METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
Concerning- MARK 5 ALERT, PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION(PDS) FOR NORTH INDIA. ( 5TH FEB ONWARDS)
Multiple heavy snowfall events is likely in North India from tomorrow(Feb 03 2011) onwards.
The Western Disturbance which can be seen in the satellite imagery as a gigantic cloud patch at NW of J&K shall precipitate snow in Jammu and Kashmir entire state with rains at lower reaches and
Northern Himachal Pradesh
Below is the estimated snowfall amounts with effects due to it.
I notice two extratropical storms ( WD) embeded in the 300mb jetstream flow
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For Western Disturbance I.
Expected 500 mb height - 564dm
Snowfall from Thu (3rd Feb 2011 ) t0 Sat ( 5th Feb 2011)
Place- 1} Skardu,Gilgit( POK)
RATE AND ACCUMULATION - MODERATE TO HEAVY
2} KASHMIR VALLEY( SRINAGAR CITY,GULMARG,SONAMARG,PAHALGAM,ZOJI LA,)
RATE AND ACCUMULATION - MODERATE SNOWFALL
EFFECTS- ENOUGH TO CUT OFF THE AREAS BY ALL TRANSPORT MEANS.
3] KARGIL VALLEY AND LADAKH ( AREAS BETWEEN KARGIL AND LEH AND AROUND LEH)
RATE - MODERATE IN KARGIL VALLEY
LIGHT IN LADAKH
EFFECTS- ENOUGH TO CUT OFF THE AREAS BY ALL TRANSPORT MEANS.
4] HIMACHAL PRADESH -( NORTHERN HP ONLY)
RATE- LIGHT
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By the time this Western Disturbance brings snowfall in North India,
As this shortwave trough in the above case precipitates, the western portion of the jet streams shall intensify to jets around 120kt and embeded low pressure ( Second W.d) shall reach North India during 5th Feb
On/After 5th Feb 2011, the eastern extent of this trough shall potentially modify and mature to a shortwave trough which will again bring rains and snowfall in North India
Below is the estimation of it
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For Western Disturbance 2. ( Trailing end of the first shortwave trough)
expected 500mb height - 558dm
Snowfall from 5th Feb (SAT) -----
Snowfall from the previous Western Disturbance shall reduce on 5th but by late hours shall intensify as the next western disturbance stars affecting.
1] Skardu,Gilgit etc....
Rate- VERY HEAVY ( MODERATE TILL AFTERNOON 6TH FEB. VERY HEAVY FROM LATER THAT DAY )
...
2} KASHMIR VALLEY( SRINAGAR, CITY,GULMARG,SONAMARG,PAHALGAM,ZOJI LA) &
KARGIL VALLEY AND LADAKH
RATE AND ACCUMULATION -
ON SAT(5TH) - LIGHT TO MODERATE
** FROM 6TH FEB TO 8TH FEB 2011 - VERY VERY HEAVY.. HIGH ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD PARTICULARLY ON 7TH FEB 2011
EFFECTS- TOTAL DISRUPTION OF LIFE,TRANSPORT ETC..
ALERTS-
METD WEATHER ISSUES A MARK 5 ALERT AND PDS FOR THIS AREA STARTING FROM 1500HRS ON SATURDAY (5TH FEB 2011) TILL 1200 HRS ON TUESDAY ( 8TH FEB 2011)
3] HIMACHAL PRADESH ( ALL STATE HIGHER REACHES)
RATE- LIGHT ON 5TH FEB
MODERATE ON 6TH FEB
HEAVY ON LATE PERIOD OF 6TH FEB, ON 7TH FEB
LIGHT ON 8TH FEB 2011
EFFECTS- TOTAL DISRUPTION OF LIFE,TRANSPORT ETC...
ALERTS- MARK 5 ALERT FROM 0800HRS 6TH FEB TILL 0800HRS 9TH FEB 2011
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http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/ipsm_looper.php?PROD=2011020306_ASA_GFS_300_HGT_WINDS
Animation showing the 300mb winds
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