Models Continue to Support North Plains Snowstorm Late Next Week

6z GFS Hour 144

0z ECMWF Hour 144

The ECMWF and GFS models are pointing towards a snowstorm for the Northern Plains, including the Denver, CO region. The GFS projects a strong low coming north from the Colorado area and producing snowy conditions for the Dakotas. That blue line is the rain-snow line: anything north will be snow, anything south will be rain, theoretically. The 0z ECMWF takes it to another level, bringing not one, but TWO strong low pressure systems along for the ride. Now, in some aspects, this would mean twice the snow. That is not necessarily true. However, the prospect of 2 lows does indeed increase snow potentials. Below is a snowfall 3 hour accumulation map from the ECMWF. Credit to Wundermap.

Check out how strong the line will be for North Dakota between rain and snow. Accumulations may go as high as 6 inches (of higher), but that remains to be seen. Stay tuned with The Weather Centre, your winter weather service provider, as we track this system across the model boards.

UK Winter Forecast 2011-12 (Final Outlook)

UK Winter Forecast 2011-12 (Final Outlook)


http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

Some major indifferences amongst many forecasters about what this winter has in store for us at present.

The 2010/11 UK winter mean temperature (December, January, February) was -1.3c below average, with widespread heavy snowfall throughout November and December across many parts of the UK, as I originally forecast. Although my winter forecast also held true in terms of a below average winter as a whole for temperature, February actually saw a return to much milder conditions, that recorded a mean Central England Temperature (CET) anomaly of +2.6c. I did state in my January update that the stage the La Niña had reached, may influence some much needed and welcomed weather, which I originally underestimated in some of my much earlier forecasts. Even though I did forecast the return of La Niña conditions for 2011/12 earlier on in the year, a key aspect that I emphasised strongly on, was that the La Niña would not be as strong this time around.

I have fairly high confidence at this stage, that we will experience a much more prolonged period of increased jet-stream blocking in comparison to last year. This will bring frequent and widespread heavy snowfalls during November to January across many parts of the UK and Ireland, with below-average temperatures for the meteorological winter of 2011/12 as a whole. Of course there will be some moderation at times with geographical variations, but the overall theme for this winter will be very cold and snowy across many parts of the UK and Ireland. This is a logical conclusion based on the parameters I consider within my forecasts, any snowfall or temperature records broken within this defined time frame (November to February) or for the winter as a whole will be posted accordingly.

Earlier forecasts that offer specific locations are based on a different set of parameters and historical data, and are intended as a general insight. As to how a weather pattern can actually unfold a few days before is somewhat different, and I certainly can't claim to have the technology or finances to monitor these short range situations, as well as other leading and well funded organisations. I can however make the best of the resources I have available to me, with the integration of the major natural factors that I have studied in depth and consider within my forecasting analysis, to offer a fairly reasonable and reliable account of the weather patterns that are likely to unfold for a defined time period (several months in advance) and just as I have done over the past few years. Further updates will therefore follow and become more location and date specific as we head into and progress through winter. Here is what I initially issued on Youtube on the 4th Feb 2011

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=push7IO4fCg&feature=related

Here is what I initially issued on 2^nd September 2010 (last year)

“I am currently predicting that the UK and Northern Europe will experience at the very least a winter similar to the last, or as I expect much worse with heavy snowfall. “This is my basis on the severity of the cold for this coming winter due to the lag effect that comes with some of these processes, which will in return drastically affect the summer and winter of the UK in 2011/12.”

Result (Winter 2010/11) = Coldest December in 100 years, widespread heavy snowfall in November and December, UK winter mean temperature was -1.3c below-average.

Result (Summer 2011) = Coldest UK summer in over two decades, largely above average rainfall in many places, torrential downpours and severe flooding events.

Result (Winter 2011/12) = PENDING...

October Snowfall

I stated on the 2^nd September 2011 update

“As we head towards winter, I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK. In terms of the meteorological winter, I expect December, January, and February to experience below average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfalls occurring within the time frame of November to January across many parts of the UK.”

October 2011 has seen some moderate to heavy snowfall in CERTAIN parts of the UK. The first snow of the season came in early October in upland Scotland, and although snow is certainly not unusual in these parts of the UK during October, this is why I included this within my autumn forecast/winter update. Further heavier falls of snow and drifts was also recorded later on within the month in Scotland, with the earliest snowfall in almost 50 years in Co Derry, Northern Ireland.

CAIRNGORM MOUNTAIN STAFF - OCTOBER 2011

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-15375136

CO DERRY, NORTHERN IRELAND - OCTOBER 2011

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1017/weather.html#video

Meteorological winter 2011/12

December 2011

Below average temperatures and heavy snowfall is likely across many parts of the UK.

January 2012

Below average temperatures and heavy snowfall is likely across many parts of the UK

February 2012

Below average temperatures and moderate to heavy snowfall is likely across parts of the UK

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Published: 30th October 2011 (23:27) GMTContent copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

NEW NAM shows First Snow for Midwest!

The newly-printed 0z NAM is producing a possible snowstorm for the Illinois/Missouri/Wisconsin region. The old 18z GFS was NOT producing this solution, so we will have to wait until tomorrow to see if the NAM can sway the GFS, or vice versa. Either way, it is another of two systems that may bring a very early winter to the US like the coastal storm already has for the Northeast.

Your Halloween Forecast

Your Halloween forecast involves a milder temperature spell for the South US into the Plains. Some wetter weather could make the trick or treating damp through the Ohio Valley and possibly into the Northeast. The same goes for portions of the Southeast, especially across the coastal regions. It will be sunny elsewhere, with temperatures in the 50s-lower 60s in the Midwest, into the 40s-50s in the Northeast.

Happy Halloween, stay safe and have fun!

Winter Starts Early as ECMWF Throws Strong System into Denver, Minneapolis

The 0z ECMWF Model has produced a snowstorm for the Denver region to Minneapolis, something else the GFS has been hinting at for the last couple days. It is another slap in the face for weather forecasters as winter gets an early start. Just as the northeast storm moves out, we turn our heads to the North Plains.
Above, in the ECMWF images, we see the strong low pressure system making its way northeast from Denver to Minneapolis.

Final 2011-2012 Winter Forecast Release Reminder

The FINAL 2011-2012 Winter Forecast will be Released November 5th at 12:00 PM CDT for the national forecast.

Regional times are as follows:

Nationwide Winter Forecast Release: 12:00 PM CDT
Southwest Winter Forecast Release: 12:10 PM CDT
Southeast Winter Forecast Release: 12:20 PM CDT
Northeast Winter Forecast Release: 12:30 PM CDT
Midwest Winter Forecast Release: 12:40 PM CDT
Northwest Winter Forecast Release: 12:50 PM CDT
South Central Plains Winter Forecast Release: 1:00 PM CDT

Introducing the Storm Mode Alert Statement Hiatus (SMASH)

We are formally introducing the SMASH program into The Weather Centre.
When a big storm like the one the Northeast is currently experiencing occurs, we will issue a SMASH Alert, meaning that updates will mainly be confined to our Facebook Page (www.facebook.com/theweathercentre)
We will post PERIODICAL updates on the blog when SMASH is in effect, but our Facebook page will, by far, have the most information during a SMASH storm.

State of Emergency Declared for Connecticut as state has 435,000 without power

The State of Connecticut is under a state of emergency as nearly half a million residents of the state are without power from this crippling snowstorm.

State of Emergency Declared for New Jersey as Half a Million Without Power

A state of emergency is effective for New Jersey as the 'Octogeddon' continues to crush the Northeast.

It has been reported that 1.5 million people are without power so far with this storm.

13z HRRR gives NYC 12-18 inches of snow

The HRRR short range model is giving New York City 12-18 inches of snow- a far cry from the estimated 4.3 inches the NYC NWS Forecast office is putting out.

For regular updates, go to our Facebook Page on the left sidebar.

Snow Falling in Northeast; Totals Look to Move Above 1 foot

Intellicast Radar

Snow is currently falling over the Northeast as a strong low pressure system progresses along, just outside the coast. Rain is currently more prevalent over the Virginia area, something we were surprised at, as we expected more snow coverage in that area. This system will continue to move along and gain strength. Eventually, a changeover to all snow will occur, and it looks like that changeover will be a crucial factor in totals.
The models continue to spit out accumulations well over a foot for many areas. Here's the suite of models for the northeast:

10z HRRR Model 

6z GFS Model

6z NAM model

All 3 models have different solutions to this snowstorm, but in the end we do have to choose which one will be right. On the top we see the new HRRR model run. The HRRR is a short range model. The HRRR indicates widespread areas of 12-18 inches of snow, with very isolated totals up to 24 inches. This appears to be a fairly good solution, but may be a bit too close to the coast. That does remain to be seen, however.
The GFS has been conservative compared to the NAM for a while now, and we feel that the placement of snowfall is correct; not the amounts. We do feel that the NAM/HRRR have a very similar solution, and since the HRRR is a short range model and has just come in with new data, we believe snowfall totals should be around the NAM/HRRR totals.

18z NAM Brings Spots of 20 Inch Totals to Northeast

The 18z NAM is bringing areas of 20 inch totals to the Northeast, and unless the tedious GFS model takes this solution too, it's unlikely there will be a solution in between the NAM/GFS in terms of snowfall amounts. We will bring the totals from the GFS shortly.

Early Season Snowstorm Looks to Crush Northeast under 18 inches of Snow

This is a special briefing brought to you by The Weather Centre on the upcoming early season snowstorm for the Northeast Region this weekend.

Points included in this briefing are:
•Summary of Storm Accumulation Forecasts
•Safety Tips
•Dates for Further Briefings

•STORM ACCUMULATION FORECASTS•

It is a done deal that there will be a snowstorm this weekend in the Northeast. With the models coming in with little to no change on the situation this afternoon, chances for a significant change in the models are now practically nothing. That said, let's get to the accumulation forecasts. We have localized forecasts and regional forecasts. Let's start with localized.

12z NAM Snowfall Forecast for the Northeast

If you don't realize how much snow the red area is, you're about to- Anyone in the red area is subject to 15 inches AT LEAST should this model verify. That's right- 15 inches. This is the NAM model at its best. We see a huge swath of huge snows. The NAM has been showing this for a while now, but not at this much snow for this big an area. Coastal cities will see a large cutoff- that is, extremely varied snowfall totals over a small area. This image is not gospel, though, and we are hesitant to trust it, to say the least. 18 inches is a LOT of snow, and any model that shows more than a foot is dealing with a very large amount of uncertainty from human forecasters that encounter this data. We are watching it, but we feel it is best to wait than trust this huge snowmaker model.

12z GFS Model Snow Forecast for the Northeast

The GFS is definitely more toned down, with only a small patch of red. However, there are large areas of pink and blues. The darkest blue indicates a MINIMUM of 8 inches, with pink at a MINIMUM of 12 inches. Needless to say, the GFS and NAM are on a similar track when saying that big snowfall may occur. At this point in time, we will be more conservative with snowfall totals and go with the GFS, as we don't have enough confidence in the NAM. That may change with the 18z model info coming out around 5 tonight.

Let's move on to region forecasts.

This is the NAM, if you could tell.

This is indeed the NAM model on a regional scale. Notice the large swath of red on the map for the Northeast. Again, this is a very large amount of snow. The thing we are waiting for is for either the GFS to go up in snowfall or for the NAM to go down. That should happen very soon, but if it doesn't, we will take the middle road and assume a foot is a fairly good possibility. However, that will happen when/if we come to it.

•SAFETY TIPS•

This is a very early system storm, and there are a lot of things that are different than a typical coastal storm in the middle of winter. First, trees may still have leaves in the region. With windy conditions putting stress on the trees as leaves act as a sail to a sailboat, the very heavy snow will weigh on the trees and undoubtedly make them break. As these trees break, they may catch on power lines. DO NOT touch downed power lines. They are likely LIVE. You may be electrocuted. 

Here's a few safety tips.

•Don't touch downed power lines. NO MATTER WHAT.

•Take frequent breaks while shoveling- heart attacks have been recorded due to too much work.

•If your power goes out, unplug electrical appliances- the power surge when power comes back on can damage electrical appliances.

•Keep a watchful eye on your trees, and prepare for falling trees on your property.

DATES FOR FURTHER BRIEFINGS

 Tonight- 7:00 PM CDT

Tonight- 8:00 PM CDT

Tomorrow- Frequent, un-timed updates.

6z NAM Puts Down A FOOT of SNOW in Philadelphia

This morning's 6z NAM has come out with potentially a foot of snow for Philadelphia and more just to the north. That pinkish shade you see in the snowfall potential is up to 15 inches of snow.
We would give you the 6z NAM, but that map for snowfall has not updated to 6z yet.
With this potentially historic early snowfall event comes a massive danger. People's property and maybe lives are at risk during this storm.

If you live in the Northeast and are in the path of this storm...
-Have enough food to go for several days without power. Trees and power lines WILL break due to heavy snow.
-Travel if absolutely necessary. It is very possible your car could get hit by a falling branch and you may get injured.
-Watch power lines near your house for signs of straining. If they look like they are sagging under snow, unplug electrical appliances as power may suddenly go out with damaging consequences to electrical appliances.

Go to our Facebook page at www.facebook.com/TheWeatherCentre for daily updates that we cannot publish on the blog.

Snowmageddon Saturday In the Making?!?

Today's 18z NAM has just come in and it is truly spectacular.
We are poring over the NAM and have gathered a few eye-popping images from the run.
The following images are from Hour 54.

First, we have to watch temperatures. With any coastal storm comes the risk of too warm temperatures that may create a rain situation instead of snow. At this time, it appears temperatures should be cold enough for the situation to be a snowy one. Below is the precipitation map from the same hour.

Take a look at that! This low is projected to be very intense, and a huge bulk of high precipitation arriving in the coastal area of the Northeast- where temperatures may be cold enough for snow. Be sure to check back in as the situation unfolds and we get more images of the NAM (snowfall, etc.)

Energy for Upcoming Northeast Snow Currently in Ohio

The energy for the upcoming snowfall in the Northeast is currently in the Indiana/Ohio region and strengthening. Areas of yellow, red and darker colors are the lower pressures on this 500 mb chart. Areas with relatively low amounts of yellow are typically experiencing nicer weather.
This energy currently in the Ohio region will continue to move eastward, come into contact with the Atlantic Ocean, and produce snowfall. Below are current estimates from the NAM model of snowfall within 3 hour time frames.

9 hour forecast snow accumulation

12 hour forecast snow accumulation

Total snowfall should remain in the 2-6 inch range.

Final Winter Forecast comes out November 5th!

The FINAL 2011-2012 Winter Forecast will be Released November 5th at 12:00 PM CDT for the national forecast.

Regional times are as follows:

Nationwide Winter Forecast Release: 12:00 PM CDT
Southwest Winter Forecast Release: 12:10 PM CDT
Southeast Winter Forecast Release: 12:20 PM CDT
Northeast Winter Forecast Release: 12:30 PM CDT
Midwest Winter Forecast Release: 12:40 PM CDT
Northwest Winter Forecast Release: 12:50 PM CDT
South Central Plains Winter Forecast Release: 1:00 PM CDT

0z ECMWF Back to Bombing Out on Northeast for Weekend Storm

For all you snow lovers in the Northeast, I am happy to report that this morning's ECMWF model run has trended back to its original solution from a couple days back. That is, the ECMWF now bombs out the storm while on the coast. ('Bombing out' is a term used for when a low pressure system rapidly drops central pressure and gains strength. Typical occurrence with coastal storms.)
The HPC, which provides some of its own winter graphics, shows the highest reasonable (at least 40%) amount of snowfall possible at 1 inch for much of the Northeast and 4 inches for northern New Jersey.
This probably will not be a huge storm, but there may be a coating of snow on the grass or pavement.

2011 WINTER FORECAST OF INDIA

 2011 WINTER FORECAST FOR INDIA

* AKSHAY DEORAS

SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

METD WEATHER FORECASTS "COOLER THAN NORMAL" WINTER FOR MOST OF STATES IN INDIA EXCEPT NORTH EAST

• CENTRAL AND WESTERN INDIA SHALL FACE COOLER THAN NORMAL WINTER CONSECUTIVELY FOR THE SECOND YEAR
• 2011 WINTER FOR CENTRAL INDIA SHALL BE NEARLY THE SAME AS 2010 WINTER.
• THE RECURRENT LA NINA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS.
• LESS NUMBER OF WESTERN DISTURBANCES THAN NORMAL POSSIBLE.
• CENTRAL AND WESTERN INDIA TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL. 
• NORTH EAST TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FORECASTING BASIC-

The South West Monsoon retreat is almost complete as the Sun is apparently shifting Southwards which plays a major role in the decrease in the average surface air temperature over Central and Northern India prominently. 

The Winter Forecast for India isn't restricted to the local weather phenomena which people believe i.e if there has been strong monsoon there will be good winter and vice versa. It has now been realized that the entire weather of India and many parts of the world is governed by the Global Weather Phenomena of El Nino Southern Oscillation happening in the Equatorial Central Pacific Ocean briefly. 

Though not fully understood, the phenomena is of oscillating sea surface temperatures in equatorial pacific regions between above normal,normal and below normal temperatures. The scientific reason is with the variation in the trade winds blowing eastward at the surface level which leads to changes in sea water level in some areas of Pacific Ocean like Indonesian coast, Australian Coast and offshore Peru.

The phases of ENSO are 

El Nino- When Sea Surface Temperature(SST) of Eq Pacific is warmer than normal

Neutral- When SST is normal

La Nina- When SST is cooler than normal in Eq.Pacific 

It has been widely observed that winters in India go comparatively cooler than normal during La Nina.

Though this will create controversy with what the India Meteorological Dept mentioned in their winter forecast but its true that La Nina creates cooler than normal winters across most of the states of India. 

Explanation to Cooling effect of La Nina

 A possible explanation which I think is the application of concept of intensified jet streams during la nina over Indian continent. 

La Nina is marked by the increased convection in west pacific than east pacific due to strong winds towards west and vice versa at the upper air. 

Thus an amplified subtropical jet stream will tend to bring more cold air in the Indian subcontinent particularly in Northern,Central and . In the case of El Nino, due to less amplified subtropical jet streams the blast of cool air is partial and it brings a noted warmer effect on the surface air temperatures. 

Example- A river is like Jet Stream. When the river's speed is greater it will drag the stones in its way. When speed is less, stones will not be carried with it. Stones can be compared with cold air. 

Current Conditions in Equatorial Pacific - 

As on 24th Oct 2011, Sea Surface Temp anomaly is around -1.5C ( La Nina) in the Equatorial Central Pacific Ocean. 

<<< IMG 2>>>

ENSO FORECAST-

A Moderate La Nina is expected to continue in the pacific ocean at least for the months November,December 2011 and Weak La Nina for Jan 2012. 

Thus the 2011 Winter will be governed by the La Nina

WINTER OUTLOOK: INDIA

Nov,Dec - 2011 & Jan 2012 

Western Disturbances

The total number of western disturbances for this season shall be less than normal. However they will have more intensity. 

In November around 3 brief western disturbances may hit the hilly regions of the north india.

 STATEWISE FORECAST-

Note-

• The forecast is prepared considering datas from weather models.
• The figures estimated are of personal opinion and may vary with the Meteorological Department.
• The variations are predicted considering average temperature. Average temperature for this forecast refers to the average of the temperature ( minimum) recorded in the areas which are used as standard (normal) average temperature.
• The average temperature and record low temperature can have large differences but the value to be considered is average temperature
• Models used are Global Forecasting System ( GFS),JAMSTEC

1] Jammu and Kashmir,Himachal Pradesh,Uttaranchal

  Normal winter conditions will be observed here.The temperature anomaly ( All season Average) shall be around 0.5C less than average temperature.

2] Punjab,Haryana,Chandigarh,New Delhi

The overall temperature anomaly in these regions depend on the western disturbance. However it does appear that these regions will witness ( 0.5C to 0.9C) less than average temperature. 

After the snowfall events, temperature in the plains will drop suddenly but average will be near to the predicted value. 

3] Central,Northern,Eastern Maharashtra,Madhya Pradesh,Rajasthan,Uttar Pradesh

A Significant Winter Effect is likely in these areas as the intensified jet streams coupled with their more south flow than normal shall lead to drop of temperatures! 

The Average temperatures will be ( 1C to 1.5C) less than average normal temperature. 

4] Western and West Central Maharashtra,Gujarat - 

Average Temp will be around 2C less than the normal average temperature. 

5] NORTH-EAST INDIA

The states will witness comparatively warmer winter with average temperature settling 0.5C more than normal average temperature.

Nagpur forecast

The city has already started getting cold conditions. 

• The minimum temperature in November shall settle around 12C as the lowest in the last few weeks of the month
•  Not more than a day of rainfall will take place in the city in Nov and December
•  In December,minimum temperature shall make a low of 7.5C (+ - 1C)  in Nagpur. 

SnowCAST For October 29-30

Strong Storms Roaring Across Illinois

Strong storms are rolling across the Illinois region this evening as a low pressure system connected to a frontal boundary moves eastward, on a mission to bring cooler temperatures to the Midwest. These storms are producing lightning, mainly in central IL.

Image from StrikeStar

StrikeStar lightning services has detected many lightning strikes in the state of Illinois this evening. The storms are moving eastward at this time, and we believe that these storms will exit Illinois by midnight.

Rina Strengthens to Category 2

The NHC is currently forecasting Rina to strengthen to a Category 3 hurricane, considered a major hurricane status. Rina is then forecast to make a sharp turn to the north, potentially striking Mexico. At this time, there is a real concern that Rina will hit Mexico as a major hurricane. If you have family and/or friends in this area under the hurricane warning (dark red), advise them to leave ASAP.

Microwave imagery shows an impressively built Rina, with two strong bands of Rina showing up on this imagery. The eyewall is very well built, and Rina looks very strong and in a conductive environment. I would be surprised if the eyewall was not a brighter red or showed signs of strengthening by tonight.

The last hurricane hunter craft to fly though Rina found widespread tropical storm winds, and the hurricane winds kept very close to the center. This tight wrap of stronger winds should expand by at least a bit as more strengthening occurs in Rina.

Rina Briefing 10/25 AM

We have little time to publish this post, and we do apologize.
However, stay tuned this afternoon  when we will have a full update on Rina and a discussion on a new system to watch!

First Snow of 2011-2012 Winter May be Upon the Northeast

Hour 84 Snow Accumulation 18z GFS

Hour 78 18z GFS (bottom right image is precipitation, top right image is lows/highs. )
Dashed red line on top right is rain/snow line.

The GFS continues to indicate that the first snow of the 2011-2012 winter may be upon the Northeast as soon as October 28th. For the past several days, the GFS has been trending for this solution to come to realization. The ECMWF, considered one of the better models in winter weather forecasting, is bringing over 4 inches of snow to the Northeast. Below is the ECMWF Snowfall for Oct. 27 at 8:00 PM EDT, then October 28 at 2:00 AM EDT.

Get excited, northeast folk- this one looks promising!

Rina Becomes a Hurricane; Florida Still in Threat Zone

Rina has become a hurricane and is currently at Category 1 hurricane status. As per the NHC, Rina is forecast to move westward into a NW direction, take a sudden North turn to apparently avoid hitting land. After that, the NHC believes Rina will move in a general eastward direction. I do not trust the last couple track points on this chart, as they have been changing in the last few image updates the NHC has issued on Rina.

The ensemble members tracking Rina remain in a fairly confused state, but a few models still show this hurricane making its way to Florida. It will still be awhile before we can find a consensus on this Florida track, if there will be one.

Intensity models remain in a high placement for forecasts, with most models extending into Category 2 strength and Category 3 strength. Is it possible a major hurricane could hit Florida? Possibly, but this late in the season? Probably not.

Tropical Storm Rina Moves Towards Possible Landfall, Eventual Potential Florida Threat

The NHC is projecting newly named Tropical Storm Rina for move in a wobbly WNW direction in the next several hours, then making a sharp north turn while nearing the shores of Mexico. It is as if Rina is swerving to avoid crashing into land. As it does so, the NHC forecasts the system to reach hurricane status. At that time, the forecast time frame runs out, so we turn to ensembles, which have an interesting take on the situation.

3 ensembles make it as far as landfalling in southern Florida. most of them follow the general path of the NHC's track, but it appears the time frame runs out for many of the ensembles. About 4 ensembles deviate from the group and go into Mexico, which would significantly reduce strength potentials. We can expect the ensembles to organize themselves out in the short term over the next few model runs of these ensembles.

Check out the ensemble forecasts for the storm's strength. This is the more concerning image. One ensemble member even makes it to Category 4 hurricane strength! The majority keep it around Tropical Storm/Category 1 hurricane strength, but this will be something to watch closely over the coming days for a potential threat to Florida.

Notice on Final 2011-2012 Winter Forecast Release Date

The date of the release has not changed, but times are being aligned.

Schedule for November 5th

Nationwide Winter Forecast Release: 12:00 PM CDT
Southwest Winter Forecast Release: 12:10 PM CDT
Southeast Winter Forecast Release: 12:20 PM CDT
Northeast Winter Forecast Release: 12:30 PM CDT
Midwest Winter Forecast Release: 12:40 PM CDT
Northwest Winter Forecast Release: 12:50 PM CDT
South Central Plains Winter Forecast Release: 1:00 PM CDT

Denver, CO under Winter Storm Watch for 2 feet of Snow

120 hour 12z GFS Snowfall Accumulations

Denver, Colorado is one of the cities affected in a multi-state winter storm watch in effect as up to 2 feet may fall in Wyoming and Colorado! Here is the official NWS Watch from the Cheyenne NWS Forecast office, then the Winter Storm Watch from the Denver forecast office.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS ISSUED A WINTER  
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.   
  
* TIMING...LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
  
* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...18 TO 24 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE  
  SNOWY RANGE...WITH 15 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE  
  RANGE BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE. OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS...SUCH  
  AS CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE...8 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. FINALLY  
  IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FROM SIDNEY TO KIMBALL...5 TO 8 INCHES  
  ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
  
* WINDS/VISIBILITIES...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER  
  GUSTS...COMBINED WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL COULD PRODUCE NEAR ZERO  
  VISIBILITIES FOR COMMUTERS ON INTERSTATES 25 AND 80 IN SOUTHEAST  
  WYOMING AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.  
  
* IMPACTS...SHOULD THE FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MATERIALIZE AS  
  FORECAST...TRAVEL COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED ALONG  
  INTERSTATES 25 AND 80 FROM SIDNEY TO ARLINGTON. ROADS WOULD  
  BECOME VERY SLICK AND HAZARDOUS WHERE SNOWFALL IS HEAVIEST.  
  HUNTERS AND OTHER OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE  
  WINTRY CONDITIONS AND ARE ENCOURAGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION IF  
  VENTURING OUT TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT  
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR  
THE LATEST FORECASTS.  

Denver, CO Watch Below:

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM  
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON.   
  
* TIMING...RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY EVENING  
  AND THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND  
  CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.   
  
* ACCUMULATION/WIND...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 6  
  INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.  
  
* MAIN IMPACT...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ON TREES...RESULTING  
  IN BROKEN TREE LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES.  
  
* OTHER IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW AND SLUSH COVERED  
  ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL.  
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
REMEMBER...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A  
HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER EVENT IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.   
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR THAT COULD IMPACT  
COMMERCIAL POWER OR TRAVEL. STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE OR YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND  
POSSIBLE WARNING CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.