stretching upto Puducherry

Rains in Mumbai

Rains and thunderstorm with winds gusting to around 40.7km/hr were reported from Mumbai meteorological center at around 08:10PM. Winds were around 22.2km/hr

Satellite imagery showing massive cloud with CB signs responsible for Thunderstorm. Thunderstorm also was reported in Pune... November month has never been so different. Rains have halted with partly cloud skies in Central India as moisture (most of the) has withdrawn.. With the bay low sweeping again, some more rains are expected to happen after 18th.

NOTICE-

METD WEATHER forecasts will not be available from Monday 22nd Nov 2010-Friday 26th Nov 2010 as I will be in Pune for some private work.. Forecast shall resume by Saturday,27th

No NAGPUR FORECAST will be available too. So Sorry for this as some rains are expected around that period.

Looking at the weather, I must admit that it will be advisable to carry umbrella to Pune during the visit next week instead of sweaters. Pune is getting rains almost everyday

Heavy Thunderstorm grips Vidarbha with rains. More expected

CAPE PLOT showing MAX CAPE over Central And Southern India

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

28mm rainfall was recorded at METD WEATHER hq due to a strong thunderstorm in afternoon hours of 11th Nov and evening-night-morning thunderstorm on 11th and 12th Nov.

Lightning with strong electric potentials were observed at night hours on thursday as strong backlights was observed followed by strong thunderstorm and moderate rains at late night continuing till early morning!

Rainfall also hit various areas of Vidarbha and North Central Maharashtra as the moisture deposited by the remnants of Cyclone Jal is colliding with the cool air from the north giving more cloud cover and rains at the center.

Moisture is going to continue well till 20th Nov which is due to remnants of JAL and then I see another low pressure in the bay doing so again.

So November in central India is expected to be warmer at nights and days.

Weather Forecast

Rains with mostly cloud cover will continue in Central India with rainfall chance with Thunderstorm in forecast as Strong CAPE coupled with daytime heating will trigger Cumulonimbus clouds formation and development.

Nagpur -

Rains are expected with thunderstorm again on Friday(12th Nov 2010) as daytime heating with CAPE will continue.

For more details- Visit Facebook page of METD WEATHER

This November in Central India looks like June

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The GFS 850mb showing typical SW Monsoon signatures as blend of rich moisture has deposited over Central and Southern India due to the Tropical Cyclone JAL land sweep over much of Southern and Central India earlier this week. A typical feature which happens during Monsoon season in India as the bay low sweeps over Central India precipitating heavily in course due to moisture deposition.

Rainfall was widely observed in Eastern Maharashtra and Central Maharashtra on Monday with data recorder recorded light to moderate rains in Nagpur. Unfortunately no data was recorded at METD WEATHER hq as I was away (around 80kms) from the city on a short vacation.

The 200-300mb map is also showing the jet streams have a more southerly flow and extent, a typical monsoon feature. Such feature prevents formation and impacts of so called western disturbance or Extratropical storm originating in Mediterranean area and bringing rains and snow in North Inda. So as long as the GFS is showing good low level moisture at least till more than Half of November i.e ( upto 20th Nov) most of the areas will have warmer nights and early mornings than the sudden chilly dip which happened in late October.

Anticyclone is expected to build over North Central India in next week that might act like Monsoon withdrawal system and then permitting Winter.

COOLING CONTINUES IN NORTH INDIA

As North India is away from this low level moisture zone, cooling is continuing with minimum temperatures around 12-13C.

Srinagar is having min temperatures near to 3C.

The cool air is unable to move in Central India as the winds don't have a Northerly flow. They are southerly.

RAIN CHANCES IN CENTRAL INDIA

AS THE BLEND OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO COLLIDE WITH THE ARRIVING COOL AIR FROM THE NORTH CONTINUES TO COLLIDE

Cyclone Jal's cloudmass makes a landfall by 7AM-12PM as per METD WEATHER forecast

ABOVE- REMNANTS OF CYCLONE JAL AS IT MADE A COMPLETE LANDFALL BEFORE 12PM

top- HISTOGRAM FROM CHENNAI SHOWING PEAK WINDS GUSTING AROUND 46.3KM/HR AROUND 10AM THIS MORNING. THIS IS WHEN MAX.INTENSITY WINDS REACHED CHENNAI

Cyclone JAl's cloudmass made a landfall today morning in the state of Orissa. My friend reported from Puducherry which is in Pondicherry that very very heavy rains with storm surge and winds were there in the town in the morning. He also told that there were floods in some areas and trees,powerlines down at some areas

Jal weakened significantly in the past few hours before the landfall and now as seen in the satellite imagery of 1PM, Cyclone JAL has totally disappeared.

THE LANDFALL TIME,LOCATION WAS SIMILAR TO METD WEATHER'S FORECAST

ALL THE WARNINGS FROM SOUTH INDIA WILL BE LIFTED BY 11PM TODAY

I will update more as more details appear.

Tropical Cyclone Jal makes a Final round of intensification before landfall

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Cyclone Jal is intensifying again before making a landfall. As seen from IR-BD satellite imagery,

Convection at the center has organized and seen from animation, the core has expanded giving central core more bulge!

Wind shears are relaxed with more convergence building up with divergence aloft

Jal will reach a peak Cat 1 status or a Cat 2 status before landfall as a Cat 1 cyclone

Effects from Cyclone Jal expected soon in South India

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The massive clouding associated with the Tropical cyclone Jal is now moving towards India. As seen from satellite imagery, clouds have neared India and are few hundred kilometers away only

Cyclone Jal is bracing the bay now and I think GFS models are not accurate this time!

ENTIRE ALERT RESCHEDULED

BASED ON THE RECENT ANALYSIS

CYCLONE JAL NOW WILL MAKE A LANDFALL ON 7TH NOV 2010, SUNDAY

EARLY MORNING INSTEAD OF EVENING

CLOUD MASS OF CYCLONE JAL WILL MAKE A LANDFALL BY 12PM ON SUNDAY AND SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKE HEAVY WINDS,RAINS WILL INITIATE FROM LATE TONIGHT AFTER 12AM

LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE A LANDFALL AROUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON

PDS AND MARK 5 ALERT BEGINS ON 2100HRS,6TH NOV 2010 AND EXPIRES ON 2300HRS,7TH NOV 2010.

PLACE OF LANDFALL

ALL MODELS ARE ARGUING LIKE ANYTHING!

THE MULTISPECT. SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN MASSIVE STRENGTHENING AT THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM

LANDFALL PLACE LOOKS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ALERT.

THE MAP WILL BE REPLACED WITH ANOTHER ONE TONIGHT

Cat.1 Cyclone Jal heads for a landfall. CAN BE MOST DESTRUCTIVE CYCLONE OF 2010 IN INDIA

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Concerning- PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION (PDS),MARK 5 ALERT IN CONCERN TO LANDFALL ON CYCLONE JAL

CYCLONE JAL IS VERY VERY DANGEROUS AND CAN BE MORE DANGEROUS THAN CYCLONE AILA which happened in 2009. LOT OF DAMAGE EXPECTED FROM JAL

ALERT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

Category 1 Cyclone "JAL" in the bay of bengal is now on a final course before a landfall on Sunday

Jal as on Saturday morning remains 650km East-South east of Chennai,750km South East of Nellore.

Forecast-

Jal is right now entering a 20kt Vertical Wind shear stationed around 85E. The latest satellite imagery is showing the central core has shrinked a bit with the unorganization of rain bands around the LLC. So I expect that Cyclone Jal will weaken slightly due to the shear especially it will lose the symmetrical shape. The wind intensity might decrease by few km/hr but as the shears go away and Jal again enters a relaxed V.shear environment with a blend of warmer SST, 20kt building lower convergence and excellent divergence aloft, Jal will intensify again from Saturday late evening to Sunday morning hours and CIMSS expects wind speed to reach 85kt! that is 158km/hr and CAN GIVE Jal a status of Cat 2 Cyclone sometime tonight!

As day dawns, Jal might continue to be a Cat 2 cyclone but a developing 30kt V.shear might reduce the intensity for a permanent basis.

JAL IS AN INTENSE CYCLONE AND WILL MAKE A LANDFALL ON SUNDAY (7TH NOV 2010) EVENING PERIOD (AFTER 6PM) IN AN AREA SHOWN ON THE ATTACHED IMAGE(95% RISK). CHENNAI LIES IN THE RISK AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO BE HIT BY THIS SUPER CYCLONE

EXPECTED DAMAGE-

STATE OF SEA IS VERY ROUGH RIGHT NOW AND AS JAL MAKES A LANDFALL, STORM SURGE UPTO 5-8FT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS AND TOWNS NEAR THE COAST. STRONG WINDS NEAR TO 150KM/HR (GUST ) ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE TO SMALL HUTS,FEW BUILDINGS AND ALSO LIFE

DUE TO THIS,

METD WEATHER ISSUES A MARK 5 ALERT AND PDS (PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION) INITIATING FROM 0600HRS IST,7TH NOV 2010 UPTO 1200 HRS IST 8TH NOV 2010 ESPECIALLY FOR CHENNAI

THIS SITUATION IS VERY VERY DANGEROUS AND CAN BE AS DANGEROUS AS CYCLONE AILA which happened in 2009

METD WEATHER GIVES "GO" FOR LAUNCH OF SPACE SHUTTLE DISCOVERY ON 5TH NOV 2010

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Concerning- STS 131,Space Shuttle Discovery launch from Kennedy Space Center,FL

Due to very bad weather on Thursday, Discovery Space Shuttle is expected to launch today(Friday) at around 0304PM EDT. (1904hrs GMT)

RULES VS FORECAST

1] Tanking will not begin if the 24hrs temperature has been below 41F(5C)

24hr minimum temperature was around 55.4F (13C)

So Step 1 is accepted

2] TANKING WILL NOT BEGIN IF THE WIND IS FORECASTED OR IS ABOVE 42KT FOR NEXT 3HRS

Wind is expected to be around 14kt in the launch window period.

Wind gusts will be around 19-20kt.

So Step 2 is accepted

3] PRECIPITATION IS NOT ALLOWED AT LAUNCH PAD OR IN THE FLIGHT'S PATH

Around 45% chance of rains in the launch pad. But forecasts indicating very less rain chance and forecast GFS will be correct.

So step 3 is on hold.

4] LIGHTNING AND ELECTRIC FIELD WITH TRIGGERING POTENTIALS

Lightning is not expected today at Launch pad.

So Step 4. is accpeted

5] CLOUDS MUST BE NON CONVECTIVE AND ABOVE 8000FT

IF BELOW 8000FT THEN THICKNESS SHOULD BE LESS

Clouds are expected to be above 6000ft.

Light clouds are expected.

This step is not expected to create a problem but STEP 5. is on hold temporarily

6] This step is when the RULE 1. is not valid

So Step 6. is accepted

IN ALL

4 out of 6 steps are clear and LAUNCH REMAINS 67% favorable ( around 70% GO)

30% no go due to some high winds and little chance of spells of rain which is RARE

METD WEATHER GIVES THE LAUNCH "GO" FOR TODAY WITH THE MAIN CONCERN ABOUT HIGH WINDS AND VERY VERY LESS CHANCE OF RAINS AT LAUNCH PAD AS PER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

I EXPECT LAUNCH WILL HAPPEN TODAY AT 0304PM EDT!

NASA HAS GIVEN "GO" FOR TANKING AND LAUNCH FORECAST REMAINS 70% GO as per their weather forecast

Tropical Cyclone JAL to intensify more!

IMAGES-

1] THE METD WEATHER ALERT MAP OF INDIA

2] IMAGE (IR-NHC) OF CYCLONE JAL IN THE BAY OF BENGAL

METD WEATHER

AKSHAY DEORAS

Severe Weather Forecaster

Concerning- Brief intensification expected of existing tropical cyclone "Jal"

Tropical Cyclone Jal in the bay of bengal currently (00z,UTC,5th Nov 2010) is at 9.3N and 88.6E with current wind speed ( max sustained) of 45kt about 750km East of Trincomalee( Sri Lanka),950km of East-South east of Chennai and 1100km Southeast of Vishakhapatanam as on 1100hrs IST

As of now, situated in a very very favorable conditions which includes a 29C Sea Surface Temp, supportive low level convergence, nice upper level divergence over 20kt ahead and nearly relaxed Vertical wind shear, Cyclone Jal is expected to intensify more in next 24hrs due to the blend of Warmer SST 30C in its path and developing low level convergence.

The recent satellite imagery is showing that intense convection has already organized into a well defined Low level circulation with the outer rain bands forming around the central intensity.

A set 20kt Vertical Wind shear around NW of the center has affected convection and symmetry of the setup with the rest core remaining symmetric and warm cored.

Forecast-

Tropical Cyclone Jal will intensify to atleast a Cat.1 cyclone in next 48hrs before making a landfall on 7th Nov 2010,Sunday BETWEEN CHENNAI,TAMIL NADU AND KANDUKUR,ANDHRA PRADESH( FOR PRECISION REFER METD WEATHER TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MAP POSTED AT TOP OF THE BLOG)

But natural,

Heavy rains,winds,Storm surge and GALE will happen during the landfall

Refer the METD WEATHER alert map for details

Chennai,Tamil Nadu is expected to be in threat due to this system

Space Shuttle Discovery launch delayed. Weather not permissive for a launch on Nov 4th 2010

NASA had delayed Space Shuttle Discovery's launch on 3rd Nov by a period of 24hrs

Launch officially has been targeted for 0329PM EDT on Nov 4th 2010 but weather conditions at Kennedy space Center,FL will not permit for a launch

Weather forecasts-

Isolated thunderstorm and rainfall from Wednesday afternoon northward across Martin...Saint Lucie and Okeechobee counties...and into Indian River County by late afternoon.

Thu- 90%+ chance of rains with thunderstorm

High- 26C

Low -16C

Fri-20C

Low- 8C

Weather is permissive for a launch on Friday,5th Nov 2010

Tropical Cyclone Jal forms in the Bay of Bengal! Has all potentials for Intensification

IMAGES-

TOP- THE IR-BD SECTOR IMAGE SHOWING MASSIVE CONVECTION WEST OF { I } THAT IS INVEST OR LOW PRESSURE

2ND IMAGE- The IR-enhanced image showing banding features organization around low noted by outer rain bands(green color in the image)

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

The deep depression in Bay of Bengal which had entered from South China Sea has now become a Cyclone definitely a Tropical Storm Cat. on the Saffir Simpson Scale

JTWC has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation alert

Forecast-

Situated at 8.0N and 92.7E in the wide Bay of Bengal, convection has rapidly fired up/intensified and organized around a well developing low level cyclonic circulation or LLC due to very favorable conditions which includes a 29C and above SST,20kt divergent outflow and developing 10kt low level convergence around the low pressure.

Vertical wind shears have now relaxed in the periphery of the cyclone and will permit for a Significant intensification in the next 24hrs!

At this stage, banding feature has started around the LLC indicating a pressure is intensifying at the center.

Tropical Cyclone Jal AS PER METD WEATHER IS FORECAST AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR NEXT 48HRS MIGHT TURN TO A CAT.1 CYCLONE WITH MAX WINDS OVER 153KM/HR

LANDFALL

LANDFALL WILL HAPPEN ON NOV 7 2010

AREA OF LANDFALL REMAINS AROUND CHENNAI AND THE ISSUED METD WEATHER ALERT MAP FOR INDIA WILL BE UPDATED ON 4TH NOV 2010 MORNING. PLEASE NOTE THAT LANDFALL WILL HAPPEN IN AREA AROUND TAMIL NADU-ANDHRA PRADESH BORDER IN INDIA !!!

METD WEATHER CALLS FOR A 66-70% ACCEPTABLE CONDITIONS FOR LAUNCH OF SPACE SHUTTLE DISCOVERY

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

CONCERNING - WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR LAUNCH OF SPACE SHUTTLE DISCOVERY ON STS 133 MISSION FROM KENNEDY SPACE CENTER,FL LAUNCH PAD 39A

LAUNCH COMMIT CRITERIA FOR SPACE SHUTTLE AS PREPARED BY NASA

1] TEMPERATURE

1] TANKING WILL NOT BEGIN IF 24HR TEMPERATURE has been BELOW 41F (5C) AT MINIMUM OR ABOVE 99F

THE 24HR MIN TEMP ON 2-3NOV WILL BE AROUND 18-19C WHICH MEANS TANKING WILL BE PERMITTED AND MAX WILL BE AROUND 26C. (84F)

SO FROM WEATHER POINT OF VIEW, TANKING IS "GO"

2] the temperature is lower than the prescribed minimum value for longer than 30 minutes unless sun angle, wind, temperature and relative humidity conditions permit recovery. The minimum temperature limit in degrees F. is specified by the table below and is a function of the five minute average of temperature, wind and humidity. The table becomes applicable when the observed temperature reaches 48 degrees. In no case may the Space Shuttle be launched if the temperature is 35 degrees or colder.

Wind Speed	Relative Humidity
(kts)	0-64%	65-74%	75-79%	80-89%	90-100%
0 - 1	48	47	46	45	44
2	47	46	45	44	43
3	41	41	41	40	39
4	39	39	39	39	38
5 - 7	38	38	38	38	38
8 - 14	37	37	37	37	37
>14	36	36	36	36	36

The above table can be used to determine when conditions are again acceptable for launch if parameters have been out of limits for thirty minutes or less. If longer than thirty minutes, a mathematical recovery formula of the environmental conditions is used to determine if a return to acceptable parameters has been achieved. Launch conditions have been reached if the formula reaches a positive value.

THE ABOVE RULE [2] DOESN'T APPLY AS MIN AND MAX TEMP AT LAUNCH TIME ARE WITHIN THE ACCEPTABLE WINDOW

3] WINDS

RULE- TANKING WILL NOT BEGIN IF THE WIND FORECAST OR ACTUAL IS OVER 42KT FOR NEXT 3HRS

FORECAST- WIND SPEED IS GOING TO REMAIN NEAR 7-9KT DURING THE LAUNCH WINDOW.

FORECAST SAYS "GO" FOR TANKING

RULE- WIND AT LAUNCH VARIES FROM MISSION TO MISSION

4] LIGHTNING

RULE- LIGHTNING AND ELECTRIC FIELD WITH TRIGGERING POTENTIALS ARE NOT ALLOWED

IF FORECAST IS FOR 20% CHANCE OF LIGHTNING THEN TANKING WILL NOT BEGIN

WITHIN 5NM OF LAUNCH PAD, THE ONE MINUTE AVERAGE OF ELECTRIC INTENSITY MUST REMAIN BETWEEN +1KV/M TO -1KV/M

VALUES EXCEEDING THIS LIMIT ARE NOT ALLOWED

FORECAST

The forecast doesn't call for a thunderstorm with lightning potentials and strong electric intensity

So tanking is go from this point of view

5] PRECIPITATION

NOT ALLOWED AT LAUNCH PAD OR AROUND THE LAUNCH PAD

FORECAST- FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30% CHANCE OF RAINS AT LAUNCH WINDOW PERIOD AT KENNEDY SPACE CENTER,FL AND ACCUMULATION AROUND 1"

FORECAST WILL VERY ON THE LAUNCH DAY .

METD WEATHER FORECASTS- ITS A "GO OR NO GO" DECISION AND WILL BE BEST DECIDED ON THE LAUNCH DAY SEEING THE RADAR

6] CLOUD CEILING

RULE- DIRECT OBSERVATION OF SPACE SHUTTLE IS REQUIRED FOR FIRST 8000FT

SO CLOUD CEILING SHOULD BE ABOVE 8000FT

Forecast- Forecast calls for some low clouds of ceiling around 3000ft

The thickness of the clouds is expected to be low and might favor for a launch as in this case, clouds must be light

IN ALL,

METD WEATHER FORECASTS CALLS FOR A 66-70% ACCEPTABLE CONDITIONS AT THE LAUNCH TIME AS AROUND 4 RULES OUT OF 6 PROMINENTLY ARE ACCEPTABLE. NASA CALLS FOR A 70% FAVORABLE CHANCE WHICH IS NEAR TO METD WEATHER'S VALUE

** 30% UNACCEPTABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD CEILING PROBLEM.

** GO OR NO GO FOR LAUNCH WILL BE BETTER DECIDED FEW HOURS TO THE LAUNCH SEEING THE RADAR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENTERS BAY OF BENGAL FROM THAILAND. WILL INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL STORM

(TOP- THE RADAR IMAGE FROM KRABI IS. THAILAND SHOWING THE DEPRESSION PASSING AND THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH IT)

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The tropical wave from South-China sea carrying the Tropical Depression will be arriving in the Bay of Bengal today with expected air pressure around 1000-1002mb! The low is centered at Krabi province of Thailand at 8N 98.9E

As seen from morning satellite imagery, intense convection is firing at North,North East side of the low pressure and partial at the west side. In the periphery of 20-30kt wind shear convection is relatively poor at southern side. Amidst a very favorable low level convergence and nice upper level divergence, stron

g convection will continue to fire/organize around the low pressure as the tropical depression will intensify to a deep depression in next 24-48hrs.

(RIGHT- THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAP SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. )

Given the 28-29C Sea Surface Temp and excellent moisture and expected little interference from the wind shears, I expect that this tropical depression will develop into a deep depression and might convert to a Tropical Storm as the wind shear tendancy in its path is decreasing type!

Landfall-

Right now, the storm is moving west at around 8kt that is 14.81 km/hr and maximum winds of 50km/hr. It is indeed a slow storm and will make a landfall on 7th Oct 2010 at coastal Andhra Pradesh. For more details- See the map on front page of METD WEATHER

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER UPDATE

IN AN UPDATE MADE TODAY, JTWC HAS GIVEN A FAIR CHANCE OF THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENING INTO A CYCLONE. METD WEATHER ESTIMATES A TROPICAL STORM OUT OF IT.

2010 WINTER FORECAST FOR INDIA

FIRST IMAGE-

MAP PREPARED BY METD WEATHER DEPICTING EXPECTED AIR TEMP ANOMALY IN INDIA SHOWING VERY COOL CONDITIONS IN MAHARASHTRA ESP AND WARMER CONDITIONS IN JAMMU AND KASHMIR

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

METD Weather's 2010

Winter Outlook of India is out!

METD WEATHER forecasts for a cooler than normal winter in most of the areas in India.

Reasons-

1] Due to La Nina ( Phenomena when the Sea surface temp in Central Pacific cool down) the jet streams are expected to intensify more across the world

2] Blocking High Pressure over Tibet

3] More southward flow of Jet streams than normal.

1] LA NINA

The Second phase of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is La Nina. La Niña refers

to a period when the Sea Surface Temp in Equatorial pacific cool down by 3-5C as the east ward moving oceanic waves from South America bring more colder water towards equatorial pacific.

La Nina is followed by El Nino which concluded in Mid 2010. La Nina is now in a near full swing.

La Nina has opposite consequence as that of El Nino

La Nina also strengthens the Jet streams.

2] Blocking high pressure over Tibet

As cooler temperature builds in Tibet, a high pressure area builds over Northern India and also in Tibet, Right now the air pressure is as high as 1040mb. The Jet streams flowing from west to east are blocked by this air pressure so the jet stream splits into two branches or mostly jet stream digs South instead of North

As the high pressure blocks the jet stream, jet stream digs southwards in India covering areas of Punjab,Haryana,Delhi,Madhya Pradesh,Maharashtra and much of the North-Central India.

The Jet rarely flows over Jammu and Kashmir ( except for Western Disturbance).

So more cool air digs southwards than normal during La Nina.

The intensity of the high pressure over Tibet and North India is related to the La Nina phenomena.

(IMAGE AT LEFT- TEMP IMPACTS FROM LA NINA SHOWING COOL CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF INDIA EXCEPT J&K.COLD EPISODES MEANS THIS PERIOD)

3] As mentioned above,

This year more cool air is going to flow over Central and North Central India. This means CENTRAL INDIA,NORTH-CENTRAL INDIA(EXCEPT JAMMU AND KASHMIR) AND SOUTHERN INDIA WILL HAVE COOLER THAN NORMAL WINTER

REGIONAL FORECAST

1] JAMMU AND KASHMIR-

THE STATE IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A WARMER WINTER THIS YEAR. NOTE WARMER MEANS COMPARITIVELY WARMER AND DOESN'T MEAN TEMPERATURES 10C ABOVE NORMAL! IT WILL BE AROUND (0.5+C) THAN AVERAGE

WHENEVER THERE WILL BE WESTERN DISTURBANCE, THEY WILL BE SEVERE AND I EXPECT 2-3 SEVERE SNOWFALL EVENTS IN 2010-11 EARLY PERIOD IN J&K AND HIMACHAL PRADESH

2] PUNJAB,CHANDIGARH,HARAYANA,DELHI

THESE AREAS WILL WITNESS (0.3-0.5 C) LESS THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE.

THIS FIGURE IS SMALL ITS A SIGNIFICANT FROM METEOROLOGY ASPECT.

THIS MEANS EVERYDAY THE TEMPERATURE MIGHT BE AROUND 1C LESS THAN WHAT WAS RECORDED PREVIOUS YEAR THE SAME DAY.

3] MADHYA PRADESH,MAHARASHTRA,UTTAR PRADESH,BIHAR,JHARKHAND

THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO WITNESS VERY COOLER WINTER. TEMP WILL BE LESS THAN (1C) THAN AVERAGE****

THIS MEANS RECORDED TEMPERATURE ON THIS DAY WILL BE LESS THAN

1C THAN RECORDED PREVIOUS YEAR THE SAME DAY

** THIS WILL HAPPEN DURING MOST OF THE TIME IN WINTER. SOME PERIODS MIGHT WITNESS DIFFERENT VARIATIONS ACCORDING TO WEATHER CONDITIONS.

4] SOUTHERN INDIA

SOUTHERN INDIA WILL WITNESS A COOLER AND WETTER WINTER PERIOD BELONGING TO COLD EPISODES OF LA NINA

RIGHT-

THE PREDICTED MAP BY NOAA SHOWING WET CONDITIONS IN COLD EPISODES OF LA NINA ( NOV-FEB)