400TH POST ON THE BLOG!
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL AND ERN AR...NRN MS...AND WRN TN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK AND NERN TX EWD INTO THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...
An upper level low stretching presently over West CA shall set into motion due to the Southerly Jet stream with portions of Jet Stream ( Jet Streak) amplifying over close to New Mexico by today afternoon.
With potent jet streaks of 120kt by tomorrow morning to afternoon across SW OK,NW TX along with the deepening of surface low from late periods of today, squall line thunderstorms are expected to move along the dryline close to the low pressure.
Thunderstorms with rainfall,gusty winds and hails likely to move across Eastern OK,NE TX into Arkansas.
A quickly developing Low level Jet having Southerly flow shall rapidly bring moisture into Arkansas,Louisiana,Mississippi,Alabama,Tennessee reaching upto 40kt afternoon on Thursday and amplifying into 50-60kt by late evening period.
With little but sufficient MLCAPE for convection and plenty of low level wind shears in the warm sector with dewpoints of 70F, Thunderstorms shall modify to strong thunderstorms with some of them as supercells.
On Thursday ( Morning till afternoon)
Thunderstorms shall be capable of producing hails and winds across Central,Eastern,South Eastern OK,NE TX and NRN TX.
By Mid Afternoon - Late Afternoon
With developing LLJ and rich shear environment in the Unstable conditions over Arkansas,Western Mississippi
Ongoing thunderstorms shall modify to isolated supercells by late evening capable of hails and winds
With the best feature of 60kt LLJ at very late periods on thursday into friday morning,
Tornadoes are possible in area from Central to NE Arkansas, NW corridor of Mississippi,Tennessee BY LATE NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY
** NOCTURNAL TORNADOES ARE VERY DANGEROUS.
THE POSITION OF STORMS WILL BE DECIDED BY THE WARM FRONT SO POSITION MIGHT CHANGE AS PER THE NEW MODEL RUNS
MY TORNADO TARGET LIES ENE of Jackson,TN
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